The New England Patriots began the season with new head coach Mike Vrabel and second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Early optimism about a Wild Card bid faded after a 1-2 start, including home losses to the Raiders and Steelers.
After beating the Panthers in Week 4, the Patriots upset the Bills in Week 5, a pivotal win in the AFC. The following week, New England claimed first place and has maintained it.
What Are the New England Patriots’ Chances of Winning the AFC East and Being the No. 1 Seed?
The math today for the Patriots was simple: beat the Bills and clinch the AFC East. New England entered on a 10-game winning streak and was coming off its bye week. Everything seemed to be on track against the Bills when the Patriots were up 21-0 in the second quarter.
Josh Allen and the Bills scored 35 points in the final 32 minutes, beating New England 35-31.
Drake Maye had two rushing touchdowns but failed to throw for a touchdown for the first time since Week 5 against the Bills. The two games against Buffalo are the only games in which Maye hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass.
Maye entered the week ranked third in PFSN’s Quarterback Impact (QBi) rankings behind only Josh Allen and Jordan Love.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Patriots have a 69.4% chance to win the AFC East and a 99.9% chance to be the top seed in the AFC.
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Entering Week 15, PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric ranks New England’s remaining schedule as the third easiest.
The Patriots have at least a 61.1% chance to win each of their final three games, according to PFSN analytics. Buffalo has at least a 55.3% chance to win each of the final three games.
- Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens (61.1% chance to win)
- Week 17: at New York Jets (68.9% chance to win)
- Week 18: vs. Miami Dolphins (63.1% chance to win)
Even though the Broncos have three of the final four games at home, they have the sixth-hardest remaining schedule according to PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric.
- Week 15: vs. Green Bay Packers (53.4% chance to win)
- Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (56.3% chance to win)
- Week 17: at Kansas City Chiefs (55.3% chance to win)
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (62.1% chance to win)
The loss to the Bills lowered the Patriots’ chances of being the top seed in the AFC to 16.8%. The Broncos have the best odds at 59.0%. New England must win out, and the Broncos must lose twice for the Patriots to secure the No. 1 seed.
New England needs to bounce back quickly as it goes on the road to face the Ravens. Baltimore is trying to stay in the AFC North race after handling the Cincinnati Bengals 24-0 in Week 15. The Patriots conclude their season against two division rivals in Week 17 and 18. The Jets and Dolphins would love to play spoiler to the Patriots’ division title chances in the final two weeks.
