The order in which these games will be played has yet to be determined, but the opponents for every team are known, and that allows us to project our NFL strength of schedule rankings well in advance.
Can the Philadelphia Eagles repeat? Could the Dallas Cowboys bounce back? We ran every team’s set of opponents through our advanced metrics to determine who has a tough road ahead of them and who could benefit from lesser competition.
1) Detroit Lions
In addition to playing in maybe the best division in football, the Lions will play both conference champions during the 2025 regular season. Nothing will come easy this year for a team that lost both of their coordinators, but they were atop our power rankings for a large portion of 2024 and did win seven of nine games against winning teams in the process (second best).
2) Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens get a tough break in having to square off against the NFC North, and getting the Chiefs as a result of winning the AFC North last season creates another significant obstacle.
Baltimore led the NFL last season with nine regular season victories over winning teams and will have to again fair well in such spots if they want to position themselves to make a deep run this winter.
3) Philadelphia Eagles
The defending champions are almost always going to rank high in terms of projected difficulty due to how the league structures things, and the Eagles’ draw in 2025 is no exception.
The division should be better this year than last, and the AFC West is going to be a strong grouping for years to come. Fast starts have been a trademark of this team (19-3 through October over the past three seasons), and while they figure to be pushed from the jump, this roster is plenty capable of repeating.
4) Buffalo Bills
The AFC East is in the midst of an overhaul, and they figure to provide more resistance to Buffalo this year than last, and a first-place schedule is always going to project as difficult.
That said, the Bills do get to face the NFC South, and if those games end up frontloaded, we could be looking at the AFC’s top-seed as they are a league-best 14-2 over the past three regular seasons in December/January.
5) Green Bay Packers
Green Bay’s success in recent seasons has been thanks to their ability to win outside of the division (15-7 record over the past two seasons), but that’s not going to be an easy formula to repeat in 2025 with the Eagles, Ravens, Commanders, and Broncos highlighting their non-NFC North schedule in 2025.
We saw some signs of growth from Jordan Love down the stretch of last season, and he’s going to need to build upon that success to position the Packers favorably for a winter run.
6) Kansas City Chiefs
No team was better during the regular season against winning teams than the defending AFC champions (8-2), and they are going to have to perform well against talented teams again this season if they want to host playoff games in bulk.
They will have to go to Buffalo in a game that they could well be an underdog in, and while their toughest games outside of that are at home (Lions, Eagles, and Ravens), this upward-trending division will offer more resistance than in years past.
7) Denver Broncos
At some level, the Broncos project to be a victim of their own success, as their surprising 2024 has landed them a tough draw in 2025.
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That said, they have the type of roster that projects well (above average QB on a rookie deal with an elite defense supporting him) and have room to be even better this year than last – Denver lost six of seven one-score games during Bo Nix’s rookie campaign, a winning percentage that topped just the Giants in such games.
8) Los Angeles Chargers
Until proven otherwise, do we care where the Bolts rank on this list? Since drafting Justin Herbert in 2020, they’ve seen a league-high 52 games be decided by seven or fewer points (24-28 record in those contests).
The division is a talented one, and facing all four NFC East teams this season isn’t a picnic, but the final record is more likely to reflect the development of their offense and their ability to close out games more than who is standing on the other sideline.
9) Washington Commanders
These next two teams led the NFL with eight wins in games decided by fewer than seven points – in a game of inches, that level of close game success is important, but it’s also difficult to repeat year after year.
Can the Commanders build on their ultra-impressive 2024? Like the Broncos, such success will require their second-year QB to not only repeat a stellar first season but build on it. Having the NFC North and AFC West as divisional opponents is going to force this franchise to prove that their breakout season wasn’t a fluke.
10) Minnesota Vikings
See how impactful a single game can be? The Vikings missed a chance to win the NFC North in Week 18 last season, and while the loss hurt, a deep playoff run was always going to be difficult, and now their schedule is more manageable than had they won that game.
Their slate of games is far from easy, but it’s more favorable than what the Lions have on tap, and with them winning nine of 10 one-score games a season ago (only the Chiefs were better at 11-0), every slight dip in projected competition is impactful.
11) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winning a bad division is one of the more damning outcomes from a strength of schedule outcome, as it positions you to face other champions, all of whom project more favorably in our power rankings.
