Calling all bettors! The New York Jets are coming off their best divisional last-place finish in franchise history!
Seriously, New York surprised a lot of people for half of last season, and their relatively dim Super Bowl 58 hopes have spiked recently, with growing buzz around a potentially massive QB upgrade. Can this franchise claim its first title since a jaunty, dashing Joe Namath ruled the town? More pressingly, how will free agency and the upcoming NFL draft impact their chances? The following betting odds are based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Jets Super Bowl 58 Odds and Futures
Last February’s early odds for Super Bowl 57 offered clues on what sportsbooks were thinking and how that wove into the thinking of the broader betting market.
For example, the Kansas City Chiefs were the top favorite (+650 odds) of winning the Super Bowl, while the Buffalo Bills were second. Not too shabby as far as year-long predictions go.
But the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers were Nos. 3 and 4, respectively — though, in fairness, Davante Adams’ status in Green Bay remained unclear at that point. The Tennessee Titans (No. 9) and Denver Broncos (No. 10) clearly underwhelmed, and the Philadelphia Eagles weren’t even in the top third.
Naturally, New York wasn’t on most bettors’ radar, as they were expected to finish at the bottom of their division for the sixth time in the previous seven years. In fact, they owned the fifth-worst odds (+13600) heading into Week 1.
And yet, despite losing rookie phenom Breece Hall and sinking beneath the weight of sub-middling quarterbacks, the Jets comfortably exceeded expectations. And guys like Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Sauce Gardner have helped make this club a compelling destination for QBs and others seeking a realistic shot at another title.
As a result, the Jets currently have the seventh-best odds (+1800) of winning Super Bowl 58. There’s a significant belief in the market that they’ll land an instant-impact quarterback and push the Bills (and Dolphins and Patriots) for AFC East dominance.
To accurately assess these bullish odds, let’s dissect some key takeaways from their 2022 campaign.
Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Other 2022 Season Takeaways
I brought up Hall, Wilson, and Gardner for obvious reasons. Sometimes franchises swing and miss (badly) in the offseason. The Jets arguably did so by drafting Zach Wilson No. 2 overall in 2021, or by using a third-round pick last year on TE Jeremy Ruckert after investing a combined $25 million guaranteed to two startable tight ends a few weeks earlier.
But in a quest to rebuild for a big run in 2023 or 2024, the Jets traded Jamal Adams instead of paying him, giving them the No. 10 overall pick. Paired with the No. 4 selection, they locked in franchise cornerstones Gardner and Wilson and then snagged Hall (the presumed No. 1 running back in the draft) near the start of the second round.
For context, the Jets started the season 5-2. They looked like the real deal, even without a reliable quarterback. But that’s when Hall got knocked out for the season. The team managed to win two of their next four, including a statement victory over the Bills and two narrow losses to the Patriots. Not too shabby.
But it wasn’t enough, as they lost their final six contests. In fact, six of their final eight defeats were by a touchdown or less. At full strength, they were far better than their 7-10 record. And with a sizable QB upgrade … the sky is the limit.
Hall is still only 21 years old. Despite breaking merely three tackles and averaging a meek 1.6 yards after contact, he netted an unbelievable 4.2 yards before contact. Again, for context, the next-best RB in that category was Travis Etienne Jr. (3.4 yards before contact).
MORE: New England Patriots Super Bowl Odds
Gaps like that generally don’t exist in the NFL. More remarkably, the Jets’ Michael Carter (2.4) and Zonovan Knight (2.5) lagged far behind and were merely a bit above average in this category. Somehow, Hall found the holes — or at least, enough holes — to drive up this number. His big-play ability earned him 5.8 yards per carry overall. Carter and Knight each averaged only 3.5.
A full season of Hall would give this backfield something it sorely lacked in the second half of the season when the team relied too much on an often non-existent passing attack.
Speaking of which, Garrett Wilson won the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with an 83-1,103-4 receiving line. He had a respectable five drops on 147 targets and also impressively broke 10 tackles. And obviously, he’s only getting better. Presumably, so will the team’s QB position.
It’s a minor miracle that Wilson played as well as did. But those who’d seen him play in college knew he could be a one-man wrecking crew, even with non-starter-caliber quarterbacks targeting him.
The Jets were fourth-worst in scoring offense and fourth-best in scoring defense. In fact, only three defenses were on the field for more minutes than the New York. That unit thrived despite the burden of over-usage.
2023 Offseason Moves
If the Jets do what their fans know needs to be done, then they’ll be one of the trendiest Super Bowl picks around.
MORE: New York Jets Offseason Preview
For now, they’re a hot commodity. We’ll see if the hype matches reality. I’m willing to bet on improvements. But until further notice, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati remain “safer” Super Bowl bets.
NFL Free Agency
March 14 Update: The Jets signed Allen Lazard to a four-year deal. It’s a key step in their pursuit of Aaron Rodgers. At most, New York has a No. 2 WR for 2023 and beyond. At minimum, Lazard will be a weekly tertiary offensive option between Hall and Wilson, and alongside Elijah Moore and other capable-to-middling pass catchers.
March 15 Update: Aaron Rodgers said that he wants to play for the Jets, and that he’s leaving it to Green Bay and New York to work out a deal. At this stage, a deal seems likely to get done, signaling that the Jets are willing to go all in — including trading one or more prized draft picks — to mount a 2023 Super Bowl run.
March 22 Update: In the span of a few hours, the Jets swapped out Elijah Moore for Mecole Hardman. In terms of upside play, it’s a net negative. In terms of locker room contentment, it’s currently a net positive, with Moore making his disgruntlement known to the team last season.
In the coming weeks, we’ll update this section with breaking news on other key Jets arrivals and departures through free agency and trades, how it impacts their Super Bowl odds, and how it might inform our decision to bet on them to win it all.
In early May, we’ll update this section on key Jets draft picks and UDFA signings, with an eye toward any players who could help catapult them to “serious contender” or better.