After a third successful week on the NFL prop bet market in Week 4 (+8.35), our team enters Week 5 up 15 units with a 20% return on investment. Each week, our NFL betting team will be providing you with our favorite prop bets of the week to help win you some cash. This article will take you from Thursday Night Football through to Monday Night Football, as we continuously update our selections as more lines become available.
Week 5 starts Thursday night with a matchup between two 3-1 teams in the form of the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The week ends with the impressive rookie Justin Herbert looking to build off of a strong Week 4 performance as the Los Angeles Chargers (1-3) take on the Drew Brees-led Saints, who enter Week 5 at just 2-2. Let’s dive into some of our favorite prop bets for Week 5!
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans | Tuesday, October 13th, 7:00 pm
1u — Josh Allen anytime touchdown @ +120
We round out our Week 5 prop bets on Tuesday Night Football with a player that has been a favorite of ours this season, Josh Allen. Allen has scored three touchdowns in four games this season and 20 in his 32 games in the NFL. In 2020, Allen has seen 33.3% of the Bills carries within the 10-yard line and averages a carry per game inside the five. On those four carries, Allen has three touchdowns and has accounted for over 35% of the teams carries close to the goal line.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints | Monday, October 12th, 8:15 pm
1u — Justin Herbert over 260.5 passing yards @ -110
This Monday Night Football clash has the potential to be extremely entertaining. In Week 4 both of these teams were involved in games that saw over 60 points scored. I expect to see a somewhat similar result in Week 5. The Saints should be able to have success moving the ball on the ground against the Chargers 20th ranked run defense (yards per attempt), but the Chargers may not have the same success against the Saints fifth-ranked run defense.
With no Austin Ekeler, the Chargers run game is a mess, putting the pressure on Justin Herbert to perform. Combine the potential struggles of the run game with the fact that Herbert has thrown for 290 yards or more in all three of his starts this season, and the over on his line of 260.5 seems to be a solid prop bet for this Week 5 Monday night game.
1u — Latavius Murray over 38.5 rushing yards @ -110
With Michael Thomas missing, the Saints have utilized Murray heavily this year, with the big back seeing double-digit carries in three of the four games this season. Murray has managed over 40 yards in two straight games and should be able to find success against a Chargers defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry so far this season.
1u — Justin Herbert more passing yards than Drew Brees @ +101
Given the success I expect the Saints run game to have, this seems like a solid bet. Bress has had to open his shoulders for the last three weeks because of the game circumstance. However, even last week with his team trailing 14-0 early he only threw for 246 yards because of the success of his run game. Herbert will likely not have that luxury of being able to rely on his running game against the strong run defense of the Saints. Look for Herbert to be around the 300-yard mark while Brees sits closer to the 225-250 range.
1u — Teaser: Chargers +13.5 & Over 44 total points @ -103
The instinct is that the Saints should have too much for the Chargers, especially with a somewhat beat up Chargers defense. However, the Saints have been the architects of shooting themselves in the foot this season and the Chargers are a competitive team that has shown no quit this season. Look for Herbert and the Chargers to stay within 14 points and for both teams to go over the 20 point mark in this one.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team | Sunday, October 11th, 1:00 pm
1u — Darrell Henderson more rushing yards than Antonio Gibson @ +112
This is a matchup of two mediocre run defenses as the Rams 18th ranked run defense (yards per game) take on Washington’s 23rd ranked run defense. These odds do make sense to me given that Henderson has gone over 75 yards twice this season while Gibson has yet to mage it once.
