Patrick Mahomes has spent most of his career making “average” look like a word that belongs in somebody else’s scouting report. Colin Cowherd thinks the last two seasons have finally made it applicable.
During a segment on The Herd, Cowherd contrasted Mahomes’ explosive run from his second through seventh NFL seasons with what followed in 2024 and 2025. His point was not that Kansas City suddenly has a bad quarterback. It was that the surrounding offense, and Mahomes’ response to it, have stripped away much of the weekly dominance that once felt automatic.
Colin Cowherd Sees a Dramatic Split in Patrick Mahomes’ Numbers
“If you look at Mahomes Year 2-7, and then last two years, Year 8 and 9, I don’t think people understand how dramatic the splits are,” Cowherd said in the clip.
He pointed to passer rating, efficiency, and an increase in improvisation. Cowherd then floated two theories, asking whether Mahomes has become “less coachable” as his celebrity has grown or whether he is putting less time into film study.
Those were questions, not reported facts, and Cowherd offered no evidence that Mahomes’ preparation has declined. His broader statistical argument does have substance, though.
Mahomes’ passer rating has gone from 105.2 in his 2022 MVP season to 92.6 in 2023, 93.5 in 2024 and 89.6 in 2025. Last season, he completed 62.7% of his passes for 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions before a knee injury ended his year.
“Even the most dynamic, dominant quarterback over a 4 or 5 year period looks incredibly average. His numbers in the last 2 years have fallen off a cliff.”@colincowherd discusses Patrick Mahomes & the Chiefs offense recent struggles pic.twitter.com/i593TaXc61
— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) August 26, 2026
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PFN’s QB Impact Metrics are less severe than Cowherd’s “near the bottom” characterization. Mahomes finished 2025 with a 79.0 QB Impact grade, #11 among qualifying quarterbacks, still well short of the standard attached to a three-time Super Bowl MVP.
Chiefs’ Offensive Problems Made Patrick Mahomes Look Mortal
Cowherd’s sharpest point came later in the segment, when he shifted more of the blame away from Mahomes.
“He doesn’t trust the offensive line,” Cowherd said. “And the receivers don’t separate. And even the most dynamic, dominant quarterback over a four- or five-year period looks incredibly average.”
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Kansas City’s decline became impossible to hide in 2025. The Chiefs finished 6-11, missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and ranked 21st in scoring and 20th in total offense. Mahomes was sacked 34 times in 14 starts while an increasingly labored offense struggled to create the easy explosives that defined its peak.
The 2026 season now doubles as a test of Cowherd’s diagnosis. Mahomes is working back from the knee injury that ended his season, with Week 1 still the target, while Kansas City enters the year with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy atop the receiver depth chart and another reshuffled offensive line.
Cowherd’s argument is less that Mahomes forgot how to play quarterback than that even the league’s best improviser eventually runs out of magic when too much of the offense requires improvising in the first place.
