The 9-2 Denver Broncos downed the 3-8 Washington Commanders 27-26 in Week 13 on “Sunday Night Football.” The win was the former’s ninth in a row. In fact, the Broncos’ odds to win the AFC West jumped to 89.8%, according to PFSN Analytics. And Denver’s odds to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference jumped to 38.2% as well. The streak, though, has caught one analyst’s eye.
Updated Look at How Deep Broncos’ Run Can Be
NFL.com’s Jeffri Chadiha released his weekly in-season column on Monday. In it, he makes his “slowly evolving Super Bowl pick” at the end. This week, Chadiha picked the Broncos to represent the AFC Conference in the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams. The Broncos are the current No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference, while the Rams are the current No. 2 seed in the NFC Conference.
That said, the Broncos just have to beat the Las Vegas Raiders — again — in Week 14 to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference for good, assuming the New England Patriots win on “Monday Night Football.” Because the Patriots have a bye in Week 14, the Broncos, with a win, would have the better conference record (7-2 to 6-2). Both teams would be 11-2 in this scenario.
The Broncos are No. 14 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score and No. 2 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score. The Rams, meanwhile, are No. 2 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score and No. 5 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score as well. Now, let’s take an updated look at who the Broncos have to play in the playoffs to prove Chadiha right.
We all know the playoffs don’t start today, but if they did, the Broncos would play the Buffalo Bills in a rematch from the 2024 NFL Playoffs. The Broncos’ offense totals the 14th-most rushing yards per game, while the Bills’ defense allows the third-most rushing yards per game. This is a matchup Broncos quarterback Bo Nix may scramble more than usual to offset the loss of running J.K. Dobbins — and to exploit the matchup.
The Bills’ defense allows the fewest passing yards per game as well. So, the Bills’ defense is run funnel. It’s so hard to pass on them that opposing offenses funnel rushing attempts into the game plan. That said, the Bills’ offense totals the most rushing yards per game and the 10th-most passing yards per game. The Broncos’ defense, meanwhile, allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game and ninth-fewest passing yards per game.
It’s strength on strength on the offensive side of the ball for the Bills, but the Broncos’ offense can exploit the Bills’ defense’s rushing defense — even without Dobbins. Then the Broncos would now face the No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars — assuming all of the higher-seeded teams win. The latter allows the fewest rushing yards per game on defense but the ninth-most passing yards per game.
That said, the Jaguars total the ninth-most rushing yards per game but are No. 21 in passing yards per game. The Broncos’ defense can key in on the Jaguars’ run game, while Nix can keep establishing the pass in this matchup. All this to say that the Broncos and the Patriots likely meet in the AFC Championship game.
The Patriots’ offense totals the third-most passing yards per game but is No. 20 in rushing yards per game. The Patriots’ defense, meanwhile, allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game and is No. 18 in passing yards per game as well. This game is a coin flip because it’ll come down to both passing offenses. Chadiha’s pick may come to fruition, though.
