Keon Coleman’s Dynasty Rookie Profile | Buffalo Bills WR Fantasy Football Outlook

    After landing with a great offense devoid of a true WR1, what can dynasty managers expect from Keon Coleman during his rookie year with the Buffalo Bills?

    Entering the 2024 NFL Draft, Keon Coleman was one of the most polarizing WR prospects at the position due to his imposing physique and great contested catch ability paired with some separation concerns and lack of elite production. After landing in a great spot with the Buffalo Bills to play with Josh Allen, his dynasty profile has become even more polarizing entering upcoming rookie drafts.

    What can dynasty fantasy football managers expect from Coleman in his rookie year in the NFL?

    Should You Draft Keon Coleman in Dynasty Fantasy Football?

    A great landing spot fueling an exciting opportunity to see a healthy target share to begin an NFL career certainly does nothing but help a rookie prospect climb the board in dynasty formats.

    After the Bills purged over 241 targets, 152 receptions, 1,929 yards, and 15 TDs’ worth of receiving production off the roster this offseason with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Coleman steps into a receiver room where a true WR1 could potentially thrive for years to come catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

    After all, Coleman’s current competition for targets is mostly headlined by Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir. No disrespect to any of those players, but only one of them has seen 100+ targets in a season, which was Samuel back in 2019.

    Coleman has an impressive 6’3”, 213-pound frame that profiles as a potential option to operate outside as an X receiver, but the inconsistencies with his ability to beat press coverage, lack of footwork efficiency at the breakpoint, and absence of true vertical speed could create some separation issues at the next level operating on the outside.

    To be fair, Coleman hasn’t been exclusively playing football for all that long. He actually was a great basketball product and moonlighted as a basketball player at Michigan State playing under head coach Tom Izzo during his days with the Spartans. I say that to suggest he certainly could improve drastically if he stays in the lab and works to refine the nuances of his route running at the next level on a full-time basis.

    Coleman’s issues separating against man coverage aren’t necessarily the case when he is operating against zone coverage, which could make him a candidate to move to a big slot role. Unfortunately, his landing spot with the Bills doesn’t exactly project a huge role in that department due to Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel all having spent an extensive amount of time in that role during their careers.

    Even if Coleman never makes a noteworthy improvement as a separator, he still enters the league as a great contested catch option who can bully smaller DBs at the catch point, and he is a nice run-after-catch threat who could be very useful for Allen in the red zone.

    Expect Coleman to come off the board toward the end of the first round or early second round in your rookie draft.

    Who Is Coleman?

    Background

    Coleman is a product of Opelousas Catholic School and was a two-sport athlete in Louisiana during his prep days. Coleman was widely regarded as a four-star football prospect by most outlets and played his first two years of college football at Michigan State.

    To give you some context about how talented of a basketball player Coleman was during his days on the hardwood, he actually took the court under the great Izzo as a member of the Spartans basketball program back in 2021.

    College Production

    Coleman didn’t make much of an impact as a true freshman in East Lansing, Mich., catching just seven passes for 50 yards and one score during his first collegiate season.

    However, he did make a significant jump in his sophomore season at Michigan State, producing 58 receptions for 798 yards and seven scores before entering the transfer portal heading into his junior year.

    MORE: 2024 Dynasty ROOKIE Rankings

    Coleman became one of Jordan Travis‘ favorite targets in the passing game in 2023, catching 50 passes for 658 yards and 11 TDs for the Seminoles. Outside of his touchdown production, Coleman’s numbers last year weren’t among the elite at the position, but he certainly played a significant role in FSU’s passing game on their way to an undefeated regular season.

    Injury History

    Coleman was unavailable for the Seminoles’ matchup against the Pittsburgh Panthers in 2023, but the injury he was dealing with was not specified. In addition, he battled through a partial muscle tear around his hip flexor/groin during his 2022 campaign with the Spartans.

    Coleman’s Strengths and Weaknesses

    Strengths

    • Ideal size, strength, and speed to operate on the outside in the NFL.
    • Highlight reel waiting to happen in contested catch situations; some impressive wins on catches away from his frame while utilizing size to box out/shield away opposing defenders; very physical at the catch point.
    • Strong, reliable hands.
    • Very willing and physical presence in the run-blocking game; can impose his will on smaller corners and straight-up manhandled defenders on numerous blocking reps.
    • Flashed the ability to break tackles both after the catch and on occasional punt-return reps with power and surprising wiggle for a guy his size, suggesting he could create yards after the catch at the NFL level; good, natural feel as a ball carrier.
    • Can power through smaller corners who try to press him at the line of scrimmage (LOS) and the top of his route; did showcase both rips and swim moves as a part of his release package.
    • Exceptional body control in ball-tracking situations for a player of his size.
    • His role expanded to the slot during his days at FSU after primarily operating outside at Michigan State.
    • Can win with speed on vertical and deep in-breaking routes; has functional deep speed that defenders have to respect.

    Weaknesses

    • Route-running refinement really needs work at the next level; has a bad tendency to get out of his drive phase too quickly and stand straight up before making cuts; doesn’t consistently burst out of cuts; footwork can get sloppy in and out of breaks, oftentimes taking extra steps to gear down.
    • Creating separation was definitely a consistent issue at the collegiate level; some concerns with hip fluidity and very little deception in routes on tape compounded his lack of suddenness to create separation consistently.
    • Acceleration to top speed and agility/change of direction look average among peers.
    • Lack of twitch and foot quickness could create some issues separating at the LOS against press coverage at the next level.
    • His contested catch rate dropped significantly from 2022 to 2023.

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