NFL news happens each and every day. In fantasy football, it is important to have an awareness and understanding of the news and its potential implications. Moody’s Mailbag will address that news and answer questions from a statistical angle to help you understand what’s happening during the season and offseason.
Fantasy Football News | Raheem Mostert set to lead 49ers’ backfield again?
Question: What is the fantasy impact of the news that Raheem Mostert may be the featured back for the 49ers when he is healthy? How does this impact the other backs when it comes to fantasy drafts?
Mostert broke out during the latter half of the 2019 season. From Weeks 12-17, he averaged 18 PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, that momentum did not carry over to the 2020 season.
Mostert was only active in eight games. This allowed running backs Jeff Wilson and JaMycal Hasty to shine as the lead rushers in the 49ers’ backfield.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has a reputation for leveraging a committee approach at running back. Since arriving in San Francisco in 2017, he’s provided his running backs an average of 32.2 opportunities per game. This trend will continue in 2021.
Mostert may be the featured back, and according to Fantasy Football Calculator, Sleeper, and the National Fantasy Championship, his ADP reflects that. All running backs will be involved, so my recommendation is to bypass Mostert and target Trey Sermon or Wayne Gallman later in fantasy drafts.
Moody’s Mailbag | Could A.J. Brown miss time?
Question: Should we be worried about the latest news regarding A.J. Brown’s knees? Is there any reason to hesitate drafting him at his current ADP?
A.J. Brown had surgical cleanup procedures on both knees beginning in January. The rehab work has kept him from polishing his game on the field this offseason.
Brown dealt with a knee injury for most of 2020. He missed Week 2 and Week 3 but still averaged 18 PPR fantasy points in 14 active games with six WR1 finishes.
You shouldn’t hesitate to draft Brown at his current ADP because of this news. Some are worried about his outlook because the Tennessee Titans traded for Julio Jones. However, Brown’s target share will remain large enough for him to finish 2021 as a WR1.
Fantasy Football News | Could Mike Williams see an expanded role in Los Angeles?
Question: Does Mike Williams’ fantasy value increase with the latest news out of Los Angeles? Is he a player to target in fantasy drafts?
Williams’ fantasy value does increase after offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi stated he expects a big year from the receiver. Williams is entering the final year of his contract and would like to earn a career-defining payday. He is expected to play the X receiver spot in Lombardi’s offense, who was previously the quarterbacks coach with the New Orleans Saints.
My takeaway from this news is not that Williams will emulate Michael Thomas but that he’ll see a larger target share in 2021. He already has one season on his résumé with 1,000+ receiving yards. Williams finished as a WR3 or higher in 79% of 56 active games despite averaging 4.7 targets per game in his career.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert generated a passer rating of 100.6 when throwing to Williams last year. Furthermore, Williams has little competition for targets outside of Keenan Allen.
Williams’ health is a concern, but few players have his upside when looking at his ADP. He is someone you should target in fantasy drafts.
Moody’s Mailbag | Can we trust Damien Harris in New England?
Question: With the latest news out of New England, how confident should we feel about drafting Damien Harris as a potential every-week starter?
I’d feel very comfortable selecting Harris as a potential every-week starter. The Patriots have consistently had a robust running game with outstanding offensive line play. New England’s running back by committee approach can be frustrating, but hear me out.
The Patriots averaged the third-most rushing attempts (31.4) last season. Harris got off to a slow start due to an ankle injury. However, in 10 games, he averaged nearly 14 rushing attempts and 69 rushing yards, with 0.67 fantasy points per attempt in each contest. He did that when nearly all of his touches came on first and second down.
Furthermore, Harris averaged 5 yards per attempt in 2020 while facing stacked boxes on 42.3% of his carries. The Patriots did not pick up running back Sony Michel’s fifth-year option, and they will likely cut him during the preseason.
The stars are aligning for Harris to have a breakout campaign. His ceiling will be even higher if rookie Mac Jones is named the starter prior to Week 1.
Fantasy Football News | Reasons to be positive about Emmanuel Sanders
Question: What does the latest news regarding Emmanuel Sanders mean for his fantasy value, as well as the value of Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis?
The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia believes that Sanders is more likely than Gabriel Davis to inherit John Brown’s role in the Buffalo Bills’ offense in 2021.
Brown averaged 7 targets, 4.4 receptions, 63.2 receiving yards, and 13.2 PPR fantasy points per game in 24 active games with the Bills from 2019 to 2020. He averaged 95.3 receiving air yards per game over that time frame. Air yards indicate how far a pass travels in the air before it is caught.
Sanders’ receiving air yards per game has dwindled since 2016, resulting in only 56 per game the past two seasons. He is currently being drafted in the 14th round, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. This news will likely cause his ADP to surpass Davis’ in drafts soon.
The Bills’ offense is one that you’ll want exposure to. Buffalo averaged the fourth-most total yards (385.4) and third-most points (30) per game in 2020.
How will Sanders impact Beasley and Davis?
Sanders’ presence will negatively impact Cole Beasley more than Davis, and here’s why.
Last season, Davis played in all 16 games, starting in 11 of them. He finished as a WR3 or better in 81% of his games in PPR. Davis recorded 62 targets, 35 receptions, 599 receiving yards, 945 receiving air yards, and 7 touchdowns. Were you aware that his receiving air yards ranked second on the team behind Stefon Diggs (1,713)?
Bills quarterback Josh Allen had a passer rating of 108 when throwing to Davis during the regular season. It is also worth mentioning that Buffalo ranked near the top of the NFL in three wide receiver sets last season. There is always opportunity in chaos, and I’d continue to prioritize Davis in fantasy drafts.
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Eric is a Senior Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow Eric on Twitter @EricNMoody.
