For the first time since 2014, the Kansas City Chiefs might miss the NFL playoffs. Sitting with a 6-7 record going into Week 15, this year marks their most losses in a single season since the aforementioned 2014 campaign.
Should the Chiefs miss out on the postseason, it would be the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ nine-year NFL career that his team didn’t appear. It would also guarantee that they wouldn’t appear in the AFC Championship Game, which would be the first time since the 2018 season that they failed to do so.
Is it too late for the Chiefs to pull together and make the postseason? What do they need to do in order to sneak into a Wild Card spot?
What are the Kansas City Chiefs’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?
UPDATE: After a difficult 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. Despite the loss, Chiefs fans have all their eyes on the health of Patrick Mahomes as the QB left the game with an apparent leg injury.
As a result of their 6-7 record, the Chiefs’ chances of making it to the 2025 NFL postseason are pretty slim. PFSN’s Playoff Predictor gives Kansas City a 5.4% chance to make the playoffs going into Week 15.
It’s been a disappointing year for the Chiefs, even though their on-field performance has been better than their record suggests. Their +63 point differential ranks sixth in the AFC and is better than six of the current projected 14 NFL playoff teams.
All told, they’ve been effective on both sides of the ball; they rank eighth in PFSN’s Offense Impact grading, and they also rank tenth in Defense Impact grading. The only other two teams with top-ten grades in both categories are the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, both of which are projected as strong Super Bowl contenders and near-locks for playoff spots at this stage.
The Chiefs have won in blowouts for most of their wins, while most of their losses have been in tight battles against high-caliber teams. In the six games they’ve won, they’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 98 points, averaging to a victory deficit of over 16 points per game.
It’s those tight losses that have come back to haunt Kansas City, though. They’re 2-7 against teams that have records at .500 or above going into Week 15. Of those six losses, all but one have come by one score. While it speaks to the difficulty of their schedule and competing with the NFL’s best, it also speaks to their inability to finish.
At this juncture, the Chiefs slide in as the No. 10 team in the AFC. Ahead of them in the Wild Card race are the three teams who would make the playoffs if the season ended today: the 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers, the 9-4 Buffalo Bills, and the 8-5 Houston Texans. The Indianapolis Colts are also higher than the Chiefs at 8-5, while the 6-7 Baltimore Ravens have the tiebreaker over Kansas City due to a superior in-conference record.
Their main competition is the Texans, who are two games ahead of them for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. They have two easier matchups in the Cardinals and the Raiders, but their games against the Chargers and Colts aren’t guaranteed wins. However, even if the Chiefs win out and the Texans drop two of those aforementioned games, Houston would still have the higher seeding because they beat Kansas City in Week 14.
Chiefs Remaining 2025 Schedule
- Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (55.3% chance to win)
- Week 16: @ Tennessee Titans (68.9%)
- Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos (44.7%)
- Week 18: @ Las Vegas Raiders (69.8%)
Luckily for the Chiefs, they’re tied for having the ninth-easiest schedule in the NFL for the remainder of the 2025 season. Their two matchups against the Titans and Raiders feel like realistic wins, while their tougher matchups against the Chargers and Broncos are helped significantly by both games being played in Kansas City.
As things stand, the Chiefs are two games out of a Wild Card spot in the AFC. They trail the likes of the Texans, Bills, and Chargers for the conference’s three Wild Card spots. They’re also five games out of first place in the AFC West behind the Broncos. Going into Week 15 with just four more games left in the regular season, the possibility of winning the division this year no longer exists.
Kansas City plays the Chargers in Week 15. If they end up victorious, their playoff chances would increase from 5.4% to 9.7%. Should they lose, their playoff chances would drop to 0.1%.
Both statistically and historically speaking, the Chiefs would need to win out in order to make it to the playoffs. Since the start of the 17-game season in 2021, 47 of the 48 teams (97.9%) that finished with double-digit wins have made it to the playoffs.
Likewise, there’s a chance the Chiefs end up eliminated from the playoffs entirely in Week 15. Here’s the entire sequence that would need to happen for that scenario to take place, along with the chances that PFSN’s Playoff Predictor gives for each result.
- Chiefs lose to Chargers (44.7%)
- Bills defeat Patriots (50.5%)
- Jaguars defeat Jets (72.7%)
- Texans defeat Cardinals (71.8%)
Given those percentages, the probability of all four of those results taking place in Week 15 sits at just under 11.8%. It’s not impossible, but it’s not incredibly likely due to the multitude of events that would need to take place.
Looking at the Chiefs’ potential tiebreakers should they cut the two-game deficit they have from tying with a current AFC Wild Card team, things don’t bode too well for them. As of this writing, Kansas City is 3-5 in conference play. Of the five Wild Card contenders ahead of them in the rice, four of them have records above .500 within the AFC.
