Purdue just dropped consecutive games to UCLA and Illinois, and yet the Boilermakers still sit atop PFSN’s Men’s CBB Basketball Power Rankings heading into late January. These aren’t beauty pageant standings — they’re built based on what metrics have been predictive for March success. So, how does the rest of the top 25 stack up ahead of another week of top-tier games?
1) Purdue
Back-to-back losses are obviously a problem, but these are March Madness-centric rankings, and in that vein, this is a Braden Smith-led team that has strong defensive and rebounding metrics. If those sustain, this should be one of the final teams playing this season thanks to their high-floor point guard. Their best game isn’t on par with some of the other Tier 1 teams, but their median performance is as good as any.
Matt Painter has been here before — his best teams tend to hit a January wall before rounding into form. The loss at UCLA stung (69-67 on a late Tyler Bilodeau three), and Keaton Wagler’s 46-point explosion for Illinois on Saturday was a gut punch. But Smith remains the most reliable floor general in the sport, and Purdue’s identity doesn’t evaporate because of two games.
2) Michigan
Two top-10 matchups loom, but you could make the case that Michigan’s ‘A’ game is better than anyone else’s in the country. Yaxel Lendeborg can be a mystery box when shooting from distance, but he’s a defensive asset who is carrying heavy offensive usage and still largely thriving (67.7% on 2’s, 83.8% from the line).
Elliot Cadeau, a UNC transfer, is a bit underappreciated, but his ability to run this offense and knock down open triples could prove to be what unlocks this team should they push for their first title since 1989. The Wolverines get Nebraska on Tuesday — a chance to make a serious statement.
3) Duke
Cameron Boozer can’t be stopped, and until that changes, who is to say this Duke team doesn’t fulfill what we thought was destiny for the 2024-25 squad?
This is the best of the “they are great but are at risk of throwing away a game at the FT line” teams that you’ll come across in these rankings, but Boozer’s greatness and Caleb Foster’s ability to excel in an expanded role give this team lofty expectations.
When Boozer dropped 32 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and three steals against Wake Forest, it looked routine. That’s the scary part.
4) Nebraska
Their profile suggests they’ve done enough to be thought of as a title threat, but for the skeptics out there, here comes a four-game run that should allow them to change your opinion. They are happy to play the math game with you and launch triples, but a top-25 defense and a top-10 foul rate make them more than just a cute story.
This is a real 20-0 team that isn’t going away as the competition increases. Fred Hoiberg has built something special in Lincoln — Pryce Sandfort’s four consecutive 20-point games and Sam Hoiberg’s relentless motor have turned preseason doubters into believers. Tuesday at Michigan is the ultimate proving ground.
5) Arizona
The undefeated Wildcats have cruised since a crazy first six weeks of the season, but that ends tonight. They travel to BYU as part of another string of difficult games that wraps with a date in Houston against the Cougars on February 21.
Koa Peat is the real deal on the inside (59.8% on 2’s), and his ability to largely stay out of foul trouble has been valuable. If they knock down a few shots early, they can truly run with any team in the country. Tommy Lloyd’s squad is physically imposing and mentally tough — the combination that travels in March.
6) Illinois
None of their three losses is “bad,” and the win at Purdue on Saturday was huge. Keaton Wagler deserved to be the story of the weekend (46 points on 13-17 shooting on the road against a top-5 team from a freshman), but this team has four players averaging over a dozen points, and they all shoot over 80% from the stripe.
If you go cold for a few minutes, you’re digging out of a big hole before you know it, and this team is built to close games. Brad Underwood has assembled the kind of balanced roster that can survive one guy having an off night.
7) Iowa State
Two straight easy wins after the consecutive road losses have proven what we thought was true: this team is as tough as any in the nation. They join Houston and Gonzaga as the only programs that are top-15 in both defensive efficiency and assist-to-turnover rate this season.
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The tenacity travels, and with a pair of tall, experienced scorers that can get their own shot whenever needed, this is very much a team that could win the final game of this season.
8) Louisville
Consecutive double-digit point wins were something this team needed after a 5-5 stretch that spanned nearly six weeks. This is a team that defends hard, closes out possessions well, and, with Mikel Brown Jr. back, has the type of impactful guard depth that makes them interesting at a high level.
Not just for tonight in Cameron Indoor, but for the long run: this isn’t the type of team anyone wants to play in a tournament setting where you’re playing twice in three days. Brown’s draft stock keeps rising, and Ryan Conwell provides the senior steadiness every championship team needs.
9) Arkansas
Tuesday’s blowout of Vanderbilt helped reinforce our priors: this is a very good team that is great at not beating itself. An offense that is run by one of the best freshmen in the nation is one thing, but one that grades as elite in assist-to-turnover ratio (25-to-7 vs. Vanderbilt) is another.
We’ve run these power rankings internally for a month now, and Arkansas has been higher for us than the polls. John Calipari’s fingerprints are all over this roster’s discipline and toughness.
10) Gonzaga
The Zags have won 14 straight after getting their doors blown off by the Wolverines back in November, and it’s really not a complicated profile: rebound and defend.
Behind Graham Ike, that’s a solid plan, but with none of their top three scorers being a real threat from distance, questions about how many consecutive games they can win in March are fair. Mark Few has navigated this challenge before, but the bracket could be unkind if they draw a team that can spread them out.
