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NFL Betting Lines Week 7: Which odds should I target this week?

NFL Betting Lines Week 7: Which odds should I target this week?
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 18: Chase Claypool #11 of the Pittsburgh Steelers stiff arms Mack Wilson #51 of the Cleveland Browns during their NFL game at Heinz Field on October 18, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

Week 7 brings some fascinating matchups that should have the mouths of football fans all over the country watering. Sunday starts with a clash of two unbeaten teams before we see a somewhat loaded afternoon slate and a potential high-octane Sunday Night Football game. Additionally, on deeper inspection, some of the Week 7 NFL betting lines seem to be very favorable. Let’s take a look.

NFL Betting Lines Week 7: Official Plays

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans, O/U 50.5

The battle of the 5-0 teams will take place this Sunday in Nashville. The Steelers have the best defense in football, and it felt like their Week 6 matchup against Cleveland was over after the Minkah Fitzpatrick pick-six gave them a 10-point lead.

Devin Bush being lost for the season with a torn ACL will be a pivotal loss, but Robert Spillane looked solid in his absence this past Sunday, and Vince Williams leads the NFL in tackles for loss.

The offense has a budding star in Chase Claypool, who has five touchdowns over the last two games and Ben Roethlisberger looks solid with 11 touchdowns to just one interception.

Related | Week 7 NFL Spreads: Division leaders versus the challengers

The Titans are unbeaten, but let’s take into consideration how they got here. They barely beat Denver and Jacksonville, they had to come back to beat the Vikings and needed a last-minute miracle to beat Houston, The only team they have beaten handily was the Bills off two weeks of rest and Buffalo was without several key contributors including Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and John Brown.

They’ve also been in a lot of high scoring games. If their plan is to score 30+ points and beat the Steelers in a shootout, they will get stomped, because they aren’t doing that against this defense. All of this isn’t to say that the Titans start isn’t impressive, but they need a new strategy going forward if they want to be true contenders.

Pittsburgh is 4-1 against the spread this season, while Tennessee is just 2-3. The battle of the unbeaten’s will have one of these teams standing at 6-0.

Jarrett’s Official Play: PIT +1.5 (-110)

The Titans run game has been their bread and butter, but the Steelers are going to make Tennessee beat them with the passing game. If Ryan Tannehill is the one who beats them, they’ll tip their cap and move on, but I don’t see that happening.

While the Week 7 NFL betting lines have shifted Tennessee to the favorite, I expect a big day from the Steelers offense against a mediocre Titans defense and Pittsburgh to move on to 6-0.

Detroit Lions (+2) at Atlanta Falcons, O/U 54.5

The Detroit Lions are beginning to show why I predicted them to be in the wildcard race. Kenny Golladay is looking like the receiver he was last season after he racked up 105 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville. D’Andre Swift also had his coming out party, rushing for 116 yards, including a 54-yard run.

Atlanta finally got a win in their first game without Dan Quinn, a 40-23 victory over the Vikings. That said, rumors are starting to spread about the possibility of Julio Jones and/or Matt Ryan being traded before the deadline.

Not only that, but their defense still has holes all over it and it doesn’t seem to matter how much they score this season because their defense is allowing just under 31 points per game. Going against a Lions offense that is beginning to find their groove could put a hindrance on any sort of roll Atlanta was expecting to go on.

The Falcons are 0-3 against the spread this season as home favorites, which is the second-worst in the league behind only Dallas who is 0-4. Detroit is 1-1 as the away underdog.

Jarrett’s Official Play: DET +2 (-105)

The NFL odds favor the Falcons, but Detroit is just the better overall team on both sides of the ball. While they are only the 22nd pass offense in the league, they were without Golladay for most of the first quarter of the season. At full strength, I like them to not only cover, but win outright.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 51.5

The Buccaneers had their best game as a team in Week 6 against the Packers. After going down 10-0 early, they scored 38 unanswered points to win by four touchdowns in a game where their very good defense shined. They picked off Aaron Rodgers twice, including a pick-six, and had five sacks. They are second in sacks per game behind only Pittsburgh, making the job of Tom Brady and the offense much easier.

The Raiders are off to a good start, coming off a bye week following their 40-32 win over the Chiefs that put their record at 3-2. Although they average the sixth-most passing yards per game, they rely a lot on the deep ball and big plays. If the Buccaneers can take away the deep ball, Vegas may struggle to put up any sort of offensive attack.

Tampa Bay is just 3-3 against the spread, while Vegas is 3-2. The Raiders are also 1-1 as the home team, while Tampa Bay is 1-2 covering on the road. Even with all of that taken into consideration, the NFL Betting Lines for Week 7 like the Buccaneerss and so do I.

