The PFN Betting team was on fire with their NFL best bets last week, going a combined 14-2 in Week 3. For the season, we’re now 32-19. Pretty, pretty, pretty good!
Will we stay hot this week with our NFL best bets? Our favorite plays for this week include picks against the spread, overs and unders, player props, and more. Let’s dive right into it.
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NFL Best Bets Week 4
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to place your bets!
Best Bets record to date: 32-19 (14-2 last week)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
- Spread
Jaguars -3 - Moneyline
Falcons +145, Jaguars -175 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
9:30 a.m. EST - Location
Wembley Stadium - How To Watch
ESPN+
Soppe: The game total tells us that the sportsbooks are projecting the Jacksonville Jaguars to score 23-plus points, and who am I to argue with the wise guys?
Well, over the past 11 months, the Jags have reached 23 points seven times:
- ATS record: 7-0
- Average coverage margin: 10.6 points
Those are some strong trends leading into a matchup that projects well for the Jags.
The Atlanta Falcons went from a conservative defense last season (sub-17% blitz rate) to a much more aggressive unit this season (over 26%), something that shouldn’t be a problem given that Trevor Lawrence is getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry (bottom 10 in aDOT, a 5.5% drop from last season despite the addition of Calvin Ridley).
My Falcons vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay article dives deeper into the prop angles around this matchup.
Best Bet: Jaguars -3 (-110 at FanDuel)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
- Spread
Bills -2.5 - Moneyline
Dolphins +120, Bills -142 - Total
53.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Highmark Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: It took a lot of willpower and previous memories to stop me from taking the Miami Dolphins with the field goal. Instead, I’m playing the over at 53.5. The Dolphins offense doesn’t need any introductions or explanation after last week’s 70-point affair over the Denver Broncos, and yes, the Buffalo Bills defense is much better.
The play here is on the fact the last two times these teams played, in December and January, they combined for 61 and 65 points, respectively. And the January playoff game featured third-string QB Skylar Thompson. Even in the earlier game in 2022, which only had 40 total points, the Bills turned the ball over at the goal line and on downs at the 2-yard line.
Simply put, these two teams don’t stop each other often. Miami’s defense, whose mistakes were overshadowed by the explosive offense last week, ranks in the bottom half of most categories and has only played one good offense. I expect points in this one and lots of them.
Best Bet: Over 53.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Prediction
- Spread
Steelers -3 - Moneyline
Steelers -162, Texans +136 - Total
41.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
NRG Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: At first, I liked the Houston Texans in this spot, considering they will be missing both of their starting offensive tackles. Yet, against this Pittsburgh Steelers pass rush, led by T.J. Watt, I’m rethinking my decision.
Now, I like the under instead. The Steelers’ offense has looked horrific to start the season, with only two of their six touchdowns not being a defensive score or coming off a pass play of at least 60 yards.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 4
C.J. Stroud has been very impressive as a rookie so far and is coming off the best game of his short NFL career, a 37-17 win over the Jaguars. After being sacked 11 times in the first two games, the Jaguars, who rank 31st in pass rush win rate, didn’t get to Stroud once last week. But today, he will be facing Watt who is on a tear to start the season, with six sacks in three games.
As long as Matt Canada is running the Steelers offense and their defense has an advantageous matchup, I’ll take the under whenever it’s above a key number.
Best Bet: Under 42 (-110 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
- Spread
Rams -1 - Moneyline
Rams -112, Colts -108 - Total
45.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: The Colts are sitting at 2-1, but I don’t think they’re as good as their record shows they are. They got bailed out by an uncalled DPI on a fourth-down stop in their win last week, and the Ravens had two fumbles, one of which was deep in their own territory.
Head coach Shane Steichen is doing a tremendous job of getting the most out of his limited personnel. But it’s only so sustainable. Their passing offense is extremely conservative, as Anthony Richardson has the lowest aDOT in the NFL, and Gardner Minshew has the sixth lowest.
The Colts’ pass rush has been better than expected to start the season, but they aren’t one that should give Matthew Stafford as much trouble as the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers the last two weeks. Look for him to have more time to throw today and Puka Nacua having another big game.
Best Bet: Rams +1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -4.5 - Moneyline
Vikings -218, Panthers +180 - Total
46.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Bank of America Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: Targeting perceived uncertainty can be an advantageous move in the player prop market, and I think we have a chance to capitalize in this game.
The Carolina Panthers are missing a league-high 13 tackles per game, and that opens them up to struggle in a big way against one of the league’s best offenses through three weeks.
