The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 17 with as much pressure and opportunity as any team in the AFC. Winning out would keep them firmly in play for the No. 1 seed and would also maintain control over the AFC South race.
What Are the Playoff Implications for the Jaguars and the Colts?
A victory by the Jaguars this week would make it extremely likely that a playoff game is hosted in Duval. It would also position Jacksonville for a possible first-round bye if results elsewhere break their way. This is the type of game that defines how a season is remembered.
The stakes are just as clear on the other side, but the emotional energy is different. The Indianapolis Colts have already been eliminated from playoff contention following Houston’s win over the Chargers. What began as a promising season has turned into a collapse.
Indianapolis has gone 1–6 in its past seven games and is currently on a five-game losing streak. The late-season decision to bring Philip Rivers out of retirement has failed to rescue the season. Week 18 against Houston will simply be a finale. For Indianapolis, this game is not about playoff positioning. For Jacksonville, it could determine the path to the Super Bowl.
Injury Outlook and Depth Concerns
Injuries will play a significant role in how this matchup unfolds. Jacksonville will be without Bhayshul Tuten after finger surgery. Patrick Mekari is out following the back injury he suffered in Week 16, removing a key piece of the offensive line. Danny Striggow remains unavailable due to a knee injury.
These absences matter because Jacksonville has leaned heavily on depth all season and now must do so again in games with the highest stakes of the year.
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— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 28, 2025
The backfield rotation becomes more defined with Tuten sidelined. Travis Etienne is expected to handle a heavy workload, both as a runner and potentially as a receiving threat. LeQuint Allen will continue operating as the second option, and his ability to spell Etienne without a drop in production will be important across four quarters.
The right guard position is also unsettled in Mekari’s absence, with Cole Van Lanen, Walker Little, and Wyatt Milum all having logged time there. The staff will need to decide whether stability or rotation serves them better against an aggressive defensive front.
Center could become the most impactful injury of all. Robert Hainsey is questionable with a groin injury and may miss the game. If he is unable to play, rookie Jonah Monheim would start in one of the most pressure-filled moments of the season.
A rookie center working with a quarterback who controls protections in a hostile environment makes the assignment even more challenging. Interior continuity will be critical for both the run game and Trevor Lawrence’s comfort in the pocket.
Indianapolis is even more depleted. Starting center Tanor Bortolini is out with a concussion, which disrupts the protection calls in front of Rivers. Star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is out due to a neck injury, removing the team’s most dominant interior defender. That loss directly affects the Jaguars’ inside running attack and their ability to keep Lawrence clean from interior collapse.
Sauce Gardner is listed as questionable with a calf injury and may either be limited or unavailable. If Gardner cannot play, Indianapolis loses its top cover defender against one of the league’s hottest passing attacks. Even if he plays, a compromised calf for a cornerback can be exploited by quick-cut receivers and double moves. The reality is simple. Jacksonville is banged up, but Indianapolis is missing several key players from its roster.
How Jacksonville Matches Up Offensively
For the Jaguars to win, the most direct path runs through the arm of Lawrence. Jacksonville already dominated this Indianapolis secondary earlier in the year, and the matchup still favors the Jaguars. Lawrence has played the best football of his career over the past month, and he is doing it with command, accuracy, and control of the offense. A healthy receiving corps creates matchup problems at all levels of the field.
Liam Coen’s play designs have consistently emphasized spacing, motion, and leverage advantages. Those concepts matter against a Colts defense that could be without Gardner and Buckner. Expect Jacksonville to stress the secondary horizontally early, then attack vertically once Indianapolis is forced to adjust. Early down efficiency through the air will open lanes for Etienne later in the game.
Protection will be a focal point. With moving pieces at right guard and a potential change at center, Jacksonville needs to rely on quick rhythm throws early to keep the line settled. Screens, RPO looks, and fast-breaking in-breaking routes can neutralize Indianapolis’ pass rush. Once the line finds rhythm, the playbook widens, and deep shots become viable. If Lawrence is kept upright, Jacksonville should control the tempo.
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The red zone will decide whether this game is competitive. Field goals keep an underdog alive. Touchdowns end hope. Jacksonville has improved in situational efficiency during its six-game winning streak. Spacing Etienne and using motion receivers to create natural picks has opened windows near the goal line. Against a depleted Colts defense, the expectation is execution, not struggle.
The Defensive Challenge for Jacksonville
Defensively, Jacksonville faces a different type of challenge. Rivers is no longer in his physical prime, but he remains one of the most experienced signal callers in the league. He reads leverage, identifies blitz looks, and knows where to go with the ball before the snap. That makes communication in Jacksonville’s secondary crucial. Any blown assignment becomes a free first down.
The primary threat remains Jonathan Taylor. He is one of the best running backs in the NFL and has the ability to control the game on his own. If Taylor is able to consistently generate positive yardage on early downs, Indianapolis will stay ahead of schedule, and Rivers can live in manageable situations. That is where he is most comfortable, throwing intermediate timing routes rather than deep shots.
Jacksonville must emphasize disciplined run fits. Overcommitting bodies to stop Taylor will create voids behind the linebackers that Rivers can exploit. The goal is not simply stacking the box. The goal is to force Taylor to bounce runs sideways and into pursuit. Containment and clean tackling will matter more than splash plays.
Pass rush discipline will also be important. Rivers wins when he knows exactly where pressure is coming from. Disguised looks, late rotating safeties, and simulated pressures can disrupt his rhythm without overly exposing the secondary. If Jacksonville can put Indianapolis behind the sticks, Rivers will be forced into longer developing plays that favor Jacksonville’s rushers.
How Jacksonville Could Lose
The Jaguars’ risk path is clear. If Indianapolis dictates tempo with Taylor, the game changes. A Colts lead allows them to shorten the game, limit Lawrence’s possessions, and lean entirely on the run. That formula reduces the talent gap between the teams and increases variance.
Taylor is capable of breaking a long run at any time, and one explosive play can flip momentum. According to PFSN’s RB Impact Rankings, Taylor is the second-best running back in the league this season and is clearly this team’s biggest threat.
Turnovers would also open the door for Indianapolis. Lawrence has done an excellent job protecting the football recently. Maintaining that discipline is essential. Sudden-change situations bring out the best in teams with nothing to lose. If Jacksonville plays clean, Indianapolis will need to string together long drives, which is not something they have consistently shown an ability to do during their losing streak.
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The wildcard remains Rivers. He is experienced, competitive, and fearless. If Jacksonville allows him to settle into rhythm through the intermediate passing game, he can still pick apart soft coverage. The Jaguars must make him uncomfortable without losing contain on Taylor. Failure in that balance is the one scenario where Indianapolis can pull an upset.
Final Prediction
Jacksonville is entering this matchup as the hotter team, the team with more talent, and the team with more urgency. The Jaguars have won six straight games and have already handled Indianapolis convincingly this season. They are playing for playoff seeding, potentially for the top overall seed, and for the chance to keep postseason football in Duval.
The Colts, meanwhile, are playing out the end of a season that slipped away. They are injured in critical areas, are struggling offensively, and are facing one of the league’s best quarterbacks at the peak of his confidence. Even accounting for the unpredictability of rivalry matchups, the gap in the current states of the teams is significant.
Expect Jacksonville to control the game through the air early, withstand Indianapolis’ best rushing efforts, and pull away as the game progresses. The Jaguars have too much at stake and too much momentum to let this one slip away.
Final Prediction: Jaguars win 34-20
