Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker in the running for RB1 in 2022 NFL Draft?

Michigan State running back and 2022 NFL Draft prospect Kenneth Walker III triumphantly announced himself as a Heisman Trophy front-runner last Saturday during the Spartans’ 37-33 win over Michigan. He tore apart the Wolverines’ defense to the tune of 23 carries for 197 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns.

Already, Walker is a legendary figure on the college football circuit. He’s been one of the key catalysts in Michigan State’s resurgence with 175 carries for 1,194 yards and 14 touchdowns through eight games. But as Walker piles up more production, and as 2022 grows closer, a question looms in the minds of all who watch him: Is he a legitimate 2022 NFL Draft prospect? And if so, does he have RB1 potential?

Can Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker be 2022’s RB1?

Running back is an interesting position to evaluate. The value of the position has decreased overall in recent years, but exceptional running backs are still very important. Replacement-level RBs can find success in good situations, but exceptional running backs expand the possibilities for an offense and can help guide teams through adversity — be it injuries or roster turnover.

Having said that, when looking for exceptional RBs, there are a few traits I value more highly than most. Physically, explosiveness is a must for early-round consideration. So too is agility, as well as balance — both in contact and non-contact situations. There’s often a positive correlation between balance and size. Not every running back has to be Derrick Henry, but generally, well-rounded backs are fairly dense — at least 210 pounds.

Related | Heisman Watch: Kenneth Walker III’s odds improve as he waltzes over the Wolverines in Week 9

Early-round backs can’t just be physically talented, however. They also have to have strong instincts. Instincts, in a vague sense, can be tough to identify when evaluating. Thus, look for some of the traits that fall under the blanket of instincts — such as vision, quick processing ability, spatial awareness, and varying stride lengths.

Now that we have an idea of what the early-round, ideal RB1 looks like, let’s examine Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker. Does he have what it takes to claim that mantle? Let’s look back on Walker’s dominant outing against Michigan and see if we can pick out the traits found in an RB1.

Walker’s physical tools

Walker measures in at 5’10”, 210 pounds, so he quickly checks our size requirements in the RB1 debate. 210 is a good weight, but it’s especially good at 5’10”. Not only does he have good density, but he also has a strong center of gravity at his height.

Next, let’s look for explosiveness. While Walker’s explosiveness may not be comparatively elite, it no doubt passes the threshold sought for in starting running backs. Walker has a nice blend of short-range burst and long-track explosiveness, and he knows when to use each type.

Here, Walker quickly finds an open lane around the edge. Watch him accelerate quickly in space, widening his stride lengths to cover more ground.

Walker’s ability to gear up quickly is a big part of his game. On top of his long-track explosiveness, Walker also has a great deal of short-range spryness. He can stack quick cuts in succession without losing his balance. Walker’s physical creative capacity is extremely impressive, and a lot of it derives from that burst.

Expanding on Kenneth Walker’s creative capacity

Perhaps no play exemplified Walker’s multifaceted creation ability better than this one on Saturday. Upon taking the handoff, Walker sees Michigan DL Julius Welschof beating his block. Walker cuts to the right and finds himself face to face with two more Michigan defenders.

Exposed with no blockers, Walker takes matters into his own hands. Immediately after his first jump cut, Walker violently plants his front foot and cuts again, this time out toward the sideline — stacking his cuts with smooth and sudden quickness. He then uses his explosiveness to negate both defenders’ tackling angles and surges into space. All this happens in the span of about three seconds.

When Walker meets the safety coming downhill, he once again levies a quick shuffle-cut, using his loose hips to manipulate space and disrupt the safety’s attack angle. This move allows Walker to glean another 13 yards out of the play.

Also, notice how much lean Walker runs with as he proceeds out of his cuts. That lean and natural balance allows Walker to pinch tighter angles as he accelerates upfield — like a motorcycle hugging a tight curve. Walker is great in space, but he’s able to set himself up for those opportunities with his lateral agility, instinctive footwork, creation capacity, and burst.

Walker can use his natural traits in rapid succession

Many runners have the necessary traits but don’t always use them in conjunction consistently enough. Walker doesn’t have this problem. On any given run, Walker has his explosiveness, balance, agility, and vision all on speed dial. Here’s another example from the Michigan game.

Here, Walker attempts to pierce through the trenches, but his hole closes before he can sneak through. Walker then has to create.

His balance allows him to escape congestion and work to the C-gap, but Walker encounters Aidan Hutchinson soon after diverting course. With a brisk cut, Walker jolts back outside, allowing a blocker to seal off Hutchinson.

And then, once he’s in the clear, Walker explodes upfield, once again showing off his abrupt acceleration and long-strider speed in space. At that moment, he’s gone.

Here’s another angle of the play above, which does well to show the play progression in more depth. Walker is aiming to take the ball through the B-gap, but quick penetration from Welschof causes the play to collapse.

Walker is funneled into congestion by Welschof, but he doesn’t simply fall forward onto the pile. Aware of his outlet, Walker doesn’t panic. He escapes into space using methodical footwork and short-range burst, then attacks his open lane with urgency, cutting upfield at an impressively acute angle.

The subtle impact of Kenneth Walker’s instincts

There’s an enticing duality in Walker’s running style that’s on display in the plays above. He has the density and contact balance to stay on his feet through congestion. However, he also has the finesse, burst, and quick processing ability to create, when entering congestion yields a less optimal result.

