The Green Bay Packers ended a 23-year drought when they selected Matthew Golden with the No. 23 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, making the Texas product the first wide receiver the franchise had taken in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002.
However, Golden failed to live up to the expectations in his rookie season. But there is optimism around him due to the departures of other wideouts, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, in the offseason. However, one analyst doesn’t believe that Golden will be able to make the most of his opportunities.
Why PFN’s Jason Katz Is Not Sold on Matthew Golden
Golden finished his rookie season with just 29 receptions for 361 yards and zero touchdowns on 44 targets in 14 games. For a franchise that invested first-round capital at the wide receiver position for the first time in over two decades, the return was underwhelming by any measure.
With Doubs signing a four-year, $68 million deal with the New England Patriots and Wicks traded to the Philadelphia Eagles for a pair of late-round picks, the path to targets in Green Bay has opened up considerably for Golden. He is expected to be the WR2 behind Christian Watson, and his outlook for the upcoming season has almost been universally positive.
But Pro Football Network’s Jason Katz doesn’t believe that, and he has historical data to back his opinion.
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After PFN’s Ian Cummings listed Tre Harris, Rashid Shaheed, Jordan Addison, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Hunter as wideouts to avoid in fantasy football this year, Katz placed Golden among them.
“I’ve done two historical studies that are incredibly predictive of future success for wide receivers. Neither bodes well for the Packers’ sophomore (Golden),” Katz said on PFN’s “Football Debate Club.”
“First, we have Golden’s rookie yardage total; just 361,” Katz added. “Since 2011, of the 101 Day 1 or Day 2 wide receivers who failed to reach 525 receiving yards as rookies, 85 of them never produced a single season of 12+ fantasy points per game. 74 of them never even got to a single season with 10.”
“Then we have the matter of Golden’s speed,” Katz continued. “It was a major selling point for him ahead of the NFL Draft. Since 2000, 20 wide receivers have run a 4.31 40-time or faster at the combine. Santana Moss is the only true success story. That is a 95% bust rate. Golden ran a 4.29. Between the 40-time and the poor rookie production, I am out on Matthew Golden in fantasy football in 2026.”
History says do NOT draft Matthew Golden in fantasy football this year ⚠️@jasonkatz13 explain why 👇️ pic.twitter.com/jECsJG8hY6
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 19, 2026
With Jayden Reed and Watson both missing significant time due to injuries in 2025, Golden had chances to establish himself and couldn’t capitalize.
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However, historical data doesn’t account for every variable, and Golden could prove to be an outlier. Davante Adams posted just 446 receiving yards as a rookie with Green Bay before evolving into a future Hall of Famer.
Playing alongside a quarterback like Love, who ranked fourth on PFN’s QB Impact Rankings last season, gives Golden a real advantage that the other past measurables don’t capture.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense historically spreads targets around, but it also rewards elite receivers, and Golden will once again have opportunities to prove his worth.
Watson’s injury history adds another layer. The Packers’ new $92 million receiver has missed 20 of a possible 68 career games, including time lost to a torn ACL.
If Watson misses time again, Golden could inherit WR1 reps on a team that many view as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Moreover, until Micah Parsons is back from his injury, the Packers will rely on their explosive offense, and Love could dial up Golden’s number several times in every game.
