The New England Patriots face off against the Cincinnati Bengals in a midday fight in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Patriots go on the road as heavy underdogs while the Bengals are suddenly facing surprise uncertainty on offense.
For all information NFL betting and fantasy football related, here is a one-stop shop for the Patriots at Bengals season-opening matchup.
Patriots at Bengals Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Patriots +320, Bengals -410
- Total: 41
This is the largest point spread of the week and the only game with a favorite of more than a touchdown. Even with Tee Higgins banged up and Ja’Marr Chase potentially rusty after sitting out of practice early in the week, it’s for good reason — the New England Patriots are that bad.
For Week 1, however, this might be too many points for me to lay with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Over the past decade, teams favored by more than a touchdown in the season opener are 5-11 ATS and 3-10 ATS when the opposing quarterback has at least two years of NFL experience under his belt.
Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett might be a fringe-level starter, but he has plenty of experience with 48 career starts and is facing a Bengals defense that allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per play last season.
I think the Bengals win this one but the Patriots make it a sweat — for Cincinnati fans and survivor pool players everywhere.
Prediction: Bengals 21, Patriots 14
Pick: Patriots +8.5
Patriots at Bengals Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, CBS All-Access
- Radio Stations: 98.5 The Sports Hub, Bengals Radio Network
- Starting QBs: Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow
While New England finds itself with a new head coach, it tabbed a familiar face to take over. Former linebacker (2008-15) and inside linebackers coach (2019-23) Jerod Mayo was promoted, tasked with moving the Patriots on from both Belichick and Tom Brady’s legacies.
Veteran QB Jacoby Brissett returned to the Patriots after being traded by them to the Colts in 2017. After four seasons in Indianapolis, Brissett spent the next three seasons as a bridge/backup QB for Miami, Cleveland, and Washington before returning to New England to do the same thing.
Mayo told the team last week that Brissett would start despite the Patriots drafting quarterback Drake Maye third overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. While Maye looked confident and poised in his preseason action, the state of the Patriots roster is not conducive to a rookie starting.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, has had quite a mixed bag of emotions this offseason. First, and most importantly, Joe Burrow was healthy for the preseason, giving him an entire ramp-up period before the start of the season. In years past, Burrow’s absence from training camp due to injury rehab or last year’s calf injury in the preseason caused Burrow to be cold, with evident rust in the first few weeks of the season.
Burrow even got some snaps in the Bengals preseason opener and looked good throwing a 10-yard TD to Tee Higgins in his first action since season-ending wrist surgery last year. Speaking of Higgins, the WR2 saw himself involved in a contract dispute this offseason. While the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement, Higgins ended up signing his franchise tag, citing his aspirations of winning a Super Bowl as the reason he ended his holdout.
Patriots at Bengals Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow: Sitting Burrow is a viable move for fantasy managers to open this season. I have him just inside my top 12 at the position, so I’m not writing him off, but you need to be aware that he is sitting atop a tier that extends all the way down to QB20 – those 10 quarterbacks are separated by very little, and he is at risk of underwhelming.
First and foremost, we aren’t sure how healthy he is. The great Stephania Bell has been cautioning against labeling a return to practice and a return to form as anything but two different things – Burrow is going to play this week, but he’s been managed all offseason long and could certainly be limited.
As concerning as it is, it gets worse when you look back at slow season openers for Burrow in each of the past two seasons (cumulative Week 1 stats: 84 pass attempts, two touchdowns, and four interceptions). Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase had loud offseasons while Joe Mixon moved on – this offense should still be good, but it might require time.
That’s a lot of moving pieces to take into a game against a Patriots team that excelled on the defensive side of the ball:
- Third-fewest yards per drive
- Fourth-lowest touchdown rate
- Sixth-best red-zone defense
- Seventh in blitz rate
I’m playing both of the primary rookie QBs over Burrow this week if I have the chance, and I think it’s within the range of outcomes for a veteran like Derek Carr (vs. WAS) or Matthew Stafford (at DET) to post a better total to open the season.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson: Some players are gifted enough to rise above an offensive environment that offers support, but most fall victim to such situations and Stevenson seems to be falling into that bucket.
Last season, just 6.4% of his carries produced 10+ yards (31st of 35 qualified RBs). I don’t think he is most to blame for that. It’s tough when 60.9% of your carries come with 7+ defenders in the box, but the situation projects no different this year than last, and that has him sitting outside of my top-20 at the position, a spot in the ranks I expect him to occupy all season long.
If you drafted him as something of a Zero-RB build, he’s fine. He’ll get his fair share of touches, and the Bengals were the second worst first down rush defense of the past decade last season by EPA. It’s not likely to be an exciting day at the office, though his role does carry enough of a floor if you hammered the other positions early.
Zack Moss and Chase Brown: Depending on which way the wind blows, you’ll get a different answer as to who the best play in this backfield will be this season. Could Brown lead in touches but Moss get the touches of value? Will this offense lean heavily on Burrow and leave the backfield without any consistent value?
We are entering the season with more questions than answers, which is why neither of them is a Flex play for me this week against the best per-carry rush defense in the league.
Even if you feel like you have a good read on this offense, will it matter in Week 1? New England allowed a touchdown at the fourth-lowest rate last season and was the sixth-best red-zone unit. Use the first week, and maybe the first month, as a time to learn.