Some running backs have trouble improvising. But Walker has a Door A, Door B, and Door C in his mind before the snap, and he’s always prepared for the unexpected. Of course, instincts aren’t only necessary for improvisation. Instincts also allow running backs to operate in structure at their highest efficiency.

The play below is effective in conveying the covert impact Walker’s instincts have on every snap. This is an outside-zone concept. All Walker has to do is follow his blocks and cut upfield at the right time. Simple, right? Not completely.

On this play, the right tackle’s block is quickly shed by a defensive lineman. Suddenly, it becomes complicated. If Walker hugs the line too closely while reading the gaps, then he wanders right into the lineman’s reach. If he’s over-eager, tries to pinch his angle, or cuts inside prematurely, he risks being slowed up and tackled for a loss.

Instead, Walker’s instincts take over. Upon seeing the penetrating lineman, Walker flattens himself toward the sideline. He slows up just enough to maintain alignment with the hole but stays parallel until he kills the lineman’s angle. Then, the instant the lineman dives and misses, Walker sinks his hips and explodes upfield.

Instincts comprise many things

Sometimes, those little details in the previous play go unnoticed. Sometimes, no one notices until the RB breaks free. But Walker doesn’t break free without his acute awareness of positioning and pacing. He’s incredibly controlled and patient in the backfield, but at the same time, there’s no indecisiveness. Walker times his cut upfield at the exact moment he needs to.

That mix of patience and decisiveness — that innate feel for positioning and timing — is the type of instinct that makes Walker so consistently deadly as a runner. The touchdown play below is yet another example.

Walker uses his instincts to seal the deal in East Lansing

This is the game-winner from Walker. It’s a read option, on which Payton Thorne reads David Ojabo looming outside. He subsequently opts to hand the ball off to Walker. Walker kicks off the rep with a quick hop step, then gets skinny and hits the hole with force. From there, his explosiveness takes him to the ever-familiar end zone.

From the angle above, this play looks fairly simple. And relatively speaking, it is. But there’s still a bit of instinct that’s shown from the angle below. Even though Thorne gives Walker the hand-off to avoid Ojabo, Ojabo is still a looming threat. And with Ojabo’s burst and length, Walker has to be careful how he approaches the hole. If he loops in from the outside or takes too wide of an angle, there’s a chance Ojabo gets his hands on him.

As he has a habit of doing, however, Walker helps keep himself clean with his own positioning awareness. Rather than heading straight for the hole, Walker veers to the left off his first cut. This may seem like a small move, but it creates more space between Walker and the unblocked defender. And then, from that safer launch platform, Walker is able to hit the hole without issue.

The looseness in his hips allows Walker to manipulate leverage like this in such a short time span. But Walker is the one who ultimately uses his traits so efficiently.

It’s worth noting that, since Ojabo didn’t react particularly quickly, Walker might not have had anything to worry about. But in the NFL, that would assuredly be different. It’s a good habit for Walker to get into, to always maximize his leverage through space manipulation.

Can Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker be RB1 in the 2022 NFL Draft?

There’s a reason Walker is one of the nation’s leading rushers, and a reason Michigan State is in contention for the Big Ten and the College Football Playoff with him in the backfield. Sure, Mel Tucker has been a huge part of the program’s rebuild. And transferring from the Wake Forest Demon Deacons allowed Walker to benefit from the opportunity in East Lansing.

Nevertheless, while circumstances have helped to fuel Walker’s rise, Walker’s talent alone is the primary catalyst for his ascension. Jim Harbaugh has an extremely talented defense, with a strong front and linebackers who can run fill. Walker ran all over them in Week 9.

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But the question isn’t whether or not Walker can be successful at the college level. By now, we know that’s true. The question is, can Walker be the RB1 in the 2022 NFL Draft?

As a pure runner, Walker clearly has the talent to reach that pinnacle. Physically, he’s dense, explosive, agile, and extremely well-balanced. And mentally, he’s quick, adaptable, and instinctive. On the ground, he checks almost every box.

What might stop him from being RB1 in 2022?

Having said all this, there’s one thing precluding Walker from competing for the RB1 spot right now: his passing-down utility. Early-round running backs not only need to be talented runners, but they also need to provide utility on passing downs. That not only means producing as a pass catcher but also protecting the quarterback in pass protection.

As of now, Walker is at best unproven in those categories, and at worst uninspiring. He’s shown flashes of body control as a pass catcher. Additionally, his traits translate well there, so volume might be a larger issue than pure ability. However, to this point, his sample size is so limited, there’s not much at all to go off of.

As a pass blocker, Walker is quantifiably below-average. He has the frame to get better, but as of now, he rarely strikes defenders cleanly. He also doesn’t do a good job sustaining blocks, and his attack angles can be inconsistent, opening up windows for defenders to reach the QB.

Walker will not be the RB1 in 2022 until he improves his pass blocking

Walker legitimately has elite potential as a pure runner. However, until he improves his pass blocking and shows off more proven receiving ability, he won’t sniff the RB1 spot from Isaiah Spiller. And that lack of proven three-down utility might lose him fans in some war rooms.

Nevertheless, Walker has the upside and several things you can’t teach. His all-around running prowess and rare creation capacity make him a desirable rotation leader. If he can show improvement on passing downs, there won’t be much stopping him from rising to the top.