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In the last three weeks, the Washington defense has allowed opposing offenses to average over 150 rushing yards per game, compared to 119.3 by the Rams. A big part of that has been due to Washington trailing in games while the Rams have been either leading or in close games. I expect the Rams to be leading this game in the second half, meaning Henderson should rack up plenty of late yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans | Sunday, October 11th, 1:00 pm
1u — D.J. Chark over 4.5 receptions @ +102
What a start Chark is off too so far this season! Through three games (he missed Week 3), he has 15 receptions on 16 targets for a 93.8% catch rate. He is clearly the most reliable pair of hands that the Jaguars have, and the Texans have no one to take him out of the game. Look for Minshew t look his way six or seven times in this one, making plus odds on over 4.5 receptions a steal.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, October 11th, 1:00 pm
0.5u — Curtis Samuel, 120+ yards receiving & one TD @ +6200
Samuel has never had a game like this in his career, so why bet it this week? Put simply, the Falcons’ defense is that bad. Seeing as how the Falcons will score plenty of themselves this could easily be a shootout with a lot of air yards in it. Samuel could be one of the wide receivers that will feast.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, October 11th, 4:25 pm
1u — Daniel Jones over 26.5 rushing yards @ -110
Jones has now become a crucial part of the Giants run game. No longer is he just getting yards on scrambles, the Giants are actually scheming plays especially for him. The added advantage is that Jones is not devastating enough with his legs for teams to scheme him out defensively, meaning he gets a least a couple of open looks with his legs per game. In the last two games, he has averaged 47 yards with his legs, and he will need to be effective with his legs again in the Giants are to have a chance in this one.
1u — Ezekiel Elliott over 29.5 receiving yards @ -110
This line seems low given that Elliott has topped it three times already this season and is averaging 7.5 targets per game. At 1-3 this feels like a statement game for the Cowboys and with the Giants being a solid team against the run (fourth in yards per attempt), look for the Cowboys to use Elliott in the passing game to get him in space.
1u — CeeDee Lamb, two-plus TDs @ +700
Trying to hit this bet two weeks in a row and the rationale here is that Lamb is solidly the number two or even 1A wide receiver for Dak Prescott. Oh, and the Cowboys face an absolutely rancid Giants secondary. It should be a big day for Prescott and some of those TDs will go to Lamb.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears | Thursday, October 8th, 8:20 pm
1u — David Montgomery under 49.5 rushing yards @ -110
We kick off the Week 5 prop bets on Thursday Night Football with a double on David Montgomery. It has now been two rough weeks in a row for Montgomery, who has totaled just 72 yards on 24 carries in those two weeks. This week they face a Buccaneers defense allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt and total yards to running backs. It should be tough sledding for Montgomery, who will likely also lose out on carries as his team chases the game somewhat in the second half.
1u — David Montgomery over 21.5 receiving yards @ -110
However, the Buccaneers’ aggressiveness up the middle plays into Montgomery’s hands when it comes to the receiving game. The Bears will need to get their running game involved somehow, and quick passes to the outside should be just the way. Last week was an excellent example as they targeted Montgomery six times, who turned that into three receptions for 30 yards, his second game over 25 receiving yards this season.
The Buccaneers have also been susceptible to backs catching balls out of the backfield. Week 1 saw Alvin Kamara total 51 yards receiving. In Week 2, it was Mike Davis and Christian McCaffrey combining for over 100 yards receiving. Week 3 saw Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman combine for 43 receiving yards before the Chargers totaled 40 yards between their three main backs.
Montgomery is the primary backfield weapon for the Bears and is averaging nearly four targets per game. Look for the Bears to use Montgomery to try and take advantage of the aggressiveness of this Buccaneers’ defensive line on screen and short passes.
1u — Ronald Jones Under 23.5 Receiving Yards @ +110
With LeSean McCoy getting hurt in the middle of last week’s contest, Ronald Jones was the benefactor in the passing game. He received nine targets but converted them into just 17 receiving yards. Rookie Ke’shawn Vaughn looked much more impressive in a limited showing, turning three targets into 22 yards and a touchdown.
I expect Vaughn to take on the bulk of the receiving work for the Tampa Bay Backfield. Considering the Chicago Bears have ranked 5th in rushing success rate on defense (via Sharp Football Stats), the Buccaneers should find themselves in more of a pass-heavy mindset. I like the cheap price we are getting with Jones and his under receiving yards prop. Leonard Fournette being active also helps in our quest to win this under bet.