The time has come. The Green Bay Packers will face the Chicago Bears at 7 p.m. at Soldier Field on Saturday in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. It’ll be the third meeting this year, and the third playoff meeting all-time. Both teams have split the previous two playoff meetings and the regular-season meetings earlier this season.
The two matchups this season were important, ultimately deciding the NFC North division, but now the Wild Card matchup will determine who continues in the playoffs and who goes home.
What Are the Packers’ and Bears’ Major Injuries To Note?
The Packers will be without receiver Dontayvion Wicks, while offensive tackle Zach Tom, safety Javon Bullard, and backup quarterback Malik Willis are all questionable.
The Bears will be without cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson, linebacker Amen Ogbongbemiga, and defensive lineman Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, but will welcome back receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze from injury.
Defensive back Kyler Gordon is also questionable, and would be coming off injured reserve if he plays. The feeling for the Packers is that Willis will be available, and Tom and Bullard will play, but nothing is confirmed.
The Packers Will Win If Caleb Williams Is Contained, Josh Jacobs Gets Going
This is the third meeting, and both teams have seen what creates success against each other. With quarterback Jordan Love healthy, the Packers should be able to move the ball.
However, Green Bay needs to lean on its bell-cow in the backfield to sustain drives and give its defense a rest. The Packers can’t score every time with one or two explosive plays, or the defense won’t stand a chance against the Bears’ offense.
In the first meeting, running back Josh Jacobs had 20 carries for 86 yards, Love had 234 passing yards and three touchdowns, and the Packers won, 28-21. Love ranked No. 4 in the NFL, according to PFSN Quarterback Impact metrics, in Week 14’s win, and he’s at his best when his counterpart in the backfield is having success.
The Packers did alright at containing Williams in the first game, but he still managed to escape the pocket and hurt the defense. However, the game ended when Williams rolled left and threw an interception.
With edge rusher Micah Parsons out, the Packers need to keep Williams in the pocket and create pressure as a unit, which is easier said than done.
Green Bay will need somebody in the middle to step up (DTs Coldy Wooden, Karl Brooks, Nazir Stackhouse, or Warren Brinson), and it needs edge rushers Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, and Kingley Enagbare to play better than they have for most of the season.
In the Packers’ win, they sacked Williams once. In their loss, they didn’t sack Williams. It goes deeper than getting him on the ground, but if the Packers have at least two sacks on Saturday, they have a good chance of winning.
The Bears Will Win If the Packers Can’t Get Pressure
This is a double whammy. If the Packers can’t get pressure, the Bears will stay ahead of the sticks, which means Chicago will be able to lean on its run game. That’s when the Bears are at their best. Chicago ranks No. 3 in the NFL in rushing yards, according to PFSN Offense Impact metrics.
If the Bears get the run game going, it’s going to be a long day for the Packers. But there are adjustments you can make on defense to shut down the run game. If the Packers can’t get pressure and contain Williams in the pocket without blitzing, there’s less flexibility for defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to find ways to shut down the run game.
The Bears’ running backs had 22 carries for 108 yards in Chicago’s win in Week 16, and Williams had 250 passing yards and two touchdowns.
In the Packers’ Week 14 win, the Bears still had 120 rushing yards from their running backs, but most of it came in the second half during the Bears’ comeback, and Williams had just 186 passing yards. He did have two touchdowns, but he also had an interception, which sealed the game.
That game also included Parsons. The second meeting did not have Parsons, but it also only had Love for part of the game. However, Willis came in and did everything he could to win the game. It was ultimately just a meltdown by Green Bay.
Who Wins the Game?
I think the Packers will go into Soldier Field and win the third matchup of the season. Jacobs will run for 85-plus yards and a touchdown, and Love will throw two touchdowns. The Packers have dominated this rivalry for the last decade or so, and the Bears acted as if they had won the Super Bowl after beating the Packers and securing the division title.
Green Bay has talked a lot this week, but I think the way the last game ended is extra motivation for the cheeseheads. Both of these teams are very evenly matched, and I think the Packers get the edge on Saturday.
Jacobs said this week he’s as healthy as he’s been in six weeks, and Love has been the better quarterback this year, when healthy. The Packers’ defense is the most significant question mark for me, but I trust Hafley has put a plan together to adjust from the last game.
I think the Packers defense bends but doesn’t break, the Bears get a touchdown and a couple of field goals, and Green Bay stretches its lead in the second half. The Packers win the Wild Card Round matchup, 24-13, to advance to the Divisional Round.
