Curtis Samuel’s dynasty fantasy football value has yet to take off as many managers had hoped after leaving the Carolina Panthers.
Could a change of address be what is needed to kickstart his statistical growth? Samuel figures to have plenty of opportunities with the Buffalo Bills sans Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis — should we be expecting a monster step forward?
Curtis Samuel’s Dynasty Outlook
Samuel came into the NFL as a volume-based receiver out of Ohio State back in 2017 as a second-round pick (40th overall), and his professional projection was to fill a similar role. After taking time to adjust, he averaged the ninth-most slot receiving yards per game, and while the fantasy football ceiling wasn’t too high, he seemed to have found a niche that was suitable for fantasy purposes.
Samuel’s role changed a bit as his career with the Panthers wore on, and after signing with the Washington Commanders in 2021, his hybrid skill set was again leveraged to keep defenses off balance.
In 2022, Samuel was being used as a low-rent version of Deebo Samuel, with 22.2% of his scrimmage yards and 37.3% of his touches coming via rush attempts. It was clear that he wasn’t going to be much of a game-breaker in the passing game, but the potential of a unique role caught our eye heading into 2023. Scratch that.
Last season, Blaine Gabbert and Derek Carr were among the 175 players who had more rushing yards than Samuel. With just one career season of 100 targets or 700 receiving yards, it’s difficult to have much confidence in terms of Samuel’s fantasy stock as a receiver, and the Commanders showed no real interest in using him as a utility weapon.
As he gears up for his age-28 season, Samuel is taking on another challenge. His 10.7 career average for yards per catch is underwhelming, and with a lack of proof when it comes to his ability to consistently earn targets, he needs to fit like a glove into the role the Bills assign him if he’s going to find success that matters for fantasy managers.
Samuel’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Samuel land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Samuel lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Kyle Soppe’s Top WR Rankings
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) Stefon Diggs | HOU
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Zay Flowers | BAL
23) Drake London | ATL
24) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
25) Davante Adams | LV
26) Mike Evans | TB
27) Tank Dell | HOU
28) Jayden Reed | GB
29) Deebo Samuel | SF
30) Calvin Ridley | TEN
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | CHI
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | JAX
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | CLE
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | CAR
45) Khalil Shakir | BUF
46) Joshua Palmer | LAC
47) Jahan Dotson | WAS
48) Courtland Sutton | DEN
49) Jakobi Meyers | LV
50) Treylon Burks | TEN
51) Christian Watson | GB
52) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
53) Marquise Brown | KC
54) Mike Williams | NYJ
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU
61) Tutu Atwell | LAR
62) Michael Thomas | FA
63) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
64) Kendrick Bourne | NE
65) Adam Thielen | CAR
66) Cedric Tillman | CLE
67) Rashid Shaheed | NO
68) Brandin Cooks | DAL
69) Trey Palmer | TB
70) Darius Slayton | NYG
Should You Trade Samuel in Dynasty?
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Staying in Washington would have given me more confidence in projecting Samuel. However, the uncertainty that comes with a new situation may give him a look at potential he otherwise didn’t have.
There have been 373 instances in which a WR scored over 21.1 half-PPR points in a game since Samuel joined Washington, and he has accounted for exactly zero of them. Does that change in Buffalo with a solidified franchise quarterback responsible for feeding him the ball?
It could, but don’t lose track of Khalil Shakir, a player with a similar skill set who impressed in this system in 2023. I’m entering this season with the expectation for them to split the slot role, something that caps the upside of both. But with role competition like that, there is growth potential.
CONTINUE READING: Dynasty Consensus Rankings
If I’m throwing a dart at the back end of my roster, the player is going to have youth on his side or big-play potential. Samuel has neither entering 2024 and is a long shot to make a difference in anything but the very deepest of leagues.
