Last week, the Broncos beat the Las Vegas Raiders on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 10. Against a better offense, though, the Broncos probably lose. Quarterback Bo Nix didn’t air the ball out, but stole the win to extend Denver’s winning streak to seven games. The 8-2 Broncos now play the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. Here are the keys to the game.
The Broncos Win if RJ Harvey Totals 100-plus Scrimmage Yards
J.K. Dobbins, No. 14 in PFSN’s RB Impact Score, is out, but the Broncos have a starter-round pick, a draft pick in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, waiting in the wings. Enter RJ Harvey. He has six total touchdowns on 75 touches. Because of the matchup, the Broncos’ run game shouldn’t miss a beat in Week 11.
The Broncos are No. 14 in run block win rate, while the Chiefs are dead last in run stop win rate. It’s wheels up for Harvey this week.
The Broncos Lose if the Defense Gives Up More Than 20 Points
Football comes down to individual matchups. That said, nickel cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian, No. 65 in PFSN’s CB Impact Score, is going to have his hands full this week with slot wide receiver Rashee Rice. For reference, there are 96 starting cornerbacks in the league, as offenses often employ 11 personnel, featuring one running back and one tight end, more than 50% of the time. That means McMillian is middle of the pack among CBs.
Rice, meanwhile, has been on a heater since returning to the lineup. He has 20 receptions for 215 yards and three touchdowns in three games.
Elsewhere, Riley Moss must keep up with Xavier Worthy on the boundary. Sitting in zone allows Rice to feast in between the 20s, the offense’s 20-yard line to the defense’s 20-yard line, and puts too much weight on the red zone defense, although the end zone is a 12th defender.
So, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is going to have to mix and match this week. He’ll have to implement a bend-but-don’t-break defense against the Chiefs. Joseph should start out sending five or more pass rushers with the complete safety in single high playing center fielder. Everything after that will be based on in-game adjustments.