Coming off a win over the Houston Texans, the Denver Broncos play the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10 on a short week on “Thursday Night Football.” The victory is the Broncos’ sixth straight after starting 1-2. A win over the Raiders would put Denver at 8-2 before a showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11.
Let’s look at the keys to the game between the Broncos and the Raiders.
Broncos’ Defensive Line vs. Raiders’ Offensive Line
The Raiders lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9 after going for two in overtime and failing to convert. The real shock to the system, though, will be how fast EDGE rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper pressure Geno Smith in Week 10. As of this writing, the Broncos’ defensive line ranks fourth in pass-rush win rate, while the Raiders are middle of the pack in pass-block win rate. The Broncos are 12th in run-stop win rate as well.
That’s important because the Raiders can’t just avoid the pass rush by running Ashton Jeanty into the ground.
Broncos’ Passing Offense vs. Raiders’ Pass Defense
Likewise, the Broncos rank first in pass-block win rate, while the Raiders’ defense is 16th in pass-rush win rate. So, to quote Smith, Bo Nix is going to be “cooking steaks” behind his offensive line in Week 10. Look for Nix to bounce back against an inferior defense like the Cowboys’ from Week 8, since he’s not facing an elite unit like the Texans from Week 9.
Most of the time, football isn’t this simple: the 2-6 Raiders are bad, and the 7-2 Broncos are good. Expect a Week 8-type result in Week 10 from Nix. Yes, he had a poor game in Week 9. And yes, the Texans’ defense is one of the best in the league. On the other side of the coin, though, the Raiders’ defense currently allows the 14th-most yards per game, including the 13th-most passing yards per game.
Nix’s PFSN QB Impact Score won’t stay down for long. As of Week 8, he’s ranked 14th. Look for the Broncos to reach 8-2 in Week 10, and then we can circle back to how good Nix truly is.
Elsewhere, the Broncos hope Pat Surtain II can expedite his return for the matchup against the Chiefs in Week 11, although it’s unlikely. Surtain II is projected to be out four to six weeks, according to NFL insiders, making a Week 13 return more likely. Denver has a bye in Week 12.