The uncertainty I mentioned for this game comes by way of Cam Akers. I mentioned it in the Week 4 Cheat Sheet — the Minnesota Vikings spent hardly anything to bring in Akers, a running back that projects as depth more than a threat to Alexander Mattison (84.8% of Viking RB carries this season).
Through three weeks, Mattison is averaging 13 carries per game, not a terrible number considering that Minnesota has yet to win a game. With the Vikings projected for a positive game script this week, I’m viewing that as more of a floor. Even if that floor is realized in this game, four yards per carry gets us home!
Best Bet: Alexander Mattison over 50.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
- Spread
Saints -3.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +138, Saints -164 - Total
40 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Caesars Superdome - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Soppe: Betting an “over” in a game doesn’t require an offensive masterpiece. In fact, a game that projects to be a mistake-prone mess can actually be a good target for over-bettors, as short fields allow even poor offenses to put points on the board.
Derek Carr averaged 8-9 passes per quarter this season and thus roughly 35 per game. In games where Jameis Winston throws at least 35 passes, there has been an average of 49.4 points scored (72.3% of those contests seeing at least 42 points scored).
Both of these defenses are aggressive, and with a pair of aggressive quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield is a top-10 QB in aDOT), I see a chaotic game that can produce points in bunches.
Best Bet: Over 39.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -9.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +340, Eagles -440 - Total
43 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Lincoln Financial Field - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: The biggest weakness for this Philadelphia Eagles team a year ago was their run defense, but that has been the complete opposite so far this season. Through three weeks, they’re the fifth-best team in success rate in stopping the run, and they haven’t allowed any running back to go for more than 40 yards rushing so far.
When they lost to the Washington Commanders last season, Brian Robinson had 86 rushing yards on 26 carries. Robinson kept having his way in short-yardage situations, as the Commanders’ offense kept bleeding the clock, keeping the Eagles’ offense off the field.
The Eagles didn’t have Jordan Davis for that game, however, who in his second season, is a big reason why they’re so improved in stopping the run. The game script is in our favor here as well, as the Eagles are heavy home favorites.
Best Bet: Brian Robinson under 53.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Finding plus-money props is difficult, but there’s one on the board that has my interest piqued. To tail this pick, you need to trust an overall process more than trusting the player/defense involved.
- Conservative offense
- Cautious QB
- A defense that encourages low-risk
The Commanders led the league in time of possession last season (highlighted by a game in which they held the ball for over 40 minutes, ending Philadelphia’s undefeated start) and are again among the best at holding onto the ball this season.
Sam Howell owns the fourth-lowest aDOT through three weeks, something we should see extended into this game against an Eagles defense that ranks third in pressure rate. Philadelphia generates heat and is more willing to give up the short pass than be beat deep downfield.
That probably helps them win this game, and I’m hoping it helps me cash in a plus-money winner here, with a line that I believe is an overreaction to last week’s disaster.
Best Bet: Sam Howell under 0.5 interceptions (+145 at DraftKings)
Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Broncos -3.5 - Moneyline
Broncos -166, Bears +140 - Total
46.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Soldier Field - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: Death. Taxes. Running back rushing yards over against the Chicago Bears. In Week 2, Rachaad White ran for 73 yards on 17 carries. Last week, Isiah Pacheco ran for 62 yards on 15 carries, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 55 yards on 15 carries.
Javonte Williams has struggled to really get going, mostly because the Broncos can’t win any games. But he looks healthy and is running with power. Denver is favored in this one. I’m feeling a Williams breakout game.
Best Bet: Javonte Williams Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -2 - Moneyline
Ravens -125, Browns +105 - Total
38.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Cleveland Browns Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: This might surprise some people, but the top defense in the league right now resides in Cleveland.
The Cleveland Browns’ defense is No. 1 in total yards allowed, passing yards, and points allowed per game, and second in rushing yards per game. They’ve allowed just one defensive touchdown all year, and it was a 71-yard touchdown to George Pickens on what was a blown coverage play. That’s it.
We’re still waiting for the Ravens offense with Jackson to go back to his MVP days, but that may not happen. In the last four matchups between these squads, the highest score has been 46 points, including a 13-3 barnburner last year.
I’m not worried about the low total, as I took under 36.5 in Patriots/Jets last week, and it was never a sweat.
Best Bet: Under 41 (-110 at DraftKings earlier this week)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -2.5 - Moneyline
Bengals +-155, Titans +130 - Total
41.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Nissan Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: Although they looked better last week, Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati Bengals passing offense still doesn’t seem right, to say the least. They get a more favorable matchup, however, against a Tennessee Titans pass defense that is 30th in dropback success rate and just allowed Deshaun Watson to have his best game as Cleveland Brown.
