As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Buffalo Bills RB James Cook’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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James Cook’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
As the third running back selected in last year’s NFL Draft, Cook had massive expectations, despite the strong possibility of a limited role. Devin Singletary had proven that he deserved the 1A job, Josh Allen surely would run the ball another 100+ times, and the Bills’ near-elite aerial attack would handle most of the rest.
To do remotely anything worthwhile in fantasy, Cook needed to shine. And so he did.
Despite earning only 110 regular-season touches, he finished as the overall RB44. The only running back with more fantasy points on fewer touches was Breece Hall.
In other words, Cook made the most of his opportunities. And while Damien Harris has replaced Singletary in the backfield, Cook’s role realistically will expand. His fantasy production will hinge, naturally, on how much it grows, as well as how it grows.
For example, Harris is an experienced bell cow with strong goal-line chops. He’s also only 26 years old and doesn’t have the mileage of many other multi-year starters his age. An astounding 14 of his last 17 touchdowns have come inside the opposing 8-yard line, while 12 of 17 have come inside the five.
Cook earned only five touches inside the opposing 10-yard line last year and only one inside the five (which he converted for a score). There’s massive upside for the young back if he can garner more looks near the end zone.
However, he has a smaller frame than his famed brother, Dalvin, who’s enjoyed a massive goal-line presence for years. The reality is Cook’s usage up close might not increase at all, which would put more downward pressure on a ceiling that’s already capped by Harris’ presence, as well as Allen’s dual-threat expertise.
I’m not so concerned about the 33-year-old Latavius Murray. We should expect this to be a two-man backfield, with Cook’s touches probably hitting 150-175 or about 9-10 per game.
And if his work in the passing game increases, then 600+ rushing yards and 300+ receiving yards would be realistic. That should be enough to keep him in weekly streamer conversations, at minimum.
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Still, keep an eye on that front. Cook dropped three of his 32 targets last season while engineering an anemic (for RBs) 65.6% catch rate. At the same time, he turned a corner in December, showing marked improvement. However, in two playoff games, he didn’t get a single look from Allen.
In other words, we can’t point to significant momentum heading into the offseason. The hope (if you draft Cook) is that the arrival of the mostly pass-averse Harris should put more on Cook’s plate through the air.
In the end, his positioning as a weekly fantasy vs. versus a weekly fantasy flier might come down to whether Buffalo commits to him as a 40+ reception RB.
Should You Draft James Cook This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Cook with an ADP of RB28. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at RB31. His ADP is a somewhat bullish projection for a guy who’s sharing the backfield with an established RB leader. It also suggests the market isn’t sold on Harris, whose injury-plagued 2022 campaign might or might not signal a coming decline.
For context, fellow rookie Rachaad White was the RB36 last season with a 129-481-1 rushing line and a 50-290-2 receiving line. As highlighted above, Cook certainly can one-up most of those numbers in 2023. So yes, a top 28-32 season is quite doable.
Yet, if you’re drafting Cook before his ADP, you’re not necessarily getting a big enough ceiling to warrant the reach. Sure, if Harris misses major time with an injury, the team might lean heavily on Cook, turning him instantly into a top-18 fantasy back.
Is he a solid get? Absolutely, and he’s actually a must-get if you plan to pair him with Harris, giving yourself a great hedge if one gets hurt.
However, Cook’s most realistic ceiling probably is in the top 24-26 range. He’ll probably need to work harder than most 150+ touch RBs to get his touchdowns. And consistent early-down work is far from guaranteed. He’s an ascending talent, and he’s also more of a streamer than an automatic starter heading into Year 2.
