Dalton Kincaid’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid proved he belongs in the NFL with a productive rookie year -- where does his dynasty value stand going into 2024?

Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid had high highs and low lows as a rookie. He flashed his immense talent, but couldn’t fully vanquish fellow TE Dawson Knox. How should fantasy football managers value Kincaid in dynasty heading into the 2024 offseason?

Dalton Kincaid’s Dynasty Outlook

It’s truly astounding how good incoming rookies are in the modern NFL. Previously, rookies were seen as projects, often taking a couple of years to fully come into their own. This was especially true at the tight end position. Now, these young kids are ready to rock almost immediately.

The 2023 rookie wide receiver class may end up being one of the best of all time. The 2023 rookie tight end class may end up being the best of all time. Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta is currently leading the group, but one player doesn’t make an entire class great. Kincaid is just as important.

LaPorta is perhaps the only reason we’re not talking more about how good Kincaid was as a rookie. By comparison, he wasn’t even close. But if we compare Kincaid to your typical rookie tight end, his rookie season was incredibly promising.

Kincaid caught 73 passes for 673 yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game, good for a TE13 finish, just outside the ranks of the TE1s.

The thing about Kincaid is you can’t really look at his season as a whole to get a clear picture of his performance. Although he had an immediate role in Week 1, playing 80% of the snaps right out of the gate, Kincaid didn’t start to shine until Knox went down.

Kincaid played 11 games alongside Knox, and in those games, he averaged 7.4 fantasy points per game. In five games without Knox, Kincaid averaged a whopping 14.2 fantasy points per game. For context, Kincaid without Knox was just as good as LaPorta.

The biggest criticism of Kincaid is how easily Knox was able to return and cut into his value. Kincaid broke out after Knox went on injured reserve. When Knox returned, we would’ve preferred him to be purely a backup. Instead, Knox severely impacted Kincaid’s productivity.

At the same time, Kincaid was able to persevere. He may have posted three straight duds after Knox returned, but Kincaid closed the season out strong. He also had respectable games in both playoff matchups.

Importantly, Kincaid was just a rookie tight end. Even though he performed way above expectations, there’s still a ton of room for growth. Going forward, he should see his 17.7% target share increase, as well as an increase on his 6.0 aDOT (average depth of target), which was 28th in the league.

Kincaid’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Kincaid land in the dynasty TE landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Kincaid lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

Jason Katz’s Top 24 Dynasty TE Rankings

1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) Mark Andrews | BAL
4) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
6) Travis Kelce | KC
7) George Kittle | SF
8) David Njoku | CLE
9) Evan Engram | JAX
10) Jake Ferguson | DAL
11) Dallas Goedert | PHI
12) Kyle Pitts | ATL
13) Cole Kmet | CHI
14) Pat Freiermuth | PIT
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL
16) Michael Mayer | LV
17) Tucker Kraft | GB
18) Dalton Schultz | HOU
19) Luke Musgrave | GB
20) Darren Waller | NYG
21) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN
22) Cade Otton | TB
23) Hunter Henry | NE
24) Juwan Johnson | NO

Should You Trade Kincaid in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Kincaid? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!

Kincaid is 24 years old and tied to Josh Allen for the foreseeable future. He’s a clear top-five dynasty asset at the position. The rookie TE benefited from being more of a necessary target last season, but let’s not pretend like he didn’t earn his usage. If Kincaid wasn’t good, the Bills certainly wouldn’t have featured him as heavily as they did.

The Bills are undoubtedly going to address the wide receiver position this offseason, as Gabe Davis is set to hit free agency and will likely be with a new team in just a couple of weeks.

It sounds as though Stefon Diggs will remain with the team, but stranger things have happened than the Bills moving on — most notably things like A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown getting traded on draft day in recent years. If the Bills go into this season with Diggs as their WR1, that’s probably good news for Kincaid.

MORE: Dynasty Consensus Rankings

Regardless of what the Bills do at wide receiver, Kincaid will remain firmly inside the top-five dynasty tight ends. If the Bills don’t make any significant additions, then Kincaid may very well be a top-five tight end as soon as 2024.

Dynasty managers with Kincaid on their roster should be very excited for the future. Given how difficult it’s been to find a consistent and reliable tight end in fantasy for the better part of the past decade, if you have Kincaid, I wouldn’t move him unless you’re getting another young and talented tight end in return.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast!

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

Join the Conversation!

Related Articles