The Minnesota Vikings have officially put their season back on track. Following their 27-24 upset victory over the Detroit Lions on Sunday, the Vikings’ playoff odds have significantly increased, according to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter. This win has set the stage for a legitimate NFC North race in the second half of the season.
Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances Double After Week 9 Win
Before Sunday’s win, Minnesota’s playoff odds sat at 18% with an average projected record of 7.7 wins. Following the victory in Detroit, those odds have jumped to 38.7%, with the team now projected to finish around 8.7 wins.
The win also had a significant impact on the division race. Minnesota’s chances to win the NFC North quadrupled, climbing from 4.1% to 16.6%, while its odds to earn the conference’s top seed increased from 0.3% to 1.1%.
Although these odds are small, the context is important. In beating the Lions, the Vikings defeated an NFC favorite. Only two weeks prior, they were a single score away from the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles.
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In short, one statement win has put the Vikings squarely back in the NFC playoff picture. The Lions entered Week 9 as heavy favorites, leading the division and boasting one of the NFC’s top offenses. Minnesota not only handed them a home loss but also improved to 2-0 in divisional road games with second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy under center. That alone shifted the playoff math dramatically.
By winning both the turnover and rushing battles, the Vikings strengthened key tiebreakers that could come into play down the stretch. The 20% swing in playoff probability underscores the critical nature of each divisional matchup, particularly with a rematch against Detroit still looming in Minneapolis later this year.
The team’s Super Bowl chances remain slim, up modestly from 0.6% to 2.0%, but their climb in both divisional and postseason odds reflects real momentum in head coach Kevin O’Connell’s locker room.
At 4-4, the Vikings now sit within striking distance of first place in the NFC North. The Packers were upset at home against the Panthers. Though the Bears held on to beat the Bengals, the division is still very much undecided.
With a home matchup against a strong AFC opponent next week, Minnesota can solidify its playoff standing even further with another win.
For now, the data says what fans in Minnesota already feel: the Vikings are very much alive in the NFC North race.