Let’s get this out of the way: No, the NFL is not scripted. However, during almost every game, fans on social media often raise concerns about the league being rigged.
The most recent wave of theories came after a graphic from September resurfaced because it showed Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold and New England Patriots QB Drake Maye standing together at the front of a crowd of players staring at the Lombardi Trophy. Months later, those two quarterbacks met in the championship game. The odds of guessing this matchup correctly before the season? Less than half a percent.
The internet exploded. NFL spokesperson Brian McCarthy responded with a single word on social media: “No.” The Seahawks went on to dominate the Patriots 29-13, but the conspiracy theories didn’t stop.
The NFL Has Leaned Into the ‘Rigged’ Narrative
Many fans felt that this coincidence proved too perfect to ignore. However, there’s no evidence of game-fixing or predetermined outcomes, but the perception that it might be has become one of the NFL’s most persistent narratives.
The NFL made a calculated gamble in 2023 when it launched a star-studded ad campaign that openly mocked allegations of rigging. Comedian Keegan-Michael Key sat at a table with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Kirk Cousins among others as they workshopped a “script” for the upcoming season.
The campaign, titled “You Can’t Make This Stuff Up,” aired during primetime and ran throughout the entire season with 16 pieces of content timed to major moments.
The strategy was bold and while the ads were funny, the campaign may have backfired in ways the marketing department couldn’t have predicted. By acknowledging the conspiracy theory, the NFL validated it in the minds of millions who were only half-joking before.
Believe it or not, a 2024 survey found that nearly half of teens (48%) believe the NFL playoffs are rigged.
Why the Theories Persist Despite the Evidence
ESPN ran the numbers on every penalty called in regular-season and postseason games from 2001 to 2024. The data doesn’t support claims of rigging. Teams that commit more penalties don’t lose more often. In the fourth quarter and overtime, teams that commit major penalties like defensive pass interference actually tend to win more frequently than when they don’t commit those penalties.
Dean Blandino, the NFL’s former vice president of officiating, said conspiracy theories misunderstand the complexity involved. Coordinating outcomes across 17 officiating crews and 138 officials would require an organizational structure that doesn’t exist. Penalties aren’t even a major factor in determining wins and losses, according to the league’s own analysis. Turnovers matter more.
But statistics don’t matter when fans have already decided what they believe. Scott Green, executive director of the NFL Referees Association, called the conspiracy theories “insulting and preposterous.” Kelce once asked reporters why they keep “leaning into this whole ref thing.” Neither statement moved the needle. The controversy generates too much engagement to die.
Moreover, some controversial decisions by referees during games also go viral on social-media platforms, which further fuel rigging claims against the league. This was the case with the Chiefs, as many fans pointed to the team’s success after Kelce and Taylor Swift started dating as “evidence” that the league is rigged.
The Seahawks’ Super Bowl 60 victory did nothing to quiet the noise. If anything, the fact that Darnold and Maye appeared together in that September graphic only fueled the conspiracy theories. The NFL can deny it all it wants, but some fans won’t be persuaded.
At the end of the day, this is simply a narrative that has no actual evidence. It is typically something fans say when they don’t like a certain call or transaction that hurts their favorite team. The NFL has extremely passionate fans, and this is bound to happen when people are very invested in the on-field product.
However, this is a multi-billion-dollar business with way too much money to lose if it were revealed that the league is actually rigged.