This backfield, in my opinion, is a good bet to produce a top-20 back. We just have to get a feel for who assumes the most advantageous role.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Lynn Polk: The encouraging second-round pick deserves to be rostered due to the lack of clarity in target distribution for this offense, but we are a ways away from playing a Patriot pass catcher in annual leagues with any degree of confidence.
The Bengals allowed a league-high 12.3 yards per completion in 2023, making them a defense to target, generally speaking, though this low-octane offense isn’t one that I’m comfortable betting on at the moment. With Kendrick Bourne (Week 8 ACL tear, PUP list) on the shelf, a high-volume DFS player might take a stab at the highest upside member of this receiving room, but for most of us, Polk is very much a wait-and-see prospect.
DeMario Douglas: Receivers with relatively “boring” skill sets need at least quality or quantity of targets to play in their favor, potentially both – I’m not sure Douglas opens the season with either.
After all, we had a hard time extracting value from Tyler Boyd while he was with the Bengals, and that is who Douglas is. However, Douglas is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field on a consistent basis in an offense that is going to struggle to matriculate the ball down the field.
Douglas averaged 8.6 YAC on balls thrown less than five yards last season, third-best among qualifiers (behind only Deebo Samuel Sr. and Rashee Rice), but this situation simply isn’t built for fantasy success.
I’d hang onto him for now if you don’t have a pressing, must-add on the wire and hope that he can earn a heavy target share, but I’m not optimistic that this offense supports a single pass catcher you have to roster.
Ja’Marr Chase: His status for this game has become a talking point, as he and head coach Zach Taylor are pretty clearly not on the same page.
Last week, Taylor indicated that Chase would be a full participant in practice despite a contract “hold in,” and less than 24 hours later, the team’s WR1 showed up late for practice wearing street clothes and not pads.
With two years left on his deal, this appears to be more of a power play by Chase than the use of much leverage, but the fact remains that his status is uncertain. If he plays, you play him. I hate to make it that simple, but he has seven of the top-10 WR games produced over the past two seasons when Burrow is under center, including four better than Higgins’ best over that stretch.
Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas should be added to the back end of your roster whether you roster Chase or not – free pieces of a Burrow-led offense are worth a roll of the dice should this situation get uglier.
Tee Higgins: And we all thought Higgins would be the most disgruntled Bengal receiver in Cincy entering the season. It hasn’t been a banner offseason for the Orange and Black, but Higgins has been with the team and, regardless of Chase’s status, might be most well-positioned to make a mark against a stingy Patriots defense.
Last season, 12 of the top 14 WR performances against New England saw that player post at least a 9.8 aDOT in that game, with the average being far higher than that (13.4).
Since the start of 2022 on passes from Joe Burrow:
- Higgins: 11.5 aDOT
- Chase: 9.5 aDOT
Higgins was viewed as the bottom of the “you’re very good, but you’re still the WR2 in your own offense” tier of receivers, getting picked up to two rounds after Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith. Even in a tough matchup, I have him ranked ahead of two of those three and believe he’s a locked-in WR2.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: Henry scored twice in his first two games and three times in his final two – and once in between. With this team bringing in target competition without much promise in terms of significant offensive upside, this isn’t a unit I’m targeting if I’m streaming the tight end position.
If the scratch you need to itch is that of an AFC East waiver wire tight end, Tyler Conklin and Jonnu Smith have my attention more than Henry.
Mike Gesicki: There will be a time this season in which the stat “he runs a route on over 70% of his career snaps” will matter, and that is why I have him labeled as a Fantasy Football Tight End Sleeper, but in Week 1, there is no need to go to a thin option like this.
I believe there will be a third option in this passing game that will be of interest to fantasy managers and Gesicki is my bet. Add him to your watch list now and be patient.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Patriots at Bengals Key Stats To Know
Patriots
Team: The Patriots made just 64% of their field goal attempts last season, the lowest rate for a team with 20+ attempts since the 2012 Packers.
QB: Jacoby Brissett has started eight September games in his career and seven have been decided by a single possession — five by a field goal or less.
Offense: Last season, just 6.4% of Rhamondre Stevenson’s carries produced 10+ yards (31st of 35 qualified RBs).
Defense: The Patriots were as stingy as anyone on the defensive side of the ball last season, ranking with the 3rd fewest yards per drive, 4th lowest touchdown rate, 6th best red zone defense, and 7th in blitz rate
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson scored 5.1% more points than expected as a rookie. That rate dropped to -2.8% in 2022 and to -8.7% last season.
Betting: Over the past decade, teams catching more than seven points in the season opener are 11-5 against the spread, and 10-3 against the spread when their QB has at least two years of NFL experience under his belt.
Bengals
Team: Teams facing the Bengals started drives 27.8 yards out from their end zone following a punt, the worst (highest) mark in the NFL (average: 24.6 yards) … New England ranked 27th (26.4).
QB: Among the 28 quarterbacks with 300+ pass attempts last season, Joe Burrow got rid of the ball faster than league average, a league-high 79.5% of the time (he ranked 3rd over the two seasons prior with a 76.1% rate).
Offense: In 67.3% of Burrow’s career starts, the Bengals have made 3+ trips to the red zone (5+ in 21.2%).
Defense: The Bengals allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per play last season and no worse than 5.5 in either of the two seasons prior.
Fantasy: Mike Gesicki has run a route on over 70% of his professional snaps. The Bengals moved on from Tyler Boyd this offseason and their two primary receivers aren’t exactly happy.
Betting: Over the past five Septembers, 14 of 18 Bengals games have come in under the total, the highest rate in the league.