As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. At PFN, we’re researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Minnesota Vikings WR K.J. Osborn’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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K.J. Osborn’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
By most measures, Osborn has outperformed NFL expectations through three seasons. Drafted near the end of the fifth round in 2020, Osborn profiled more as an adept punt returner than as a weekly WR asset.
As a rookie, he earned 119 snaps — all as a special teamer. Wideouts like Chad Beebe, Olabisi Johnson, and even Tajae Sharpe were higher on the WR pecking order.
The following season, however, when Adam Thielen went down with an injury, Osborn earned his opportunity. During the veteran’s four-game absence, Osborn compiled a 10-175-3 receiving line. From a fantasy perspective, he was a much-needed filler and, officially, an ascending No. 3 WR.
Last year went similarly. Although Thielen stayed healthy, Osborn essentially matched his previous year’s output. With Thielen on the move this offseason, there was a glimmer of hope that he might start his fourth campaign as the WR2 opposite Justin Jefferson.
But Minnesota (not surprisingly) drafted their No. 2 of the future, Jordan Addison. The incoming rookie has a higher floor and ceiling than Osborn and should remain firmly in front of him all season.
With his contract expiring after this season, Osborn probably will play elsewhere next year. For now, he’s playing for a significant long-term contract — or at least significant enough for a No. 3 wide receiver with No. 2 upside.
Because yes, Osborn’s been fundamentally sound these past two years, dropping only four passes on 172 targets. More than half of his receptions have gone for first downs. And a whopping 46% of his receiving yards last year came after the catch.
When the Vikings added T.J. Hockenson last season in Week 8, Osborn’s production briefly tanked. In those first six contests, he collected only 11 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. Nevertheless, he eventually found his groove in the newly beefed-up receiving corps and finished strong: a 30-388-3 receiving line in his final five outings.
This is Osborn in a nutshell. He can step up when needed, but he can also fade into the background as the No. 5 option. For deep-league fantasy managers, Osborn might be an intriguing bye-week dart throw, or he could become a weekly fringe starter if Jefferson, Addison, or Hockenson gets hurt.
Regardless, Osborn’s still the same unpredictable asset. He might earn 13 fantasy points one week and two the next. Nothing is guaranteed for a WR3 on teams with a target-friendly TE and a strong running game.
A 65-700-4 receiving line seems doable for Osborn, especially if Addison acclimates more gradually to the NFL. In other words, Osborn could flirt with career highs across the board as he heads to free agency. But in a realistic worst-case scenario — if Addison becomes a force out of the gate — Osborn could regress to around 45-500-2.
Should You Draft K.J. Osborn This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Osborn with an ADP of WR67. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him in the WR68 spot. It’s not a wide disparity, but the questions of whether Osborn’s draftable or merely deep-league bench fodder remain.
It might surprise some to know that Osborn was last year’s overall WR45, finishing one notch ahead of late bloomer Mack Hollins and three notches behind Donovan Peoples-Jones. All three played 17 games, so these are apples-to-apples comparisons, more or less.
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The key here is that a lot of quiet performances and a few big ones lifted Osborn into the top 50. He doesn’t need to do anymore — actually, he could even do a little less — to once again hit the top 50.
This suggests Osborn’s market value is too low. No one in Minnesota is challenging him for the No. 3 WR role. He should see 4+ targets per game, and five is possible. Osborn’s a great bet to finish in the top 55 and a good bet to at least replicate last year’s production.
