As we enter Week 7, the NFL prop bet market is starting to smooth off a little as sportsbooks are getting more of a feel for the role that each player will have on their team in the 2020 season. However, with injuries and varying defensive matchups coming into play, there is always value to be found. Each week, our NFL betting team will be providing you with our favorite prop bets to help win you some cash. This article will break down various angles through all of Sunday and Monday’s games, as we continuously update our selections as more lines become available.
Week 7 returns to the traditional start of a Thursday Night Game, as the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants clash in a battle that could put either team into a position to challenge in the NFC East. The end of the week also has a more traditional finish as there Chicago Bears take on the Los Angeles Rams in a battle that could have implications for the NFC playoffs down the line. Let’s dive into some of our favorite prop bets for Week 7!
Week 7 Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams | Monday, October 25th, 8:15 PM
Ben Rolfe: David Montgomery over 3.5 receptions
Montgomery and I have a love-hate relationship right now. In Week 5 he was a gold mine for me and then Week 6 he missed his rushing over by two freaking yards. However, one area Montgomery has been money recently is in the passing game. The last three weeks have seen Montgomery targeted 19 times, returning 14 receptions. With +101 odds this week, it is hard to pass up the Montgomery over on receptions.
Jimmy Graham anytime touchdown
This one is quite simple to me. Graham has five touchdowns and leads the team with 11 red-zone targets. He has had two or more red-zone targets in four of the Bears five games this season.
Other potential prop bets to consider on Monday Night Football
Sticking with the Montgomery theme, his rushing yardage prop at 58.5 is tempting to play the under. The Rams defensive line looked vulnerable last week against the 49ers and Raheem Mostert, but even behind a good offensive line, it took Mostert more than 15 carries to go over 60 yards. A good example of a similar matchup for a back would be Devonta Freeman, who had just 33 rushing yards in Week 4 in a tight matchup between the Rams and Giants. The Bears’ offensive line does not do much to help Montgomery and this game could be one the Bears are chasing meaning they get away from using Montgomery in the run game.
Consideration should be given to both quarterbacks to throw an interception if the odds get close enough to even warrant it. These two defenses are both talented and both QBs can be prone to throwing interceptions every so often. While we are on the quarterbacks, it is hard to trust either completing over 22.5 passes which is the current line for both.
An intriguing touchdown bet is Cole Kmet at +950 after he caught his first last week. He is a talented pass-catcher who has a body type made for being a red-zone target. He could make a nice hedge from Jimmy Graham. On the Rams side, Josh Reynolds is the best priced anytime touchdown play at +475, but his solitary red-zone target this season makes him an unreliable play.
Week 7 Sunday Prop Bets
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM
BR: Josh Allen over 28.5 rushing yards
It has been an up-and-down season for Allen in terms of his rushing, but one team he loves to carry the ball against is the New York Jets. In Week 1 this season, Allen carried the ball 14 times for 57 yards, the third time in four games against the Jets that he has gone over 30 yards rushing. The one time he did not was the Week 17 matchup last year when he threw just five passing attempts before resting the remainder of the game.
Frank Gore over 8.5 receiving yards
Before last week, Gore had not gone over six receiving yards in a single game this year. That all changed in Week 6, where against the Dolphins, Gore was targeted a season-high four times, catching all four for 24 receiving yards. As the lead back in New York, look for Gore to see another three or four targets in a game the Jets should once again be chasing.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans | Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM
BR: Derrick Henry over 9.5 receiving yards
This is going to be one of the toughest tests for the Titans all season. The Steelers run defense has been superb, limiting opponents to a second-best 3.3 yards per attempt. That could limit the impact of Henry in this one, meaning the Titans may need to get creative to get a major impact from their star back. Look for Henry to see some targets on designed plays out of the backfield to try and get the big playmaker in space.
Dallas Cowboys at Washngton Football Team | Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM
George Templeton: Cowboys first half moneyline
Dallas was utterly incompetent on Monday night against Arizona. Meanwhile, Washington was nearly handed the Giants game thanks to a terrible Daniel Jones interception and the Giants playing prevent late in the fourth quarter. Washington was toothless for most of the game. They also allowed the Giants to run for 132 yards. Ezekiel Elliott will have a big day as well as the rest of the Cowboys offense.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 PM
BR: D’Andre Swift over 21.5 receiving yards
Swift broke out in a big way on the ground last week in what was arguably the most dominant performance we have seen from the Lions in quite a while. This week should be very different against the Atlanta Falcons, whose offense should be able to go stride for stride with the Lions. Look for Swift to see four or five targets in this game, and hopefully, he will do more with them than he did last week!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, October 24th, 4:25 PM
BR: Melvin Gordon over 2.5 receptions
Gordon’s usage in the passing game has been spotty for the Broncos. However, in three of the four games he has played, the Broncos have been within one score at the end of the game. The one game they were not close was Week 3 against the Buccaneers, where he was targeted six times and returned four receptions.
