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Jalen Reagor’s fantasy outlook and projection for 2021

Jalen Reagor is well-positioned to bounce back in 2021, but what is his fantasy football outlook, and should you draft him at his ADP?

Jalen Reagor did not have the rookie season many anticipated. It was disappointing for fantasy football managers and the Philadelphia Eagles, considering they selected the former TCU receiver ahead of LSU’s Justin Jefferson in the 2020 NFL Draft. Jefferson finished as a WR2 or better in 50% of his games in PPR formats last season. In 2021, Philadelphia again went WR in Round 1 of the NFL Draft by taking DeVonta Smith at No. 10 overall. What impact will Smith have on Reagor this season? Looking at his outlook, can Reagor be fantasy-relevant in 2021, and is he worth selecting at his current ADP?

Jalen Reagor’s fantasy outlook for 2021

The addition of DeVonta Smith isn’t a bad thing for Reagor. Not every receiver is cut out to be an alpha, and in my opinion, Smith is a better fit in that role. His skill set translates well to the Eagles’ offense. After all, Smith holds the SEC and Crimson Tide records for career receiving yards (3,965) and touchdowns (46). He can terrorize defenses anywhere on the field.

Nevertheless, new Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen will provide Reagor a clean slate. He’ll also have a new starting quarterback in Jalen Hurts. The Eagles’ offensive scheme will not limit Reagor to just the outside as the Z receiver. It has been rumored that Philadelphia’s offense will emphasize the screen game and set up the passing game via play-action. Reagor also mentioned publicly that he’ll play in the slot and outside in 2021.

Here’s the interesting part about that.

Reagor played a high percentage of his offensive snaps lined up outside but finished the season with a 57% catch rate. Additionally, he struggled with drops during his time at Baylor. However, he could increase his catch rate in 2021 with more slot targets.

Last season, Reagor saw just 20.3% of his targets from the slot. He caught 7 of 11 slot targets for only 33 receiving yards. Still, I envision Reagor and the other receiving weapons in the Eagles’ offense being moved around the formation this coming season.

Smith, Reagor, and tight end Dallas Goedert are expected to dominate the target share in 2021. The Eagles no longer have veteran wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson on the roster. Thus, Reagor could finish with the second-most targets behind Smith.

Fantasy projection

Reagor caught just 31 passes for 396 yards and a touchdown during his rookie season. As a result, he had only one game with 9 or more PPR points in 2020. Furthermore, Reagor averaged just 5 targets per game in his 11 games.

Reagor dealt with injuries, a global pandemic, and a dysfunctional Eagles’ offense. He’ll be motivated to prove his first-round selection in 2020 wasn’t a mistake. For fantasy, Reagor will provide you with a WR4 floor and a WR3 ceiling in 2021. He projects for around 95 targets, 63 receptions, 830 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns.

Reagor’s ADP in fantasy drafts

Reagor is readily available in the 15th or 16th rounds of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicer, where his ADP is 191.3. He’s drafted a bit earlier in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Reagor has an ADP of 142.07. His ADP in half-PPR formats on Sleeper is 172.4

Reagor’s ADP is unlikely to fluctuate much this summer. It would take a serious injury to Smith for it to change dramatically.

Should you draft Reagor at this ADP in 2021?

Reagor should be drafted at his ADP in 2021. He is well-positioned to exceed his draft position in what many expect to be an improved Eagles’ offense. Few players at this stage of a fantasy draft will see the target share that Reagor will be provided. If you miss out on him, you should consider selecting Nelson Agholor in this range.

Agholor had the best statistical season of his career in 2020. He caught 48 of 82 targets for 896 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. He also accumulated 1,259 receiving air yards. Air yards indicate how far a pass travels in the air before it’s caught.

Agholor can threaten defenses vertically, as he scored 6 of his touchdowns on his 11 deep targets last year. The only receiver with more touchdowns on such targets was Tyreek Hill. Therefore,  I have Agholor projected to see a similar target volume to Reagor.

Eric Moody is a Senior Fantasy Analyst for Pro Football Network and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). He is also the co-host of the In The Mood for Fantasy Football podcast. You can read more of his work here and follow Eric on Twitter @EricNMoody.

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