No. 10 Houston (17-2, 5-1 Big 12) travels to Fort Worth to face TCU (13-7, 3-4 Big 12) on Wednesday at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, with the Horned Frogs looking to avenge last year’s defeat. Who wins? Our Houston vs. TCU prediction dives into the projected lineups, key matchups, and offers a score forecast as Big 12 basketball returns to your screens.
Houston vs. TCU Projected Lineups and Key Matchups
Houston Cougars
- Kingston Flemings (17.0 PPG)
- Milos Uzan (11.3 PPG)
- Emanuel Sharp (16.1 PPG)
- Joseph Tugler (8.4 PPG)
- Chris Cenac Jr. (9.2 PPG)
TCU Horned Frogs
- Brock Harding (7.8 PPG)
- Jayden Pierre (11.1 PPG)
- Liutauras Lelevicius (9.5 PPG)
- Xavier Edmonds (11.7 PPG)
- David Punch (14.6 PPG)
The Cougars look to return to their winning ways after suffering a 90-86 loss at No. 12 Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon, their first conference setback of the season and only the fifth in more than two years in the league.
Against the Red Raiders, freshman point guard Kingston Flemings led all players with 42 points on 15-of-26 shooting. The San Antonio, Texas, native set a Houston freshman single-game scoring record, topping the previous mark by Cougar great Rob Williams against Rice during the 1979-80 season.
Houston allows 61.6 points per game, which is the third-fewest in the country. Offensively, the Cougars take care of the ball well at just 8.5 turnovers per game, which ranks second nationally. Kelvin Sampson’s teams rarely slip twice in a row, adding urgency to this road trip.
TCU is 1-4 against AP Top 25 teams this season. The win came against another No. 10-ranked team in Florida. The Horned Frogs have won two straight, including a 97-90 road win at Baylor, and have won six of the last nine games against top 10 opponents at home.
Sophomore David Punch leads the team in points (14.6) and rebounds (7.8), but missed the last game against Baylor due to illness, and his status for Wednesday remains uncertain.
Punch is one of two players nationally averaging at least 14 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 2 blocks. Brock Harding ranks fourth in the Big 12 and 19th nationally with 6.3 assists per game, and junior Liutauras Lelevicius is 26-of-26 from the free throw line, the most in the nation without a miss.
Houston vs. TCU Prediction and Preview
The last time these teams met at TCU, it was the Horned Frogs muscling up for a one-point upset over the then second-ranked Cougars. I wouldn’t expect a repeat.
These two teams go about their business a bit differently. TCU is led by two paint-oriented big men who both average over 11 points, five rebounds, and shoot over 50% from the field, while Houston’s starting trio of guards accounts for 44.4% of their 79.1 points per game.
Given their strengths, I think the winner of this game is the team that manages the opponent best. That is, will the Cougars’ front line prove to be more of an obstacle for TCU’s two bigs, or will the Horned Frog guards offer enough resistance to slow the 10th-ranked team in the nation?
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Joseph Tugler, a junior with 53 career starts under his belt, should be the difference maker in this one.
He’s not counted on a ton on the offensive end (8.4 points), but his presence inside (career: 1.6 blocks and 5.3 rebounds per game in just over 20 minutes a night) should give the TCU rim runners more issues than a pair of new-to-the-program guards will provide Houston’s elite threesome of ball-handlers.
I’ve got this game closer than some other experts think, but with a distinct advantage at the stripe (Emanuel Sharp’s 85.3% certainly helps), I think the Cougars can avoid consecutive defeats with a late spurt.
Prediction: Houston 69, TCU 65
How To Watch Houston vs. TCU
- Date: Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2025
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
- Arena: Schollmaier Arena
- TV Channel: ESPN2
- Live Stream: FuboTV