This game is expected to be a higher scoring one, at least from the Chiefs, and the Broncos will need to keep up. Gordon had a more significant passing game role with the Chargers, but against the Chiefs, he took that to the next level. In his last five games against the Chiefs, he logged 35 targets, 24 receptions, and 290 yards. There is a good chance we see the Broncos needing to use their lead back in a similar way this week.
Drew Lock over 19.5 completions
There is no doubt that Lock struggled last week, but his first game back was always going to be tough against the Patriots defense. This week he should be in a shootout, and he faces a slightly weaker defense. Look for Lock to throw this ball upwards of 30 times, and if he does, I expect 20 or more completions, making this line, at odds of +110, too good to pass up.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, October 24th, 4:25 PM
BR: James Robinson under 51.5 rushing yards
This is as much about the odds of +124 on the under not making a lot of sense to me. Sure, Robinson has been good this year, but he has rushed for under 50 yards in three of the last four games. The Chargers are a middle of the pack team in terms of yards per attempt, and despite being 1-4, they rank in the top 10 in rush attempts and rushing yards allowed. I expect the Chargers to be able to score plenty of points, meaning the Jaguars will be chasing the game, and Robinson’s role will be more about the passing game.
Week 7 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, October 25th, 8:20 PM
GT: Kyler Murray over 66 rushing yards & Kyler Murray over 96 rushing yards
In just his second game back from a long injury absence, Cam Newton ran for 47 yards on 11 carries against the Seahawks. Murray is just as dangerous with his legs and faster than Newton. The Arizona QB averages 7 yards a carry, has more rushing yards than Jonathan Taylor and James Connor and only seven less than Josh Jacobs and 10 less than Kareem Hunt. Murray’s legs will do damage against the struggling Seattle defense and keep Arizona in the game.
Week 7 Thursday Night Football
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles | Thursday, October 22nd, 8:20 PM
BR: Daniel Jones over 29.5 rushing yards
One of the most reliable parts of the Giants offense this season has been Daniel Jones rushing the ball. Over the last four weeks, he has gone over 40 rushing yards three times. The key to his prolific rushing offense has been when facing teams with a strong pass rush, which is something the Eagles have. Look for Jones to be attempting to take advantage of the Eagles strong pass rush by breaking off run plays to try and keep the Giants in a game they have a realistic shot of winning.
Carson Wentz over 0.5 interceptions
A player with nine interceptions through six games should not have a +108 line on the over, making this a fascinatingly priced prop bet in this Week 7 clash. Wentz has only managed to go one game without throwing an interception, last time out in Week 6. This is perhaps priced so nicely because the Giants have just four interceptions and 15 sacks no the season. Their offense has been competent without being good, but with the way Wentz has been playing under pressure, I will take a gamble on the chance he has to throw one up here.
New York Giants +10.5 & under 51 total points
The Giants maybe 1-5, but outside of a Week 3 blowout against an angry San Francisco 49ers team, they have been semi-competitive in all of their games this season. That 49ers game is the only one which they have lost by more than 10 points this season, while the Eagles only win came by just five points. With the Eagles being so injured, I struggle to see them blowing out the Giants in this one.
Equally, neither of these teams have lit up the scoring charts this season, ranking 22nd and 31st in points scored. Look for this to be a challenging game with neither offense finding such attractions. I cannot see either team going into the 20s with a likely outcome for this one being in the 20-17 or 24-20 region.
GT: Evan Engram anytime TD
Philadelphia’s secondary is struggling, and tight ends have scored the fifth-most points against the Eagles this season. Engram has the talent to produce a lot more than he has so far, and I think he breaks his touchdown drought this week as the Giants gather momentum with back-to-back wins.
Other prop bets to consider in the Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup
The potential return of Sterling Shepard shakes this game up a lot from a Giants perspective offensively. Shepard clearly has the trust of Jones and if he is on the field, look for Jones to go his way often. There is no line on receptions for Shepard at the time of writing, but if the line comes out at 3.5 with solid odds on the over, I will probably look to jump on it.
In a similar vein, look at the potential of Shepard finding the end zone in this matchup. Shepard caught all three of his touchdowns last season from Daniel Jones, including one in Jones’ first start. Jones has not had much success linking up with the other receivers for the Giants, and with Darius Slayton struggling with injury, look for him to lean on Shepard to get them in the end zone if he is activated.
From an Eagles perspective, the lines surrounding Boston Scott are interesting with Miles Sanders out. However, the Giants rank in the top 10 in yards per attempt on the ground, and the Eagles did no go to Scott reliably in Week 1 when Sanders was out. Look for this to be a strange game, where the Eagles utilize lots of short passing and screens. Scott’s over on receptions would be worth a look, but if the Eagles are leading, they may just keep using their backs to churn clock up the middle.