After defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, the Denver Broncos are 9-2 and the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference. The Broncos are on an eight-game winning streak. That said, the win sets up the Broncos for a run at the AFC West title and home-field advantage in the conference. Let’s examine the AFC West to see the Broncos’ odds at doing so.
The Broncos’ Chances at the AFC West Title and Home-Field Advantage
After a Week 12 bye, the Broncos have six games left in the 2025 season. Denver plays the Washington Commanders in Week 13, the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14, the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17, and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. Above are the Broncos’ chances to win each game, according to PFSN Analytics.
Realistically, it looks like the Broncos are a good bet to win four of their final six games, according to PFSN Analytics. Week 15 vs. the Packers and Week 17 vs. the Chiefs, meanwhile, are coin flips. That said, a conservative estimate is that the Broncos finish the season 13-4.
That includes a win over the Chargers, who are 7-4 and two games behind the Broncos in the AFC West. So, that means the Chargers would finish no better than 12-5. Even with a loss to the Chiefs in Week 17, Kansas City can not finish better than 12-5 as well. The Raiders are behind everyone in the division at 2-7.
On the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference, it comes down to the Broncos, the New England Patriots (9-2), and the Indianapolis Colts (8-2). The Patriots and Broncos don’t play each other this season, but the Colts hold a head-to-head tiebreaker win over the Broncos.
The Patriots play the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens, the New York Jets, and the Miami Dolphins to close out the season.
The Colts, meanwhile, play the Chiefs, the Texans, the Jaguars, the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Jaguars, and the Texans to close out the season.
If the Broncos finish atop the conference with just the Patriots, then Week 12’s standings are how tiebreakers would play out. In other words, the Broncos would be the No. 1 seed. Time is our judge. As of this writing, the Broncos are No. 16 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score and No. 1 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score.