Calling all bettors! Despite finishing in last place in the AFC East (again), the New York Jets are poised to make a strong postseason run in 2023. And they’re hoping Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson will feature prominently.
As of this writing, Rodgers is still a Green Bay Packer. But that hasn’t stopped DraftKings Sportsbook from releasing prop bets that assume Rodgers will be a Jet before too long. So let’s dive into the following betting odds to determine which way bettors should lean into these bets.
Early New York Jets Prop Bets for 2023
At this time, DraftKings has two prop bets available for Rodgers and two for Wilson. These bets should be viewed in tandem. Because if Rodgers somehow doesn’t end up in New York, then Wilson’s betting line could tank — or at least dip meaningfully.
Aaron Rodgers Prop Bets
First off, if you believe Rodgers might retire, then, of course, the “unders” make a lot of sense. I mean, why not? Even if he un-retires midseason, you’re set.
But this article assumes Rodgers won’t retire. The Packers organization didn’t need to attend a darkness retreat to see the light. They know they can get solid value for Rodgers in trade negotiations, positioning themselves for another postseason push this coming year.
So let’s assess Rodgers’ passing-yardage and passing-touchdown prop lines. His yardage line is over/under 4,050.5. Across 17 games, he’d need 238.3 passing yards per contest to go over. Last season, Rodgers suffered a career-low 217 passing yards per game. In every other season as a starter, he’s exceeded 238.3.
Interesting. So was last year an anomaly, or a sign of things to come? I’m leaning toward the latter. Despite playing with two (often injured) rookie receivers, Rodgers still had plenty of familiar faces on the field. Yet, he struggled with interceptions and long balls, and in general, leaned on shorter passes. In fact, Rodgers’ average of 4.9 air yards per completed pass was tied for the sixth lowest in the league.
Even more interestingly, he also averaged 4.9 the year before — when he had Davante Adams. In 2019 and 2020, it was 5.4 and 5.5, respectively. In 2018, it was 6.0. Rodgers’ recent trend line has pointed to increased dinking and dunking, where he’s leaning more and more on running backs’ and receivers’ after-the-catch playmaking.
Then there’s the Jets’ vaunted defense, which yielded the NFL’s fourth-fewest points in 2022. Compared to Green Bay’s middling defense, Rodgers’ presence in New York could reduce his role in favor of a more active running game, especially if Breece Hall is good to go by Week 1.
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Not surprisingly, most of Rodgers’ pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns last season came when trailing, and a plurality of his throws came in fourth quarters. If the Jets are more competitive (i.e. their defense continues to flourish), then I cannot conceive of New York putting undue pressure on Rodgers to make play after play while ahead. They’d need him healthy for the postseason. Do enough, but not so much that he’s exposed to unnecessary injury risks.
If he becomes a Jet, I’d expect Rodgers to post numbers similar to what we saw last year in Green Bay. Entirely solid, but far from exceptional. Given the steep drop-off between him and their presumed No. 2 QB, New York presumably would play things safer than usual with their prized asset.
- 2023-2024 Regular-Season Passing Yards: Under 4,050.5 (-120)
- 2023-2024 Regular-Season Passing TDs: Under 31.5 (-120)
Garrett Wilson Prop Bets
Yes, it’s a package deal. A combination of Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Elijah Moore, and every other Jet possibility is overkill in a Zach Wilson-led passing attack. That’s no knock on Zach. He might still have a bright NFL future. But thus far, he’s demonstrated an ability to feed more than (roughly) one receiver per game.
As great as Garrett Wilson is, he’d be a long shot to clear 1,000 yards in that offense. How is that possible? Because Moore often was on the offensive periphery, while Corey Davis missed four games (and might have been less than 100% for several others). This year’s squad should be more competitive with Lazard on board, and with more help likely on the way.
No doubt, Wilson will enter the season as the Jets’ No. 1 WR. However, he’ll need a much higher-powered QB to propel him to last year’s 83-1,103-4 receiving line, or perhaps beyond.
Enter Rodgers. Right? He’s Wilson’s ticket to glory.
Except . . . probably not, for all the reasons stated above, and then some. Wilson played in all 17 games last year. If he missed even one (not unusual for a wideout), then his odds of hitting his current prop line would take a big hit. If Rodgers missed a game, it would also take a hit (though not as much).
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Yes, Wilson dealt with anemic QB play, which should count in his favor when projecting 2023 numbers (if Rodgers is on board). However, Wilson enjoyed 8.6 targets per game last year as the offensive centerpiece, particularly after Hall was lost for the season, at which point Wilson’s targets jumped to 9.5 for the rest of the season versus 7.4 when Hall started.
Additionally, an incredible 71% of Wilson’s targets came when trailing. Only 9% of his targets came when leading, and the 7-10 Jets actually led a decent amount of time last season. Despite being one of the lone bright spots on offense, Wilson was rarely utilized when the Jets were out in front.
Yes, I’m banking on another good year for the up-and-coming Wilson. No, I’m not keen on a breakout season in a more crowded receiving corps and high-end defense.
- 2023-2024 Regular-Season Receiving Yards: Under 1,150.5 (-115)
- 2023-2024 Regular-Season Receiving TDs: Under 9 (-115)