Jarrett’s Official Play: TB -4 (-110)

Tampa Bay is finding its groove on the defensive side of the ball. Carlton Davis is emerging as one of the better cornerbacks in football and their pass rush is among the best in the NFL. This comes down to Tampa Bay’s defense being miles better than the defense of Vegas, and I expect Tom Brady and the offense to put up its fair share of points while the defense holds Derek Carr and the Vegas offense in check, especially in the deep passing game.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Houston Texans, O/U 57.5

Week 6 against Tampa Bay wasn’t the Packers’ best performance, to put it lightly. Two Aaron Rodgers’ interceptions and the inability to move the ball after the first quarter kept Green Bay from getting anything going. As Rodgers said, though, every team is going to have a stinker. Green Bay is still the third highest-scoring team in the NFL and in the upper half of the league in sack percentage; they will be fine.

Related | NFL Over/Under Best Bets Week 7: Battle of Ohio

Houston is giving up far too many points. The Texans couldn’t stop Derrick Henry from rushing for over 200 yards, and Ryan Tannehill carved them up in the passing game for 364 yards, as well. Houston is the 30th ranked defense in terms of total yards per game, and 26th in points allowed per game. This defense has few really good players, and it has shown week in and week out. Don’t be surprised if J.J. Watt gets moved before the trade deadline in order to gain some draft capital, as well.

Green Bay is 4-1 against the spread this season, which is good for fifth in the NFL. Houston is 1-5 which ranks 30th.

Jarrett’s Official Play: GB -3.5 (-106)

The Packers will be playing with extra motivation following the big loss to Tampa Bay. The Texans defense won’t be able to keep up with the high-scoring offense of the Packers. Green Bay should bounce back with a solid win making this NFL betting line for Week 7 quite appealing.

Los Angeles Rams (-6) vs Chicago Bears, O/U 44.5

How on Earth are the Bears 5-1? I expected Eminem to win a Nobel Prize before I expected this Bears team to be leading the NFC North this far into this season. Despite their record, I can’t buy into the Bears. I don’t buy Nick Foles as a season-long starter and their offense outside of Allen Robinson is mediocre at the very best. They are superb on the defensive side of the ball, but they lack any explosiveness offensively and are 27th in points per game.

The Rams are coming off a loss to the division-rival 49ers, and it wasn’t pretty. Jared Goff completed just 50 percent of his passes, the defense allowed three touchdown passes from Jimmy Garoppolo; it was an ugly game. That said, they still lost by just one possession. They are still a top-10 offense in the league in terms of total yards per game, and they allow the fourth-lowest passing yards per game, as well.

The Bears are 4-2 against the spread, which is one game better than the Rams 3-3 record. However, the NFL odds favor the Rams this week at home. The Bears have covered in all three of their road games, but this road trip to Los Angeles may be their toughest test thus far.

Jarrett’s Official Play: LAR -6 (-108)

To put it simply, the Rams are just better. They can put up points, and the Bears can’t. The Los Angeles defense should have no problems containing the Bears sub-par offensive arsenal.

Official Leans

San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at New England Patriots, O/U 43.5

I said coming into the season that I think the 49ers will take a step back, and they’ve done just that. However, the Patriots’ lack of firepower and talent offensively were put on full display against the Broncos.

Even without Nick Bosa, the 49ers defense is better overall than New England’s, and their offensive skill position players are significantly better than anyone the Patriots have.

Jarrett’s Official Lean: SF +2.5 (-115)

The 49ers have more talent, but I have questions about Jimmy Garoppolo. Plus, New England is coming off a bad loss and I’d be nervous betting against the Patriots in this situation.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 49

Each of the Chargers games thus far has been decided by seven points or less, so I’d be hesitant betting on them to cover such a big line. However, Jacksonville has been very up and down this season in terms of keeping games close. One week, they are going blow for blow with Tennessee, another week they are being blown out by Houston.

Related | NFL Week 7 Prop Bets: Which players will standout this week?

The Chargers also have a dynamic offense led by rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, who is averaging nearly 300 yards per game and has given the Bolts new explosive energy with his ability to push the ball downfield. Will he be able to finally help the Chargers get a convincing win, or will Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars keep it close?

Jarrett’s Official Lean: JAX +7.5 (-114)

The NFL Week 7 betting lines are leaning toward Jacksonville covering, and I am, as well. This comes down to the fact that the Chargers seemingly always play in games that come down to the wire. Their passing defense ranks near the bottom of the league, and Jacksonville has the playmakers on offense to take advantage of that.

Remaining NFL Games

New York Giants (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 45

Buffalo Bills (-12) at New York Jets, O/U 45

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) at New Orleans Saints, O/U 51

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 50.5

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at Washington Football Team, O/U 46

Detroit Lions (+2) at Atlanta Falcons, O/U 54.5

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals, O/U 55.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos, O/U 45.5

 

You can follow along with Jarrett on Twitter @JbaileyNFL for more betting analysis, and follow Pro Football Network @PFN365

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