Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is coming off a second consecutive disappointing season after the Seminoles finished 5-7 in 2025, missing bowl eligibility once again. Now entering his seventh season in Tallahassee, Norvell finds himself in one of the hottest seats in college football, and according to one insider, there are few signs that things are about to improve.
Ralph Russo Believes Mike Norvell’s Outlook at Florida State Is Bleak
After taking over the program in 2020, Norvell enjoyed the high point of his tenure in 2023. Florida State went a perfect 13-0 through the regular season and ACC Championship Game, while Norvell was named ACC Coach of the Year and received the prestigious Paul “Bear” Bryant Award.
However, 2024 quickly turned into a nightmare. The Seminoles collapsed to a 2-10 record, including a 1-7 mark in ACC play, and rarely looked competitive.
There was optimism entering the 2025 season that Norvell could steer the program back on course, but those hopes faded quickly. After opening the year 3-1, Florida State dropped four straight conference games and ultimately finished 5-7, winning just two ACC contests.
Back-to-back losing seasons have intensified questions about Norvell’s future, and following a turbulent offseason, college football insider Ralph Russo believes there is little evidence that Florida State is headed in the right direction, arguing that the only reason the Seminoles haven’t made a coaching change is the enormous buyout in Norvell’s contract.
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“Mike Norvell, it just doesn’t look great at Florida State,” Russo said on The Audible. “None of the signs are good… They still owe him a lot of money. So I think that they were trying to save some money last year by not pulling the plug on him.”
Norvell signed an eight-year, $80 million extension after leading Florida State to the ACC championship. Under the terms of the deal, the university would owe him 85 percent of the remaining value of his contract if he were fired before it expires in 2031. Even if he’s fired on December 31, the buyout would still be $51 million, making a coaching change an expensive proposition.
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Despite that financial commitment, Russo isn’t convinced a turnaround is coming.
“There is also, again, the vibes aren’t great,” he added. “The roster construction doesn’t look like, ‘Man, they just sunk $30 million in and look at all these great guys that they got.’ Nothing about the situation at Florida State looks like Mike Norvell is ready to turn it around… But boy, if we’re talking hot seats and storylines heading into the 2026 season, Mike Norvell sort of leads off that group.”
Despite their inconsistent form last season, with talented quarterback Thomas Castellanos under center and Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator, the Seminoles had one of the most potent offenses in the country, earning a PFN College Offense Impact score of 87.0.
However, both are now gone. Castellanos exhausted his eligibility and declared for the NFL Draft after the NCAA denied his waiver request for an additional season, while Malzahn unexpectedly retired in February, prompting Norvell to promote former wide receivers coach Tim Harris Jr. to offensive coordinator.
The Seminoles have since named former Auburn quarterback Ashton Daniels as their new starter. While Daniels brings valuable experience and has thrown 24 career touchdown passes, he has also been intercepted 22 times, leaving questions about whether he can stabilize the offense.
The outlook isn’t particularly encouraging. According to the PFN College Football Playoff Meter, Florida State is expected to win just 5.33 games on the back of a tough ACC schedule. If that projection proves accurate, Norvell’s buyout may not be enough to protect his job for another season.
But as Russo noted, “if he comes out punching and all of a sudden that thing clicks down there and he wins eight games,” the conversation surrounding Norvell could change dramatically.