MORE: NFL Week 4 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread for Every Game
This might not be the Browns’ defense, but this Bengals unit is very good in its own right and should put pressure on Ryan Tannehill and a Titans offensive line that has struggled mightily so far. I don’t trust either team to put up enough points here.
Best Bet: Under 41 (-110 at FanDuel)
Katz: Death. Taxes. Running back rushing yards unders against the Titans. Joe Mixon is averaging just 4.0 yards per carry this season. He’s looked fine but hasn’t really had anywhere to run.
Now, he gets what may be the best run defense in the NFL. The Titans are allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and have allowed a total of 156 rushing yards through three games. I’m expecting a pass-heavy game plan from Cincinnati against Tennessee’s pass-funnel defense. Look for Mixon to finish with something like 14 carries for 42 yards.
Best Bet: Joe Mixon Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -6.5 - Moneyline
Raiders +235, Chargers -290 - Total
48 - Game Time
4:05 p.m. EST - Location
SoFi Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: This Chargers defense doesn’t scare me off from betting on a backup QB getting just under a touchdown. So far this season, they allow the most passing yards per game, and yards per attempt, at a whopping 3327 YPG and 9.1 YPA.
While Jimmy G is out for the Raiders, the Chargers have a lot of injuries themselves. In addition to Mike Williams’ season-ending injury from last week, they will be without Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and Austin Ekeler today.
This should also be a home game for the Raiders playing in Los Angeles, which should be factored in here.
Best Bet: Raiders +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -6 - Moneyline
Patriots +215, Cowboys -265 - Total
43.5 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
AT&T Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: This won’t be a popular play, but we’re here to win money.
The New England Patriots defense is quietly a top-five unit, and that’s after playing Philly and Miami. They held the Eagles’ offense to 18 points and Miami to a third of what Denver allowed. Scheming has always been part of the Patriot way, and even more important now with less talent than usual across the board.
As for the Cowboys, per usual, we never know what we’re going to get. What we do know is they are coming off an awful loss to the Arizona Cardinals in which neither the offense nor defense played well.
The Patriots have a huge advantage on the coaching side, and seven points feels too many here for me.
Best Bet: Patriots +7 (-110 at DraftKings earlier this week)
Soppe: With this spread approaching a touchdown, I’m getting cold feet about betting this ATS, but that doesn’t mean you avoid this clear mismatch altogether.
We get a front-running Dallas Cowboys team (44 first-half points in their two wins this season) that holds a significant talent edge over a Patriots offense that isn’t built to play from behind. They are a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per play and have allowed a touchdown on two-thirds of opponent red-zone drives, flaws that figure to prove fatal against Dallas.
Best Bet: Cowboys halftime/full time (-145 at DraftKings)
Katz: Thankfully for everyone on the Patriots, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s knee has not, in fact, exploded. But he’s clearly a shell of his former self.
Smith-Schuster has surpassed 30 receiving yards just once this season, back in Week 1. Since then, he’s seen his snap share go up, but his target share go down. JuJu’s targets went from seven to six to three. Last week, he ran a season-low 18 routes.
Smith-Schuster is the fifth option in this passing game, behind DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s not explosive and no longer capable of splash plays. As we saw in Week 2, he’s capable of racing up five receptions and still not getting to 30 yards.
Against an angry Cowboys defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if JuJu goes catchless.
Best Bet: JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on BetMGM)
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco Prediction
- Spread
49ers -14 - Moneyline
Cardinals +625, 49ers -950 - Total
43.5 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
Levi’s Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: The Arizona Cardinals, yes those Cardinals, are 3-0 ATS this season, and none have ever been in doubt with a cover margin of 9.6 — fifth best in the league. Arizona has led at halftime in all three games, blowing two of them but holding on last week to defeat the Cowboys.
The Niners will be a step up in competition, especially off long rest, and I don’t expect the Cardinals to pull off another upset. However, I do see them covering. Per John Ewing of BetMGM, teams getting 14+ points are 30-24-2 (56%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Their first-half spread of +8.5 has my interest as well since the Cardinals have won the first half outright all three weeks so far.
Best Bet: Cardinals +14 (-110 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -9.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs -425, Jets +330 - Total
41.5 - Game Time
8:20 p.m. EST - Location
MetLife Stadium - How To Watch
NBC, Peacock
Soppe: Isiah Pacheco has run for over 50 yards in 11 of Kansas City’s past 13 wins, and seven of the Chiefs’ past eight regular-season wins have come by at least six points. The fact that I can back both of those trends and get plus money in this mismatch has me very interested.
Best Bet: Pacheco 50+ rush yards, Chiefs -5.5 (+100 at DraftKings)