To complement PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter, we’re introducing PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter (FPM) in the 2025 season.
FPM is a forward-looking metric designed to analyze the strength of all 32 teams. As a result, FPM gives fans a unique perspective on each team’s updated likelihood for every scenario, from making or missing the playoffs to reaching Super Bowl LX in February. Below, we look at every team’s playoff chances entering Week 2.
| Team | Playoffs % | Division % | Div Round % | Conf Champ % | Super Bowl % | SB Win % | #1 Pick % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 60.0% | 32.4% | 33.5% | 15.7% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 24.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 4.5% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 62.0% | 36.8% | 38.5% | 21.3% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 0.3% |
| Buffalo Bills | 90.5% | 81.4% | 68.0% | 39.7% | 23.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | 11.2% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 11.9% |
| Chicago Bears | 18.1% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 4.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 61.1% | 35.7% | 35.3% | 17.6% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 0.3% |
| Cleveland Browns | 12.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 7.7% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 31.5% | 11.9% | 15.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| Denver Broncos | 59.6% | 26.1% | 34.7% | 17.3% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| Detroit Lions | 46.7% | 17.3% | 27.4% | 14.8% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Green Bay Packers | 79.7% | 55.8% | 55.5% | 32.1% | 18.2% | 9.9% | 0.1% |
| Houston Texans | 33.9% | 20.7% | 16.8% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 53.9% | 37.8% | 27.6% | 11.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 49.7% | 33.7% | 25.0% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 58.8% | 23.6% | 37.3% | 20.8% | 11.3% | 6.2% | 0.3% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 74.2% | 42.9% | 47.4% | 24.9% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 0.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 63.8% | 37.3% | 37.1% | 17.8% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 0.3% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 26.3% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | 15.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 7.5% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 50.2% | 21.7% | 27.3% | 13.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| New England Patriots | 15.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 9.9% |
| New Orleans Saints | 20.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 7.7% |
| New York Giants | 6.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 14.4% |
| New York Jets | 25.0% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 4.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 71.2% | 47.1% | 45.5% | 25.1% | 13.6% | 7.2% | 0.1% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 48.0% | 23.2% | 24.9% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 20.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 4.2% |
| San Francisco 49rs | 49.0% | 23.5% | 23.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 82.7% | 74.1% | 53.6% | 28.1% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 14.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 9.2% |
| Washington Commanders | 64.8% | 39.1% | 38.8% | 20.0% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 0.3% |
What is the Projected 2025 NFL Playoff Field?
The current seven-team field in each conference projects as follows, according to FPM:
AFC Projected Playoff Teams
1) Buffalo Bills: 11.3 wins
2) Los Angeles Chargers: 10.2 wins
3) Baltimore Ravens: 9.5 wins
4) Indianapolis Colts: 9.0 wins
5) Cincinnati Bengals: 9.4 wins
6) Denver Broncos: 9.4 wins
7) Kansas City Chiefs: 9.4 wins
On the AFC side, the Buffalo Bills are the top projected seed after earning a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker with their Week 1 comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens remain the AFC North favorites, but only narrowly so over the Cincinnati Bengals.
For the second consecutive season, the AFC West projects to send three teams to the playoffs. However, FPM has a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs taking the division for the first time since 2015.
The Chargers are favorites in the division after defeating the Chiefs in Brazil in Week 1, with the Broncos very slightly ahead of the three-time defending AFC champs in our projections as well. The Chiefs have the seventh-hardest projected remaining strength of schedule according to PFSN’s projections, while the Broncos rank 11th-hardest and the Chargers rank 20th-hardest.
The AFC South once again projects as the home of the four seed, with the Colts vaulting to the top of the projections after Daniel Jones’ impressive team debut. The Jacksonville Jaguars are close behind (8.8 projected wins), with the Houston Texans falling to 7.9 projected wins and the Tennessee Titans projected as the worst team in the conference (6.7 wins).
NFC Projected Playoff Teams
1) Green Bay Packers: 10.6 wins
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10.4 wins
3) Philadelphia Eagles: 9.9 wins
4) Los Angeles Rams: 9.7 wins
5) Washington Commanders: 9.6 wins
6) Arizona Cardinals: 9.5 wins
7) Minnesota Vikings: 9.0 wins
On the NFC side, the Green Bay Packers lived up to their preseason hype with a resounding Week 1 win over the Detroit Lions. That makes the Packers clear NFC North favorites in our projections, as well as the early favorite to earn the bye. The Lions are the second team out of our playoff field with 8.8 wins, just behind the San Francisco 49ers at 8.9 wins.
.@LIONS @PACKERS THE #GOPACKGO DEFENSE WHIPPED THE LIONS AT THE LOS; ALL GAME LONG. LAST YEARS LIONS SUCCESS IS IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR. #BALDYSBREAKDOWNS PIC.TWITTER.COM/DIW3CLRQEV
— BRIAN BALDINGER (@BALDYNFL) SEPTEMBER 8, 2025
Overall, the early NFC field is fairly chalkish compared to last year. Six of the seven teams in this projection are repeats from 2024, with the Arizona Cardinals representing the only new addition (in for the Lions). We’re bullish on the Cardinals’ offense, and the team’s 19th-ranked strength of schedule should allow Arizona to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2021 season.
In addition to the 14-team playoff field, here are the teams with the highest projected chances to reach the Divisional, Conference Championship, and Super Bowl rounds of the postseason.
Highest Percent Chance to Reach Divisional Round
1) Buffalo Bills: 68.0%
2) Green Bay Packers: 55.5%
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 53.6%
4) Los Angeles Chargers: 47.4%
5) Philadelphia Eagles: 45.5%
6) Washington Commanders: 38.8%
7) Baltimore Ravens: 38.5%
8) Kansas City Chiefs: 37.3%
It’s no surprise to see the projected one seeds with the highest projections to reach the Divisional Round, which would happen automatically. However, despite not being projected as division winners, the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs both rank among the teams with the top projections to reach the Divisional Round.
A projected third Chiefs-Chargers Wild Card matchup would be a tight contest between familiar rivals, giving Kansas City a better chance of advancing than most seven seeds. Meanwhile, Washington projects as our top Wild Card team and would benefit from playing the weakest NFC division winner after advancing and winning a pair of road games in the previous postseason.
Highest Percent Chance to Reach Conference Championship Game
1) Buffalo Bills: 39.7%
2) Green Bay Packers: 32.1%
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 28.1%
4) Philadelphia Eagles: 25.1%
5) Los Angeles Chargers: 24.9%
6) Baltimore Ravens: 21.3%
The top of the NFC is a little more crowded in our projections, with the top three teams in Conference Championship odds separated by roughly seven percentage points. Conversely, the Bills are significant favorites to reach the AFC Championship Game for the second consecutive season, with nearly a 40% chance of doing so. No other team in the conference holds even a 25% projected chance.
Highest Percent Chance to Reach Super Bowl 60
1) Buffalo Bills: 13.0%
2) Green Bay Packers: 9.9%
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.3%
4) Philadelphia Eagles: 7.2%
Is this finally the year for Buffalo? Our early projections have a Bills-Packers Super Bowl, which nearly happened as recently as 2020 (both teams lost in the conference championship round that year). The defending champs also remain near the top of the projections, which would make for two repeat Super Bowl titles in three years after not occurring for 18 seasons.
