NFL Survivor Picks Week 4: Are the Jaguars, Seahawks, and Chiefs Good Options This Week?

Making it to October in your survivor league is an accomplishment, but the job isn't done. Here are my NFL survivor picks for Week 4.

The stunning losses from the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, and Jacksonville Jaguars eliminated a jarring 43.4% of survivor players from their leagues in Week 3.

The next question is … which team should you select to help you get through Week 4 of your survivor league? Let’s take a closer look.

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Survivor Picks Strategy for NFL Week 4

The exact reason I start each one of my weekly survivor articles by telling you that there is no wrong way to go about playing in a survivor league … is because that is 100% the truth.

For example, if you simply selected the biggest favorite every week to start the NFL season — which were the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Kansas City Chiefs — then congrats! Your strategy worked.

For those of you who prefer to map out all of your survivor picks for the coming weeks, I’m here for you, too, as we inch closer to the start of bye weeks across the league.

As mentioned in previous entries, I don’t have any concrete rules when selecting games, but I do have some general guidelines to follow:

  • Avoid divisional games.
  • Avoid picking road teams.
  • Avoid games with bad weather in the forecast.

Sometimes, things like bad weather can’t be avoided if half of the Sunday slate is dealing with terrible playing conditions, but it could help make things a bit less unpredictable when trying to make your selection.

However, some of the guidelines suggested above did come into play for some of these Week 3 upsets.

MORE: Early NFL Week 4 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

The Cowboys lost on the road to a surprising Arizona Cardinals team, the Jacksonville Jaguars lost at home to a divisional opponent, and the Ravens lost to an Indianapolis Colts team starting their backup quarterback in rainy conditions.

Look … big upsets are going to happen in the NFL. Ultimately, you can only control what you can control. Which is exactly why we want to do everything within our power to avoid using top-tier teams who hold significant future value.

As previously mentioned, the biggest favorites over the last three weeks have been the Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs. This means we can’t turn to Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Patrick Mahomes when we get into a pinch later in the season.

Since these were the most selected teams in each week by survivor league players — according to survivorgrid.com data — I will be excluding them from my selection process in the strategy section of this weekly article moving forward in an attempt to best simulate your survivor scenario situation for the week.

If you have any additional survivor questions specific to your league, please don’t hesitate to follow me on Twitter @DerekTateNFL to send me a message or join our Discord channel, so we can talk on that platform.

Teams No Longer Available To Select

Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Selected by 32% of survivor league teams)

Week 2: Buffalo Bills (Selected by 26% of survivor league teams)

Week 3: Kansas City Chiefs (Selected by 21% of survivor league teams)

This is where identifying teams who aren’t necessarily the biggest favorite of the week can strongly benefit you as the season progresses. After all, bye weeks start next week!

The fact that we have three of the biggest Super Bowl contenders in the league unavailable for the rest of the season is definitely going to start presenting some challenges once we get to the back of the season.

For now, though, we still have the Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Jaguars, and Miami Dolphins, who have plenty of future value to rely on in the next month of NFL action.

Strategy 1

Week 4: Minnesota Vikings (vs. CAR)
Week 5: Washington Commanders (vs. CHI)
Week 6: Miami Dolphins (vs. CAR)
Week 7: Las Vegas Raiders (@ CHI)

Top teams still available: PHI, SF, DAL, JAX, CIN

Strategy 2

Week 4: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. HOU)
Week 5: Detroit Lions (vs. CAR)
Week 6: Miami Dolphins (vs. CAR)
Week 7: Las Vegas Raiders (@ CHI)

Top teams still available: PHI, SF, DAL, JAX, CIN

The Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals are getting a bit trickier to pencil in as an easy matchup. I suggest pivoting to the Chicago Bears, New York Jets, or Carolina Panthers if you are simply trying to trail bad teams as your weekly strategy.

Chalk Picks

Unfortunately, we had our first major upset of one of our chalk picks last week when the Cowboys got bamboozled by the Cardinals.

Here’s a look at some of the chalkiest picks for Week 4, according to Numberfire.com.

nfl survivor picks week 4

Here are some of the chalk selections I like heading into Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.

Kansas City Chiefs (@ NYJ)

If you are still fortunate enough to have the Chiefs as an available team and you simply don’t want to stress about making a contrarian pick this week, then you can feel pretty confident that Patrick Mahomes and company will handle their business against the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets.

On paper, the Jets don’t really look like a team you want to pick on in your survivor league. They have a talented pair of running backs, a dynamic wide receiver, and a stingy defense.

Unfortunately, the quarterback just hasn’t been good enough to make me feel like they will be able to score enough points against a Chiefs offense that finally started clicking on all cylinders in their 41-10 blowout win over the Bears in Week 3.

Not to mention, the Chiefs defense has been playing at a very high level to start the season.

The Jets defense may keep it close for a half, but once the Chiefs offense figures it out and starts finding the end zone, the floodgates will open and Wilson won’t be able to keep up with Mahomes.

Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. ATL)

The Jaguars have failed to live up to some of the high expectations many had for this team through the first three weeks of the season.

Sure, we can excuse a Week 2 loss at the hands of the defending Super Bowl Chiefs, but getting embarrassed in a 20-point loss at the hands of the Texans is outright inexcusable.

Trevor Lawrence looks like he is pressing, Calvin Ridley looks rusty, and the defense looks a little suspect.

Now, these concerns could certainly be quelled with a statement win against the Atlanta Falcons at home in Week 4. It helps that this Falcons offense feels very one dimensional because of the inconsistent play of quarterback Desmond Ridder.

Sure, the Falcons boast one of the best rushing attacks in the league, but the Jags defense has actually been quite stingy against opposing running games, allowing just 84 rushing yards per game through the first three weeks of the season.

Slowing down running back Bijan Robinson is easier said than done, but if the Jags offense can get off to a fast start and force Ridder to have to try to win the game with his arm … then it could be just what this team needs to get the season back on track.

Contrarian Pick

Seattle Seahawks (@ NYG)

The New York Giants were without running back Saquon Barkley last week against the San Francisco 49ers … and the results were not very encouraging.

The Giants managed to generate just 12 points and 150 total yards without Barkley available for Week 3.

If Barkley is unable to go for a second straight week, expect the offense to continue to struggle as they try to find an identity without their feature player.

These offensive struggles could be problematic when tasked with keeping pace with a Seattle Seahawks offense that has generated 37 points in each game the last two weeks.

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