It would have been a pretty big letdown if the Dallas Cowboys had laid down and taken a bad loss to the Eagles last week with everything on the line. Instead, they rallied. Now, on Thanksgiving Day, they’ll face the Kansas City Chiefs with both teams fighting to stay alive in the playoff race. Will Dallas’s newfound defense and explosive passing game be enough to unseat the Chiefs?
Where the Chiefs Stand
The dynasty of this decade, the Kansas City Chiefs, stands in unfamiliar territory at 6-5 and 10th in the AFC. Even after a slow start, most would expect them to fire on all cylinders as they proved to redeem themselves following their blowout loss in the Super Bowl. Instead, they took bad losses to the Bills and the Broncos off their bye.
It took a classic Patrick Mahomes effort and overtime to overcome the Colts down multiple possessions, a loss that would almost certainly end their season. But like the Cowboys, they came back and kept their season alive.
Both catching momentum at the right time, one of these teams is going to come out on top, and their playoff chances with it.
Where the Cowboys Stand
Dallas’s new defense will have its hands full with Patrick Mahomes coming into town, but a win over the other Super Bowl team, the Eagles, showed that they’re capable of competing with the best.
Dak Prescott and this offense have been on fire as of late, ranking third per PFSN’s Offensive Impact metric (87.5). CeeDee Lamb struggled with drops against Philly, but George Pickens picked it up in his stead. Should Lamb return to form, this duo can prove to be an exceptional pairing that’ll keep the Chiefs on their heels.
But that’s the expectation. It’s been the defense that’s pulled a 180 and has been exceptional. Not only has the acquisition of Quinnen Williams been a game-changer, but adding Logan Wilson, as well as returning players like DeMarvion Overshown and Malik Hooker, has made a world of difference.
With a game-changer, legitimate depth on defense, and a healthy offense, the Cowboys are firing on all cylinders with no time to spare.
The Cowboys Win If…
Dak Prescott outduels Patrick Mahomes. A month ago, this would have seemed like a pipe dream, but a new-look defense gives the Cowboys a legitimate chance.
Dallas has stuffed the run games of Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley in consecutive weeks, forcing their offenses to become one-dimensional. That’s a baseline for what they must accomplish this week, because even if they manage to do so, stopping Mahomes is its own chore. That said, keeping the Chiefs from controlling the ball and bleeding the clock means Prescott will get plenty of opportunities of his own.
From there, it’s up to Prescott to get it done against a known commodity in the Chiefs’ defense. It’s not exactly the unit that won a pair of Super Bowls, but they’re still ranked 10th by PFSN, and the Steve Spagnuolo defense can give any quarterback fits. Both Lamb and Pickens must be on their A-game because mistakes against the Chiefs will come back to haunt them.
The Cowboys Lose If…
This team isn’t well prepared. It’s one thing to match the Chiefs with talent, but first-year head coach and offensive play caller Brian Schottenheimer is going to have to outduel both Andy Reid and Spagnuolo. That’s no small task on a short week.
Reid is in the tier of coaches who rarely beat themselves. Whether Schottenheimer will be that one day has yet to be seen, but on a national stage, we’ll certainly hear about it next week.
Prescott will give you a chance, and this defense shouldn’t lose the game outright like they would at the beginning of the season. The game of inches will come down to the game plan and in-game decision-making of Schottenheimer. Can they control the clock, avoid bad turnovers, and get Lamb out of his funk?
Prediction: Cowboys 30-24
The Chiefs will almost certainly keep this close and force the Cowboys to win in the fourth quarter. Much like against the Eagles, if Prescott can get the ball last, they can win this game.
Cowboys vs. Chiefs Playoff Impact
Heading into Week 13, Dallas and Kansas City have very different playoff outlooks based on PFSN’s Playoff Predictor. Before kickoff, Dallas owns a modest 10.7% chance to reach the playoffs, while Kansas City stands at 44.2%. If Dallas pulls off a home win against the favored Chiefs, their playoff probability leaps to 17.9% (a gain of 7.2 percentage points). Meanwhile, a Dallas win drops the Chiefs’ playoff odds sharply to 29.6%, a 14.6% decrease from baseline.
READ MORE: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings
If Kansas City prevails on the road, their playoff chances jump to 54.5%, gaining 10.3 points, while Dallas would see their postseason odds shrink to 5.5%, a 5.2-point drop. These swings illustrate how crucial this matchup is for both teams: A Dallas victory keeps their postseason hopes alive and puts Kansas City in a precarious position, but a Chiefs win would nearly ensure their playoff spot and all but eliminate Dallas from the NFC race.