With only two more games left to be played tonight, Week 4 of the NFL season is nearly complete. The PFN betting team was able to finish up 6.69 units for an ROI of 6.31%. That brings our season total to an impressive +40 units for a 9.09% ROI. While we bask in the success we have had so far, our attention has already turned to Week 5. Here are our early Week 5 NFL picks.
*Make sure to check back later this week as we add more NFL Week 5 picks.*
Week 5 NFL Picks: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) & Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New York Jets
The Dallas Cowboys continue to find impressive ways to disappoint their fan base. They are now coming off back-to-back losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns. One thing has become apparent with America’s Team, their defense is absolutely awful. The Browns were able to put up a shocking 49 points, and even though the final score seemed close, this game was out of arms reach quite early.
The offense has been lights out, with QB Dak Prescott throwing for 502 yards and four touchdowns in the loss. Dallas has the top-ranked offense in football, with the 30th ranked defense. Luckily, after what could be viewed as a tough opening schedule, they return home to take on the winless Giants.
New York fell 17-9 to the Los Angeles Rams after Daniel Jones threw a game-sealing interception in the final minute of a potential game-tying drive.
This game comes down to talent. Even with Golden Tate and Evan Engram, the Giants offense simply does not compare to Dallas.
Now, as much as I would love to confidently take Dallas minus the big number, their defense is scaring me away. They are 0-4 against the spread on the season and have not shown me enough to trust them covering more than a touchdown against this frisky Giants team.
They will be the first part of my 6.5 point teaser to get them to simply a field goal. The outcomes for this game are numerous; they can win by double digits, squeak out a small win, or even lose straight up. Who knows with Mike McCarthy and the boys in silver and blue. Taking them to a field goal will help mitigate the risk.
This spread actually opened at -11 and has been bet down to -9.5. You might be able to get a better number if you wait. Oh, and take the over.
From one disappointing team to another, the Arizona Cardinals head to New York after two straight losses. They are nearly a touchdown underdog on the road, but for good reason. They will be facing a New York Jets team that is being called the worst in the league and could be missing their starting QB in Sam Darnold.
Although Darnold looked good last week, mostly because he started to use his legs and got some of his weapons back, they still couldn’t pull off the win against an injured Denver Broncos squad.
This is similar to the Cowboys, the talent difference here is substantial. Kyler Murray is a dual-threat weapon with his arm and legs, and the team has a legit WR1 in DeAndre Hopkins. The Jets have an injured Darnold, Frank Gore in the backfield, and Jamison Crowder as their top passing option.
I won’t overthink this one, I am taking the Cardinals ML as the second part of my teaser.
Official Week 5 NFL Picks: Cardinals ML/Cowboys -3 (-120) 2 units
New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys OV54 (-110) 1 unit
Thursday Night Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Chicago Bears
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be heading to Chicago to take on Nick Foles and the Bears terrible run game. Tom Brady is starting to finally hit his stride with this offense, throwing for five touchdowns last week, but will be coming into this game with a beat-up roster.
The team lost OJ Howard last week, while Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Scotty Miller are all questionable for this contest.
Luckily, it is not just the offense that is performing well this season. The Buccaneers defense is fourth in the league, allowing just over 310 total yards per game. Realistically, this is where I see the game being played. Tampa Bay’s defense will be the difference, forcing Nick Foles into making mistakes.
Plus, the Bears are impossible to trust especially on Thursday nights. The Bears are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday night games.
Official Week 5 NFL Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-110) 1 unit
The Cardinals hype train has really slowed following their 2-0 start and two subsequent losses in Weeks 3 and 4. I still know that this team has fantastic playmakers on both sides of the ball, a solid coaching staff, and a very special quarterback in Murray.
I expect them to right the ship very soon. But this NFL Week 5 pick is less about the Cardinals and more about the hapless Jets, who just last week allowed the Denver Broncos, led by UDFA second-year QB Brett Rypien, score 37 points on them.
As little faith as I have in this Jets defense, I may have less faith in this offense without Sam Darnold at the helm, which appears to be the most likely case for Sunday. He has had to use every bit of his playmaking ability to evade pass rushers and make things happen on this offense that lacks skill at every position.
Without him, I do not see how Joe Flacco can keep up with this Cardinals’ high-powered offense. Cardinals are the play.
Official Week 5 NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110) 2 units
Other Week 5 NFL Picks from our expert handicappers
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts | Colts -1.5 (-110) 1.1 units
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets | Cardinals -6.5 (-110) 2.1 units
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers | Chargers +7.5 (-105) 2.1 units
Underdog round-robin, each bet .5 unit each, 1 treble, 3 doubles: Jacksonville (+230), Cleveland (+105), Carolina (+105) | Treble: +1283; Doubles +576, +576, +320. 2 units total
Houston just fired their coach, and most expect the bounce from that. But getting rid of Bill O’Brien doesn’t cure their struggles with their offensive line and their secondary. D.J. Chark will have a field day.
Indianapolis’ defense is getting a lot of praise, but since Gardner Minshew dissected them in week 1, the Colts have faced Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, and Sam Darnold. Baker Mayfield and the arsenal at his disposal will be a much bigger challenge. And even without Nick Chubb, the Browns will continue to prosper on the ground with Kareem Hunt.
Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers have two consecutive wins without Christian McCaffrey and somehow are an underdog at winless Atlanta. The Falcons have collapsed, and the clock is ticking on Dan Quinn. Expect a big game from Robby Anderson to pile on the misery for Atlanta.