Well, we don’t have a Black Friday game or three Thanksgiving games to watch, but we could see the first team punch its ticket to the 14-team postseason this week. Also, we have 13 games to bet on, which is really why you are reading this. So, let’s dive into my NFL Week 13 predictions and picks against the spread.
NFL Week 13 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
Seahawks +350, Cowboys -450
Much like the narrative following the Miami Dolphins around, the Cowboys have been beating up on below .500 teams, with all eight wins coming against teams with a losing record.
In the two tougher games, they got blown out by San Francisco and lost a close one to division-rival Philly. I do think the Cowboys, like the Dolphins, are contenders, but they also have to beat some good teams before I lay nine points with them.
Recent wins have been impressive for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, but they also came against the Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants. Seattle is coming off back-to-back losses and will need this one a whole lot more than Dallas, and they are better than they played last week, so I will take the nine points.
Pick: Seahawks +9
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Odds
Chargers -255, Patriots +210
The Chargers shouldn’t be favored by six over anyone, but I can’t advise taking the Patriots either. The days of taking a Bill Belichick team as a home dog ended when Brady left.
I also don’t see this game getting into the 40s with how bad the Patriots’ offense has been, but the Chargers have the firepower to light anyone up, so I will isolate the Patriots’ awful offense and bet them to go under 17.5 points with a little juice (-125).
The Patriots, who scored a total of 13 points in the last two games, have failed to cross 17 points in nine of their 11 games this season. The Chargers’ defense isn’t great, but they showed some improvement last week vs. the Baltimore Ravens.
Pick: Patriots team total u17.5 (-125) (Best Bet)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
Cardinals +198, Steelers -240
Pittsburgh’s new-look offense did put up over 400 yards last week but still could not score. Will it translate to points this week against the two-win Cardinals that just allowed the Los Angeles Rams to score 37 points? Possible, but I don’t have high confidence either way.
The Cards looked better with Kyler Murray back for a few games and then got blown out in L.A. I lean toward the Cardinals and points, but it’s mostly a pass here.
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Odds
Broncos +154, Texans -184
It’s hard not to respect how Sean Payton and the Broncos have turned this around after a horrible 1-5 start. They’ve won five straight, three of which have come against current playoff teams.
But a word of caution … four of the five wins have come at home in the Mile High City, while this one is on the road at a good Houston team. The two are battling for a playoff spot, so I can see it going either way.
The biggest difference for Denver has been on defense, where they have gone from allowing 70 in one game to five of their last six games going under the total. And the one that went over was last week’s 41 versus Cleveland. I don’t see this one reaching 48.
Pick: Under 47.5
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Odds
Lions -198, Saints +166
A matchup of two teams not playing their best football right now, so one of them is going to right the ship. But which one?
The Lions struggled against the Chicago Bears and then were lit up by Green Bay on Thanksgiving, while the Saints have struggled in back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons.
The bigger issue with New Orleans is injuries to a lot of their skill positions, leaving not many weapons for Derek Carr to throw to. I have more faith in the Lions figuring this out and getting back to their winning ways.
Pick: Lions -4.5
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
Colts -118, Titans +100
The Colts have quietly moved into the seventh spot in the AFC playoff standings, winners of three straight.
The Titans had a nice win over the lowly Carolina Panthers but are still a bottom-feeder team. Even with Jonathan Taylor missing a few weeks, I like what the Colts are doing on offense, and their defense has held opponents to 13 PPG during the three-game winning streak.
Indy won the first matchup 23-16, and I expect a similar result here.
Pick: Colts -1.5 (Best Bet)
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets Odds
Falcons -146, Jets +124
Since their bye week, the Jets have played 20 quarters, with two offensive touchdowns: one a garbage time TD with the game virtually over versus Miami on Black Friday and the other a dump-off that went 50 yards by Breece Hall. Simply put, their offense is horrific, no matter if it’s Tim Boyle or Zach Wilson behind center.
I took the under on 16.5 team points last week and will do it again this week. Until the Jets figure out how to move the ball on offense, I will continue taking this prop against any average defense. They couldn’t get there last week, even with a pick-six.
Pick: Jets team total under 16.5 (Best Bet)
Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders Odds
Dolphins -480, Commanders +370
The Commanders’ defense is allowing a league-high 29.2 points per game this season and now faces the best offense in the league.
The Dolphins’ offense, while not as efficient as it was in the first half of the season, must be licking their chops watching film this week after seeing what Prescott and the Cowboys did last week. Miami’s team total is 29.5, and since Washington is allowing this on average, it’s an easy play.
I will also continue playing WR1 overs against the Commanders, which this week is the league’s top wideout in Tyreek Hill. At press time, his prop wasn’t listed, but I will take the over on whatever it is.
Pick: Miami team total over 29.5, Tyreek Hill over 97.5 receiving yards
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
Panthers +188, Buccaneers -225
As bad as the Panthers’ 1-9 start has been, they’ve been almost as bad ATS, going 1-7-2. A new interim coach might make a difference, but are you betting that? No. Also not laying 5.5 with a Bucs team that has looked good once in the last eight weeks.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
49ers -146, Eagles +124
Easily the game of the week to watch here — a rematch of last year’s NFC title game. I actually believe both teams are better than they were when they met last January, which is a scary thought.
People have questioned this line all week as the Eagles are the first team with a 10-1 record or better to be a home dog since 2004 (not counting Week 17 when a lot of starters are not playing). Simply put, the Niners have looked like the better team when healthy, going 8-0 and winning by an average of 20 points per game when the offense is at full strength. The three-game losing streak featured missed games by Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams.
The Eagles, while 10-1, have squeaked by plenty of teams this year, but they have won in all the tight spots, including the big comeback last week versus Buffalo. And it’s because of that fact — that they refuse to lose, get a majority of the calls, and seem to win every game — that I am not betting against them.
I might feel different in January, but I’ll take the home team with the points this week.
Pick: Eagles +3
Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds
Browns +152, Rams -180
The Rams put up monster numbers against the Cardinals but won’t have that same success against a tough defense like the Browns’. Cleveland continues to struggle on offense, no matter who the QB is, and now faces a Rams defense that has allowed 30 total points in back-to-back division wins. I don’t see this being a high-scoring game.
Pick: Under 39.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
Chiefs -290, Packers +235
As predicted in this column last week, all the Chiefs’ offense needed was a date with the Las Vegas Raiders to get back on track. Believe it or not, that was only the second game since September in which the Chiefs cracked 30 points. With the Chiefs’ offense maybe being back, and the Packers’ offense starting to gel under Jordan Love, I am going with a rare over here as I was surprised that it was low 40s.
Pick: Over 42.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bengals +300, Jaguars -4375
Even though the Bengals are still in the playoff hunt, you can see the writing on the wall when it comes to their season without Joe Burrow. The offense looked lost last week against an average Steelers team and will have to score to keep up with a good Jacksonville offense. Outside of the dud against the Niners, Jacksonville has won seven of eight, scoring at least 20 in all the wins. I don’t love the hook, so will look for 7s.
Pick: Jaguars -7 (-125)
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