11) Iowa
The way the Hawkeyes program functions, they always grade out better in the predictive stuff than in the on-court results. They might not actually be this good, but at the same time, their profile suggests that their battling both Illinois and Purdue earlier this month wasn’t a fluke.
Bennett Stirtz is among the best guards in the nation, and that gives them a shot on any night. Ben McCollum has the defense humming (60.8 PPG allowed, fourth-best in the nation), and that travels well into hostile environments.
12) North Carolina
If not bailed out by 10-of-22 shooting from three on Saturday in Virginia, free-throw shooting would have yet again been the story. This is an ultra-talented team that has Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar manning the paint while a plethora of guards handle the rest, but the inability to make their freebies costs them.
In the past, FT% has been a predictive measure for March Madness success, and that has us worried. The raw talent to compete at the highest levels is there — the execution at the stripe is not.
13) Brigham Young
Remember when the Cavs were working hard to surround LeBron James with shooting? BYU has something along those lines in an offense that revolves around NBA-ready AJ Dybantsa, but how about a top-40 defense?
The profile looks legit, and now it’s time to show us: two meetings with Arizona highlight four top-10 matchups between tonight and February 21. Kevin Young’s first season in Provo could end with a deep March run if Dybantsa keeps performing like the projected lottery pick he is.
14) Michigan State
Sparty has dropped its two most recent games against high-level competition and handled everyone else. They have home tests against Michigan and Illinois over the next two weeks: with four legit threats to lead them in scoring on any given night and a specialist in Kur Teng that can get hot from distance, this team should be able to show well against the best in the nation.
Tom Izzo’s track record in March buys them plenty of rope, but they need signature wins soon.
15) Indiana
Is this a football school? Not so fast. The 13-7 record is anything but impressive, though it should be noted that the offense grades out better than the record, and a top-100 defense gives them a chance to make some noise.
They host a “reeling” Boilermakers team on Tuesday — a big chance for them to make a statement and steal some momentum in the Big Ten race.
16) Kansas
Darryn Peterson’s ankle injury might be a blessing? This team is forming an identity with their best player appearing in just 10 games, and that could serve them well.
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Of course, for their ceiling to hit in March (or April?), Peterson needs to be a full go, but this four-game win streak has impressed with them on the doorstep of a brutal next two weeks. Bill Self teams always seem to find their footing by late February.
17) SMU
Consecutive wins after losing three of four for the ‘Stangs, a team that checks most of the offensive boxes despite a tough schedule to date. They’ve been led in scoring by a different player in four of their past five games, a balance that can make them a tough out come tournament time. Andy Enfield’s system rewards versatility, and SMU has plenty of it.
18) Texas Tech
The win over Houston gave this team five straight and nine of 10 (three of which came against top-11 teams). JT Toppin returned to school on a mission, and Christian Anderson’s efficiency has taken off as his usage has spiked. Grant McCasland has the Red Raiders playing with the defensive identity that’s become synonymous with Lubbock.
19) NC State
A revenge game awaits Quadir Copeland this week against the Orange, and he’s elevating himself to the level of a superstar. He leads the Wolfpack in points, assists, and steals. He’s been a liability in the past from downtown, but a 20-of-42 start to this season has him putting opponents in difficult spots.
When your best player is shooting 47.6% from three after years of struggles, the ceiling rises considerably.
20) UConn
They can’t make free throws and foul too much. The one-loss Huskies are a very good team, but they aren’t as flawless as you might assume given their sparkling record and spot in the national polls. Dan Hurley has won back-to-back titles, so he gets every benefit of the doubt, but this version of UConn has shown vulnerability that previous editions did not.
21) Vanderbilt
The ‘Dores righted the ship at Mississippi State on Saturday with a 32-point win. The Tyler Tanner/Duke Miles backcourt averages 34 points and 9.6 assists a night: if you are of the belief that guard play dictates March results, don’t sleep on Vandy. Mark Byington has this program trending in the right direction for the first time in years.
22) Virginia
The Cavaliers were upset at home by North Carolina, but a +16 showing on the glass was impressive. The defense remains solid, but this UVA team actually ranks better in eFG% than defensive efficiency: Saturday was a blip for a team that can be dangerous.
Ryan Odom has this program playing a different brand than the Bennett era, and freshman Thijs de Ridder has been a revelation.
23) Kentucky
The Wildcats have won five straight and have Otega Oweh rounding into form — two total turnovers in his past two games, 18-plus points in six of his past seven. When your best player stops giving possessions away, good things happen. Mark Pope’s first season in Lexington has been a roller coaster, but the trajectory is pointing upward.
24) Baylor
Results-wise, the Bears are a mess right now, but with a low opponent FT rate and a brutal two-week stretch behind them, Cameron Carr and company should be better moving forward. Scott Drew’s teams always figure it out eventually, and the schedule softens enough to let them find their footing before Selection Sunday.
25) Tulsa
One of two teams in the country to rank top-20 in both FT% and eFG%, the Golden Hurricane has won 17 of 20 and has three players averaging over 14 PPG. Eric Konkol has built a mid-major monster that could make serious noise if they draw the right first-round matchup. The efficiency numbers are real, and they’ve sustained them across a 20-game sample.
