This is, of course, a nuanced conversation that deserves discussion far beyond a quote graphic on social media.
Mel Kiper Jr. is well-respected in the NFL community, and his words hold weight. So such a definitive claim is naturally going to spark debates left and right.
NFL ‘Ruined By These 2-High Safeties’
I’ll jump into the data in a minute, but the term “ruined” by itself carries a gray area.
Much like the shift in baseball, it’s easy to argue that there’s a fine line between strategy and sabotage. By banning an alignment, are we punishing smart teams in an effort to placate the fans?
.@MelKiperESPN believes two-high safeties "should be outlawed" 👀
"The NFL is being ruined by these two-high safeties." pic.twitter.com/d65PFJysIq
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) September 19, 2024
We all watch the games on Sundays, and we all enjoy something different. I’m of the belief that any single rule cannot “ruin” the game for everyone because we don’t all view the sport through the same lens.
OK, I’ll get off my soapbox now. What Kiper is getting at is the integrity of the game. We’ve built the NFL into a pass-first league, and this defense is making this made-for-TV product a snooze fest that features dump-off passes and conservative game plans for the game’s brightest stars.
Case in point? Patrick Mahomes’ average depth of throw.
- 2018: 9.1 yards
- 2019: 8.8 yards
- 2020: 8.3 yards
- 2021: 7.3 yards
- 2022: 7.3 yards
- 2023: 6.5 yards
- 2024: 5.1 yards
That certainly makes for a less visually appealing product, there’s no debate. But I’d argue that we watch sports for something more than highlight plays — we watch if for competition.
PFN Insights: NFL Cover 2 Data and Trends
There is no denying that what our eyes tell us is in fact accurate when it comes to increase in two-high usage.
We are off to a slow start through two weeks (13.2% of all drop backs), but I’m OK with assuming that’s the product of a small sample.
Percentage of NFL Dropbacks Coming Against Cover 2
- 2019: 14.1%
- 2020: 14.1%
- 2021: 16.0%
- 2022: 16.8%
- 2023: 16.0%
It’s clear that 2021 was something of a tipping point and that defenses have liked the result enough to stick with it. League-wide, the defensive EPA (expected points added) numbers by coverage scheme suggest that the impact is marginal at best.
- Cover 1: -0.04
- Cover 2: -0.07
- Cover 3: 0.01
- Cover 4: 0.05
That data is interesting and a good starting point, but far from the end of the argument. Are some teams running it without the knowledge of how to best do it, thus skewing the numbers in a negative fashion? Are some coaches implementing a system that doesn’t fit their personnel?
There are a million ways to unravel this discussion (believe me, I went down all the rabbit holes), but I kept coming back to the quote.
“Ruined the NFL.”
In order to go viral in saying that something is “ruined,” we have to universally care about the topic.
How Bryce Young has fared in these spots likely doesn’t have your attention – it’s the big names in the big spots on national TV. And that is where I found an interesting trend that I’m willing to buy.
The sport we love hasn’t been ruined. The gap between the haves and have-nots has been.
I looked at the EPA per dropback difference of qualified QBs during the Cover 2 era (minimum of 300 total attempts since 2021) against this coverage scheme and all other personnel groupings.
As expected, there were some ups and downs. That said, the most impacted names were, on average, the most recognizable ones.
There are 26 quarterbacks who qualified under the above parameters who entered this season as a starter and qualified for our PFN QB Grading system (200-plus attempts since the start of 2023).
I matched up our QB grading system with the signal callers most impacted by the Cover 2 trend.
Defining "ruining" is important.
I dive into what the numbers say about the impact of Cover-2 @PFN365 https://t.co/PitS5Iu5By pic.twitter.com/MeSuDR094Q
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) September 19, 2024
In terms of understanding this ranking based graphic, it’s more simple than it appears. On the vertical axis, I’ve turned our grades into ranks – the highest-graded QB earns a “1” as he sits atop the board. On the horizontal axis, I’m ranking the negative impact of Cover 2 – the QB who sees his EPA impact the least earns “1” because he is the best at beating the trendy scheme.
With that understood, you can see that as the quality of signal-caller increases (his number on the Y-axis declines, showing a better ranking), his dip in efficiency against Cover 2 personnel is magnified (a higher ranking number on the X-axis).
That’s an awfully nerdy way of proving my point that these defensive structures aren’t slowing down everyone; they’re narrowing the gap between the quarterbacks.
The wise guys in charge of sportsbooks have been noticing this trend, but the public is just beginning to catch on.
Average NFL Spreads By Season
- 2021: 6.03 points
- 2022: 5.01 points
- 2023: 4.95 points
- 2024: 4.02 points
If domination is what you like to watch, then yes, the Cover 2 phenomenon is ruining the sport.
But is that what you want? Do you want the rules tailored to further separate the great QBs from the good, the good from the average, and the average from the bad?
I’d argue that the spike in Cover 2 rates is a feature, not a bug. The Chiefs continue to excel, but outside of them, this league stands to be as competitive as it’s been in recent memory with nearly half of the postseason turning over on a year-over-year basis.
In the study above, the QBs hurt the most by Cover 2 over this sample are Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Brock Purdy — a five-set that has had plenty of team success despite defenses getting smarter.
By eliminating an equalizing factor, we would get more fantasy football numbers from the elite, but we would get a less competitive league overall, and that’s not what most football fans, casual or otherwise, want.
If a decline in the number of teams that can be competitive on a weekly or annual basis is wrong, then quite frankly, I don’t want to be right.
Kiper has forgotten more football than I’ll ever know, but the numbers suggest that this defensive strategy has been a net gain for the league in terms of competition, something we all should support.