The Bucs earned the right to face the Lions and Eagles this season, games in which they will certainly be underdogs. That said, Tampa Bay did pull out four of seven games against winning teams a season ago, a mark that was bettered by just four teams
12) San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were one of the more disappointing teams from 2024, and while the overall quality of opponent coming their way is far from a pushover, there are reasons for optimism when it comes to a bounce-back season.
When Brock Purdy starts, San Francisco is 11-6 on the road. That strength could single-handedly put them closer to their 2023 results than the disaster that was last season, thanks to non-divisional road games against the Browns, Texans, Colts, Saints, Giants, and Buccaneers in 2025.
13) Cincinnati Bengals
A middling schedule that includes all four AFC East opponents, a run of games that has plenty of variance. Slow starts have been an issue for the Bengals (2-5 in September over the past two seasons, a win percentage that tops only the Jaguars and Panthers), so you’ll want to keep an eye on their early season games when the schedule is released, but if they can front-load their lesser opponents, a playoff berth is very much a reasonable expectation in 2025.
T-14) Miami Dolphins
Location, location, location.
It may be cliche, but you know what? Sometimes cliches are accurate. The ‘Fins are 14-6 over the past two seasons when the kickoff temperature is at least 65 degrees and 5-9 when it’s not.
They are fortunate to draw three warm-weather/indoor road opponents this season (Falcons, Panthers, and Colts), leaving the Miami fanbase to wonder when road games against the Bills, Patriots, Jets, Steelers, and Browns come.
Those games are winnable regardless of their spot on the calendar, but the earlier the better for the Dolphins, especially when you consider the checkered health history of some of their difference makers.
T-14) Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are venturing into the Sam Darnold era and hoping that he can sustain a recent run of road success for this franchise. Over the past two seasons, only Detroit, Kansas City, and Baltimore (all of whom have held down the top spot in our power rankings at one time or another over that stretch) have a better road winning percentage than Seattle.
Even with a revamped team in more than one way, continuing that level of success appears possible as we sit here today – the Panthers, Falcons, Jaguars, Titans, Commanders, and Steelers make up their out-of-division games away from home this season.
16) Los Angeles Rams
Games against the Lions and Ravens will serve as speed bumps, but the Rams are in win-now mode with Matthew Stafford back under center, and the schedule, depending on what you think of the division as a whole, isn’t overly daunting.
The Rams were one of three teams to not lose a game by three or fewer points last season (two such wins) – more nail-biting games this year than last is likely, and their success rate in those games will likely swing their season, for better or worse.
17) Houston Texans
How you evaluate the ceiling for the Texans hinges on what version of C.J. Stroud you think we get in 2025, but the floor is tough to deny – this is the second-best team over the past two seasons when playing divisional games (9-3 record, only the Lions have been better).
Drawing the Ravens and Bills this season makes extreme growth difficult to project, but they are the favorites in the AFC South, and the schedule doesn’t provide a reason to move off of that expectation.
18) Arizona Cardinals
A third-place finish last season means the schedule isn’t going to look overly challenging, but that doesn’t get them out of playing six divisional games, and if they can’t improve on that front, the strength of their other opponents won’t matter.
Over the past two seasons, the Cards are just 3-9 in divisional games, a major dip from a much closer to respectable 9-13 mark against all other opponents. There is upside to chase, but they did pull the short straw in terms of third-place teams in Green Bay and Dallas that they will oppose this season.
19) Pittsburgh Steelers
The divisional games are never a picnic for the fightin’ Mike Tomlin’s, and that’s never going to change. They earned a date with the Chargers as a result of a second-place finish and have to run through the gauntlet known as the NFC North, but their other games are manageable.
If Pittsburgh happens to front-load some of those trouble spots (5-2 in September over the past two seasons, tied for third best in the NFL), another winning season is very much in play.
20) New York Jets
These days, facing the NFC South is a big positive, and the Jets get that luxury in 2025. They are going to have to prove capable of pulling out victories (they led the NFL in losses by three or fewer points last season without winning such a game with four), a task that will likely hinge on the level of play they get under center.
