Calling it “uncharted territory” doesn’t fit the Carolina Panthers’ (7-6) scenario in Week 15. The team has a chance to take control of the NFC South and move closer to a playoff berth. Yet, it’s been a long time since this feeling reached the Panthers’ franchise and fan base.
The Carolina Panthers Control Their Playoff Destiny
Over the last three seasons, the Panthers have often faced a razor-thin margin for error. Atlanta’s upset victory against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football kicked off Week 15 NFL action. That result created a path to the postseason with multiple twists for the Panthers.
With that in mind, the goal is a swift, direct strike. Step one: defeat the New Orleans Saints (3-10) in Week 15. If successful, step two: beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home in Week 16. Doing both clinches the NFC South for Carolina for the first time since 2015, the season they reached the Super Bowl.
The Panthers are coming off a late-season bye week in Week 14. That opportunity gave the team a chance to get healthy before their most critical matchup of the season. Defensive lineman Turk Wharton (hamstring) was a late addition to the injury report on Saturday. He is the only player with an injury designation this week. The interior pass rusher is listed as questionable.
Carolina will get Jaycee Horn (concussion), Christian Rozeboom (hip/hamstring), and Tre’von Moehrig (suspension) back in the lineup for the definitive rematch against the Saints.
The last time the Panthers took to the field, they defeated the Los Angeles Rams in a statement Week 13 win. That result showed that, when playing to their identity and fullest capacity, no opponent is too daunting for Carolina. It’s a sentiment Panthers coach Dave Canales echoed earlier this week. He said, “I understand who we are as a team. Panthers football should look a certain way.”
New Orleans Saints Are a Dangerous Team Not To Be Taken Lightly
The New Orleans Saints have won two of their last four games heading into Week 15, including a Week 10 victory over the Panthers. In Week 14, their road win against the Buccaneers helped the Panthers tie for the top spot in the NFC South with Tampa Bay.
Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, 25, has made a difference for the Saints’ offense. He has started the last five games. In that span, Shough has completed 67.2% of his passes for 1,084 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Star running back Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle), No. 41-ranked RB in PFSN’s RBi metric, is out for the Week 15 rematch. Rookie Devin Neal will get his third start. Neal, the former Kansas Jayhawk, is averaging 3.6 yards per carry this season.
The Saints’ defense has ranked sixth, twelfth, fifth, and ninth per PFSN’s DEFi scores over the last four weeks.
How the Panthers Can Win in Week 15
When Carolina beat the Rams in Week 13, it was not because Los Angeles played poorly or had a disastrous game. The Panthers executed a sustainable and successful offensive approach. They combined for 35 running back rush attempts and 20 passes from Bryce Young.
That’s the ‘Panthers football’ Canales alluded to in his Wednesday press conference. Rico Dowdle (82.6 PFSN RBi) and Chuba Hubbard power the Carolina offense. The offensive line must assert dominance in the trenches versus the Saints’ 24th-ranked rush defense, which allows 130.9 yards per game.
Young (1-4 against New Orleans) has never thrown a touchdown in the Superdome in his career. The Week 10 offensive plan was not inept. However, the execution in both the run and pass game was lackluster, leaving many plays on the field.
Young’s ability to diagnose plays at the line will be tested. The Saints’ defense leads the league in simulated pressure rate (14%) and blitz 30.4% of the time, eleventh-most in the NFL. Carolina must attack the area where New Orleans brings pressure. Young and the Panthers need to improve in this aspect.
Defensively, the Panthers struggle to generate pressure. Moehrig’s return opens up sub-package chances and brings more variety in coverage and pressure looks. Chris Olave is the primary target in the Saints’ passing attack, and Carolina has had two weeks to game plan for him.
How the Panthers Can Lose in Week 15
The New Orleans Saints’ defensive identity is frustrating opponents into playing out of character. That is precisely what they accomplished against Carolina in their first matchup weeks ago.
Pre-snap, the Saints show simulated pressures at the highest rate. After the snap, their looks require the opposing quarterback to react quickly and accurately. That is the challenge for Bryce Young if he and the Panthers’ passing game are to overcome past struggles.
In Week 10, Rico Dowdle was ineffective. Chuba Hubbard was just starting to return to form after recovering from a soft-tissue injury. If Carolina is forced into a one-dimensional attack, it clearly benefits the Brandon Staley-led Saints’ defense.
The Saints’ offense delivered when it mattered in the first meeting. Dave Canales described it to reporters in his press conference. He said, “I think it was two touchdowns on third downs. We’re in position to make plays. They came up with the plays we didn’t in that game. That was the difference.”
Week 15 Panthers vs. Saints Prediction
I dislike labeling games as “trap games.” However, it’s hard to argue against that label. The memory of a one-win Saints team coming into Charlotte to defeat a confident Panthers group after their upset over Green Bay in Lambeau Field lingers.
I don’t expect the Panthers to be caught off guard in this one. Dave Canales has sometimes struggled with in-the-moment adjustments. However, he has created great game plans with offensive coordinator Brad Idzik after losses. I expect the extra week of preparation and study to benefit Carolina.
Ejiro Evero has been locked in, even when missing multiple starters recently. The defense is as healthy as it’s been all season for Week 15. I’m confident in trusting the revamped Panthers’ unit against a middling Saints offense that is missing their Pro Bowl running back.
The Carolina Panthers have so much at stake in this game. Many will expect this young team to buckle under the pressure. I believe the opposite. The better team will play better football this Sunday, and that means the Panthers win and find themselves one game away from clinching the NFC South going into Week 16.
Panthers 27, Saints 13
