Stefon Diggs’ Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Dynasty managers were up in arms about Stefon Diggs' end to his 2023 season. Is it time to panic or invest in the veteran at a discount?

The dynasty discussion surrounding Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs is as interesting as any player on the board, and it may not be close. On one hand, Diggs posted a 107-catch, 1,183-yard, eight-touchdown season in 2023 that resulted in a WR13 finish (half-PPR points per game).

On the other hand, he was a top-45 receiver just once in his final seven games of the fantasy season (Weeks 10-17) and didn’t score in December. Forget scoring — Diggs didn’t even have a 25-yard catch over that stretch!

So now what? The 30-year-old receiver was a WR1 lock entering the 2023 season, and he only increased his value through the first half of the season before a two-month slog to the finish line. What should dynasty fantasy football managers be doing with Buffalo’s WR1?

Stefon Diggs’ Dynasty Outlook

The situation Diggs finds himself in is fantasy-friendly, that much we know. He has a quarterback in Josh Allen nearing his physical prime (turns 28 in May) and has cleared 4,200 yards through the air every season that Diggs has been in town.

The two have established a strong connection ever since they joined forces, being one of the top-producing tandems during those four seasons.

The WR2 who has played alongside him, Gabe Davis, isn’t much of a target threat (yet to reach 95 in a season), and he threatens defenses deep down the field (16.7 yards per catch for his career).

Davis did take to social media shortly after the Super Bowl to highlight his lack of involvement in the passing game in a post that was essentially a goodbye to the city of Buffalo, so we’ll see where the WR2 role lands. It’s unlikely to be a player who demands high levels of involvement.

The Bills were again a top-10 offense in terms of pass rate over expectation, and they have a few young pieces in place (RB James Cook and TE Dalton Kincaid) that figure to keep this unit humming for years to come. WR Khalil Shakir showed up down the stretch as well and could shift into that Davis target share this coming season.

But — there’s always a but.

Father Time is looming, and the second half of the season indicated that Diggs may be closer to nearing the end than dynasty managers should be comfortable with.

In basketball, age is shown in the reliance on the jump shot instead of getting to the rim — with declining athleticism, older players look to evolve and play to their new strengths.

In football, “jump shots” are often short/slot routes, as receivers lose the ability to separate and/or elevate, thus making the downfield plays more difficult.

Percentage of points scored via deep pass

  • 2023: 30%
  • 2022: 41.8%

On the whole, that’s a red flag. But when you segment the data, that red flag turns into a full-blown panic.

Percentage of points scored via deep pass 2023

  • Weeks 1-9: 36.1%
  • Weeks 10-17: 10%

The worst part? There are no available excuses. I tried to find them, but there simply weren’t any. I wondered if this was an Allen thing or if Diggs’ route tree had been adjusted based on specific matchups — either of which would allow fantasy managers to write off that dip as something of an outlier.

MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart 

In the second half of the fantasy season, while Diggs’ deep production tanked, Allen’s aDOT (average depth of target) was up 6.9% from the first half of the season. During that same span, his go-route percentage rose from 13.8% to 15.7%.

In short, he was continuing to run downfield, and Allen was continuing to test defenses deep, but those passes simply weren’t going Diggs’ way. Did he lose a step?

Percentage of points scored from the slot

  • 2023: 25.8%
  • 2022: 23.5%
  • 2021: 17.8%

In Week 11, Joe Brady took over Buffalo’s offense as the offensive coordinator, linking him to most of this downward trending data. When asked about the star wide receiver’s production, Brady didn’t exactly put fantasy managers at ease:

“Stef Diggs does so much even when he doesn’t have the ball…he’s opening up windows for [WR] Khalil Shakir and [RB] James Cook…all he cares about is winning football games.”

The annual box score may look similar to years past, but all signs are pointing in the wrong direction heading into this offseason.

Diggs’ Dynasty Ranking

Where does Diggs land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Diggs lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) Cooper Kupp | LAR
14) DJ Moore | CHI
15) Nico Collins | HOU
16) DeVonta Smith | PHI
17) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
18) Stefon Diggs | BUF
19) DK Metcalf | SEA
20) Rashee Rice | KC

Should You Trade Diggs in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Diggs? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!

The idea of trading for (or away) Diggs completely hinges on the perceived value of him in your league. If there’s a manager out there who still thinks of him as a top-10 WR for the next few years, you look to leverage that.

I don’t doubt that Diggs will have his moments in 2024 and beyond, but the best case for the next season or two will be what we saw this season –- flashes of strong production, as opposed to a consistent difference-maker.

That said, if you play in a sharp league, and the other manager feels burned by how Diggs finished this past season, there could be a buying point.

KEEP READING: Should You Move Stefon Diggs, James Cook, and Dalton Kincaid in Dynasty?

As you can see from my ranking, I’m not fully out of the Diggs business. He’s still a proven receiver in a productive offense that underwent a scheme change mid-season. The age curve is obviously a concern, but who’s to say that with an offseason to fully digest Brady’s system, Diggs can’t age with grace?

At the right price, I’m willing to buy that hope, but these are scary times ahead for those with Diggs rostered and nowhere to turn.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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