Jacob Rebb’s NFL Week 5 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread: Back Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts This Week

Welcome to our NFL Week 5 predictions and picks against the spread, totals, and more for every single game!

Week 5 of the NFL season should be a good one! With a number of big spreads and high totals, bookmakers are expecting some action from this spread of games. Here are some Week 5 picks and predictions against the spread for the upcoming slate.

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What Are the Week 5 Odds and Betting Lines?

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Prediction

  • Spread
    Commanders -6.5
  • Moneyline
  • Bears +240, Commanders -295
  • Total

Being a Chicago Bears fan must really be an emotional rollercoaster. Twenty-one points. That was the lead they gave up to the Denver Broncos in the second half of last Sunday’s game.

While Justin Fields started to look like a quarterback, their defense gave the game away. Now they face a Washington Commanders team hungry for a win.

Believe it or not, the Commanders aren’t that bad of a team. I get that their defense gave up 415 total yards and 34 points, but it was to the Philadelphia Eagles. To me, this season, giving up those numbers to Philly is forgivable.

The bright side of Sunday’s game is that the Commanders put up 31 points of their own which included 258 yards passing, 107 yards rushing, two fourth-down conversions, and no turnovers. That’s a really solid performance in my book.

Sam Howell has been connecting with Terry McLaurin, and I think that pair spells trouble for the Bears.

Because of these two teams’ defenses, I think we’ll see points here. Neither of these teams possesses any true star defenders, and I think the Bears will be just good enough to put up some points on a Commanders team facing multiple injuries and who are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) so far at home this season.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 44.5 (-105)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction

  • Spread
    Bills -5.5
  • Moneyline
    Jaguars +200, Bills -245
  • Total

Wow. What we just saw from the Buffalo Bills was incredible. It was an absolute showcase of what NFL stars can do. If you live in a cave, the Bills just beat the Miami Dolphins 48-20 just a week after the Dolphins put up 70 on the Denver Broncos. They now take on a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is off to a mediocre start despite high preseason expectations.

The Bills are playing some stellar football right now on both sides of the ball, and that spells trouble for this Jaguars team that has struggled a bit to start the season. Yes, they just held the Atlanta Falcons to seven points, but London is Jacksonville’s second home. The week prior, they gave up 37 points to C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans.

MORE: NFL MVP Odds Update — Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa Are Now Co-Favorites

Since the Bills’ Week 1 stumble, they’ve dominated opponents. Scoring more than 37 points in three straight games, Josh Allen has put up video game numbers, including throwing for 320 yards, four touchdowns (and a rushing TD), and no turnovers.

That equals a really solid 88.9 QBR, and I really think we see a repeat performance here. Buffalo ranks fourth in overall passing and rushing defense. They also rank first in interception and sack rate. With what we’ve seen from the Jags, that could be a serious problem for their offense.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Bills -5.5 (-110) (Best Bet)

Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

  • Spread
    Falcons -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Texans +106, Falcons -124
  • Total

The Falcons are favored in this game, but I don’t agree with the line. I think the Texans are playing great football right now, and Stroud is having one of the best rookie QB seasons in recent memory.

Currently, he has 1,212 yards through the air, including six TDs and no interceptions. He’s playing with loads of confidence and just embarrassed what was a really solid Pittsburgh Steelers defense. The Falcons’ defense is not as good as the Steelers’, in my opinion, and I think Houston can exploit it after Atlanta had a long week of travel.

nfl week 5 predictions
Oct 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) and safety Jalen Pitre (5) react after a play during the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons were a total paper tiger to start the season. Yeah, they started 2-0. That was two long games ago. Desmond Ridder has just 744 yards and three TDs to go with three INTs.

That ranks them dead last in the NFL when it comes to passing yards per game. I think this team will struggle, especially after playing in London and now having to face a motivated Texans team.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Texans ML (+106)

Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction

  • Spread
    Lions -8.5
  • Moneyline
    Panthers +330, Lions -420
  • Total

The Detroit Lions are one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL through the first four weeks. They currently rank eighth in NFL offensive pass ranking with 249.8 yards per game and 10th in rushing with 136.5 ypg.

Detroit currently ranks 11th in the PFN Defense Rankings, and now they take on a Panthers team that struggled against a mediocre Vikings defense.

Carolina managed to score just 13 points against Minnesota. With just 149 yards passing and 83 yards on the ground, I don’t think we’ll see much improvement from last week, especially against a Lions defense allowing just three yards per carry. Panthers QB Bryce Young ranks 30th amongst NFL quarterbacks and will need to start learning faster if the Panthers want to have any chance of winning games.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Lions -8.5 (-115)

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction

  • Spread
    Colts -1.5
  • Moneyline
    Titans -104, Colts -112
  • Total

The Indianapolis Colts had a pretty incredible second-half comeback to force overtime versus Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. Unfortunately, they fell short.

The Tennessee Titans, on the other hand, had a dominant performance against the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that was projected to be close. They held the Bengals to just 165 yards passing and 72 yards on the ground. A surprising performance from this Titans defense, who had just given up 27 and 24 points, respectively, the two weeks prior.

I get the Colts are at home, but I think that’s the only reason they’re favored here. I really think Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry punish Indianapolis’ defense, and they steal a divisional game on the road — in an AFC South that currently has a four-way tie.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 42.5 (-110)

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction

  • Spread
    Dolphins -10.5
  • Moneyline
    Giants +430, Dolphins -590
  • Total

Take this line now. It’s going to go up, but at this number, I believe the Dolphins cover with ease. The New York Giants just got embarrassed in prime time by the Seattle Seahawks, and Tua Tagovailoa wants to beat up on lesser opponents, especially after Miami’s blowout loss to Buffalo last week.

MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 5

The Dolphins’ defense had no answer for Josh Allen and the Bills last week. I do think they let the Giants get on the board in this one — at least in garbage time.

With that in mind, I’m looking towards the over here. In general, keep this one simple. Ignore last week’s game and then look at this matchup through that lens. You would take the Dolphins in a heartbeat.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Dolphins -10.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction

  • Spread
    Ravens -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Steelers +158, Ravens -188
  • Total
    Over 38.5

I need to see some drastic improvement across the board from this Steelers team before I consider taking them. I thought the defense — led by T.J. Watt — would at least be decent this season. However, they looked soft last week against the Texans.

Now, Pittsburgh faces its arch-rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, who may not have many weapons but sure do know how to use the ones they have.

The Ravens did not allow a touchdown from Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns last week, a team stacked with offensive weapons.

Now, Baltimore takes on an anemic Steelers offense that really has no true threat. These games are always close, so this pick scares me, but I think it’s the Ravens’ year to win the AFC North. It started last week beating the Browns and continues this week with a convincing win over the Steelers.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Ravens ML (-188)

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Prediction

  • Spread
    Patriots -1.5
  • Moneyline
    Saints +102, Patriots -120
  • Total

Both of these teams experienced bad losses last week. The Saints did not score a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and their 23rd-ranked offense just could not find a rhythm.

Maybe playing three different quarterbacks didn’t help, but New Orleans’ defense got outplayed throughout the game and allowed Baker Mayfield to shine with 246 passing yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. I’ll need to see the Saints start to perform more in multiple departments before I feel comfortable enough to put a bet on them.

The Patriots lost 38-3 to the Cowboys (another game in which a team didn’t score a TD). Yes, the Patriots have a 1-3 record, but they held the Eagles to 25 points, the Dolphins to 24, and the Jets to 10. Besides last week, their defense has been playing pretty well, considering who they were playing.

With the Saints playing on the road, I could see them seriously struggle in this one. The fact that neither of these teams scored a TD in Week 4 tells me we might see them try to make up for that. I don’t see a crazy shootout, but I think we at least get to 41 points to go over the 40.5.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 40.5

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction

  • Spread
    Bengals -3
  • Moneyline
    Bengals -166, Cardinals +140
  • Total

We thought we would see a better performance from the Bengals and Joe Burrow last week, but they couldn’t score a touchdown. Burrow had just 165 passing yards against a mediocre Titans defense.

nfl week 5 predictions
Oct 1, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) is hit by Tennessee Titans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (2) as he throws the ball during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinals lost again. A blowout loss to the 49ers exposed how much work that Arizona has to do. Joshua Dobbs didn’t look terrible with 265 passing yards, two TDs, and 48 yards rushing. And with the lack of defense we’ve seen from the Bengals, I think he can take it to them and put up some points.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Cardinals +3 (-115)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams Prediction

  • Spread
    Eagles -4.5
  • Moneyline
    Eagles -215, Rams +180
  • Total

The Los Angeles Rams almost blew a game that they had been dominating. They survived in overtime, but they allowed the less-than-average Colts to claw their way back into that game.

That’s not going to fly against the Eagles. Even though we’ve seen a bit of a resurgence from Matthew Stafford, this Philadelphia team is tough to beat across the board.

MORE: The Rams Are the Only Unbeaten Team Against the Spread

The Eagles almost blew their game, too. They allowed the Commanders to force overtime, which Philadelphia was able to escape with a field-goal victory.

Nevertheless, Jalen Hurts and company looked great. Hurts finished 319 yards passing, two touchdowns, and added 34 yards on the ground. I don’t think the Rams’ defense will have an answer for an Eagles offense that is really starting to click on all cylinders.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Eagles -4.5 (-105)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction

  • Spread
    Chiefs -5.5
  • Moneyline
    Chiefs -245, Vikings +200
  • Total

I love this spot for Patrick Mahomes. The Vikings don’t pressure the QB, ranking 28th in the NFL in defensive line pressure. And after their performance last week, the Chiefs aren’t going to be happy.

The Vikings are another team that I look at as paper tigers, and I believe the Chiefs expose that this week. Honestly, I see a double-digit victory from Kansas City in this get-right spot.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Chiefs -5.5 (-105)

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Prediction

  • Spread
    Broncos -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Jets +108, Broncos -126
  • Total

The Jets are the worst team in football. DO NOT let their performance last week confuse you. The Chiefs took their foot off the gas and showed mercy to Zach Wilson.

You won’t get that same look from Russel Wilson and this Broncos team. Denver is another team starting to click after coming from behind against Chicago, and they’re in a great spot to make it two victories in a row.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Broncos ML (-126)

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction

  • Spread
    49ers -3.5
  • Moneyline
    Cowboys +148, 49ers -188
  • Total

I think 3.5 points is just way too many for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense. This will be the 49ers’ first real test, and I also think this will be a shootout. Both of these are efficient, dominating offenses that can compete with any defense.

This is my game of the week, and I’ll enjoy sitting back and watching the points rack up.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

  • Spread
    Packers -1.5
  • Moneyline
    Packers -130, Raiders +110
  • Total

These are two mediocre teams that still have a lot left to prove. Jordan Love got a win last week while the Raiders took an L to the Los Angeles Chargers. I don’t have much of a read in this game except for a low-scoring slugfest between two teams with offenses still trying to figure it out.

NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)

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