The Denver Broncos downed the Washington Commanders 27-26 in Week 13 on “Sunday Night Football.” The win moves the former to 10-2, while the latter is 3-9. That said, there are a lot of moving parts in regard to NFL Playoff Scenarios. Let’s open the hood of the playoff car and take a look.
Broncos’ Path to the No. 1 Seed
“Just win, baby.” The Broncos are in control of their destiny. With one more win, Denver claims the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference with four games to go. Because the New England Patriots have a bye in Week 14, the Broncos, with a win against the Las Vegas Raiders, would end up with the better conference record (7-2 to 6-2) — even if the Patriots win in Week 13.
In fact, the Broncos’ odds to win the No. 1 seed sit at 38.2%. It’s going to come down to the final four games of the season. Assuming the Patriots down the New York Giants in Week 13, the former plays the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens, the New York Jets, and the Miami Dolphins to close out the regular season.
The Broncos, meanwhile, play the Green Bay Packers, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Los Angeles Chargers to close out the regular season. Assuming the Broncos beat the Raiders — Broncos have 73.7% odds to beat the Raiders — the final four games of the season include two coinflips. The Broncos have 57.3% odds to beat the Packers in Week 15 and 51.5% odds to beat the Chiefs in Week 17, respectively.
A conservative estimate puts the Broncos at 13-4. A conservative estimate puts the Patriots at 13-4 as well. So, if the Broncos can flip one — or both — of the coinflip games, they’d be rolling. That said, a two-way tie with the Patriots at 13-4 atop the AFC Conference gives the edge to the Broncos. In other words, the Broncos have to win in Week 14, then split the final four games to get to 13-4 and sit atop the AFC Conference with the No. 1 seed.
How the Broncos can claim the AFC’s No. 1 seed is a matter of semantics. At this point, it’s hard to imagine Denver not edging out the Patriots, based on their remaining schedules.