T-21) Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been constantly tied up in tight games over the past three seasons, having played in a league-high 35 over that stretch (15-20 record on those contests), and if that continues, they’ll need Michael Penix Jr. to develop in a hurry.
Their second-place finish earns them difficult matchups with the Commanders and Vikings this season, but this franchise posting their first winning season since 2017 is a reasonable goal.
T-21) Chicago Bears
An NFC North ranking this low in the strength of schedule metric speaks to the reasonably light nature of their non-divisional games (Saints, Giants, and Browns largely responsible for this favorable projection). Of course, this team will only be as successful as the development of Caleb Williams in his second season.
The Bears are just 3-9 in divisional games over the past two seasons – to take the next step forward, they will have to find a way to steal multiple North games, and that’s a tall task.
23) Dallas Cowboys
America’s Team has won 14 of 16 games over the past two seasons when favored, the best mark in the league over that stretch (outright win percentage since 2023 by favorites: 70.2%).
Their third-place finish last season buys them some favorable spots entering 2025, and if Dak Prescott is back to being a top-5 QB, something he was by our QB+ metric in three of his past five healthy seasons, we could be looking at an ultra-competitive NFC East.
24) New Orleans Saints
The Saints were one of three teams that didn’t beat a winning team a year ago, joining the Jaguars and Panthers on a list that you never want to be a part of. Improved health luck would go a long way toward helping this team rebound from a disastrous season.
25) Indianapolis Colts
Even with unsteady play under center last season, the Colts tied for the league lead with five wins in games decided by three or fewer points.
The Colts play in a very iffy division and have plenty of unstable QB situations on tap in 2025, a schedule that could result in a surprising win total if their ability to eek out close games sticks with them for the next eight months.
26) Cleveland Browns
The schedule is lining up to be the least of the concerns for the Browns in 2025, though their fans will want to pay attention as the specifics get leaked out.
Over the past two seasons, Cleveland is 10-7 at home and 4-13 on the road. We already know that they get the benefit of the bonus home game this season, and the games we have highlighted as “easier”, for the most part, come on the road (LV, NYJ, NE, and CHI).
T27) Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars brought in Liam Coen to smooth out some of the rough edges, and if he can do that, the favorable schedule could facilitate results that shock the world.
Last season, Jacksonville lost nine games by six or fewer points, two clear of any other team. If they can leverage their third-place schedule and squeak out a few of those tight games, doubling their 2024 win total isn’t out of the question.
T-27) Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were the only team in 2024 to lose 10 games to winning teams, and while their division remains stout, games against the Giants, Browns, and Patriots all project as somewhat winnable.
The fact that they were the only AFC team without a divisional win last season caps their ceiling, but expecting some growth in the win column under Geno Smith is reasonable.
29) New England Patriots
Sharing a division with an elite team isn’t ideal, and if the Dolphins can live up to their potential, asking the Patriots to post a .500 record in the division is difficult.
Their non-divisional games project as friendly (Saints, Giants, Falcons, and Raiders), but let’s not forget that this team, along with the Panthers, is the worst out-of-division team in the NFL over the past two seasons (4-18 record).
T-30) New York Giants
The Giants have totaled just nine wins over the past two seasons after winning nine times in 2022 and were the only NFC team not to win a divisional game a season ago. Regression to the mean should work in their favor (1-5 in games decided by fewer than seven points in 2024), but that’s only projectable if they solve the quarterback situation.
The strength of the NFC East is going to make challenging .500 a tough ask, but with games against the Bears, Raiders, and Saints on the books, there is hope for improvement.
T-30) Tennessee Titans
The favorable schedule is nice, but this team has lost 10 of 12 divisional games over the past two seasons despite the limitations of those three opponents. The strength of competition is low, and that should allow the Titans to accomplish their lone goal of 2025 – develop their top overall pick.
32) Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have failed to clear five wins in five of the past six seasons, and cold starts have been an issue over the past two seasons (six losses in seven September games). We saw Bryce Young take the needed steps forward down the stretch of 2024, and if that growth can be built upon, there are some winnable games within this division and against the AFC East.
It is important to note that while this team won five games last season, three came in overtime, and another by a single point. Replicating their win total from 2024 wouldn’t look like growth on paper, but depending on how they get there, it very well could be an encouraging result should that be the case.