The Denver Broncos are atop the AFC West at 8-2. The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, are one game back at 7-3, while the Kansas City Chiefs are in third place in the division at 5-4. Before a Week 12 bye, though, the Broncos play the Chiefs. A win puts the Broncos at 9-2 and the Chiefs at 5-5. Even if the Chiefs get to 6-5 with the Broncos on bye in Week 12, that’s a three-game lead with six games left.
The Broncos Look to Box out the Chiefs for the AFC West Crown in Week 11
As displayed above, a Broncos win in Week 11 puts the Chiefs’ odds to win the division at just 3%. And the Chiefs’ playoff odds would sit at 46.4%. The Broncos, meanwhile, would be at 71.7% odds to win the division, even with the Chargers just one game behind at 7-3 and owning the tiebreaker over the Broncos. The Broncos’ odds to make the playoffs, though, would sit at 98.6%.
So, Week 11 has a lot on the line. A Chiefs win changes everything.
If the Chiefs win in Week 11, Kansas City’s odds to win the division jump to 20%. And the Chiefs’ odds to make the playoffs jump to 72.1%. The Broncos, meanwhile, would drop down to 42.9% to win the division and 91.3% to make the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at the matchup. The Chiefs sit at No. 4 in PFSN’s Offense Impact Score, while the Broncos sit at No. 16. The Broncos, though, sit at No.1 in PFSN’s Defense Impact Score, while the Chiefs are No. 9.
In a passing league, offense beats defense. So, it’ll be interesting to see for Broncos fans if the Broncos’ defense can stop the Chiefs’ offense. If not, the Broncos’ offense will attempt to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense, although the Chiefs’ defense holds the upper hand.
We’re seven games from a determination on Bo Nix. The second half of the season will be crucial in determining whether he is the long-term answer for the Broncos. There’s no fall off for Nix in Year 2, but there’s no elevation either. The question becomes whether the past two games by Nix are growing pains or him reaching his ceiling. It’s in the past two games that Nix’s season-long completion percentage has fallen to 60.9.