As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Las Vegas Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Hunter Renfrow’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
In 2020, Renfrow operated behind Nelson Agholor. A year later, he was the overall WR10 while reeling in 80.5% of his targets — one of the highest wideout catch rates in NFL history. That 2021 Raiders team finished 10-7 and came nine yards short of tying (or perhaps defeating) the Bengals in the closing seconds of their first-round playoff matchup.
Naturally, there were high hopes for the 26-year-old entering last season. Although the arrival of Davante Adams would dampen his ceiling, Renfrow surely would be a top-four offensive option in an ascending offense.
But things don’t always go as expected. Some guys outperform expectations. Others lag well behind. And few presumed must-draft fantasy WRs underwhelmed as much as Renfrow.
His overtime fumble in Week 2 resulted in a devastating loss to the Cardinals. He missed the next two games. In the following four, he amassed an anemic 11-112-0 receiving line. Another injury sidelined him for five more contests.
With Adams and the surprisingly effective journeyman Mack Hollins (and the often-injured Darren Waller) as the only receiver competition in a top-heavy corps, Renfrow had an opening to post top-35 numbers. His great hands (72% catch rate) remained on full display. He dropped only one pass, giving him only five across his last 255 targets. He’s a fundamentally sound receiver.
In other words, it wasn’t only about him. Despite Adams’ presence and dominance, the Raiders’ passing attack shockingly took a step back. Derek Carr had his worst season since his rookie campaign. Josh Jacobs played an outsized role (nearly 400 touches) to help mask Carr’s deficiencies. It wasn’t enough for Vegas.
And it certainly wasn’t enough for Renfrow, who caught only one TD pass thrown by Carr. And if not for Renfrow’s quick thinking and agility, it wouldn’t have even been a score.
With Jimmy Garoppolo now helming this passing attack, there are reasons to be more bullish about Renfrow. While his 2021 blowup seems unattainable, last year’s regression doesn’t accurately define Renfrow’s value to his team, as well as to fantasy managers.
Waller is gone, replaced by second-round rookie Michael Mayer and declining veteran Austin Hooper. Hollins has been replaced by Jakobi Meyers. And Jacobs almost certainly won’t come close to matching last year’s volume. History shows most running backs with his workload face significant regressions the following season.
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Third-round rookie WR Tre Tucker looms. But if he’s still a year away from breaking into this offense, then Renfrow once again has an opening as a top-four offensive option.
If healthy, Renfrow can hit 65-850-5 as some amalgam of Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. Most weeks, he could hit 8+ points. If he scores, his volume should be sufficient to make him a top-30 WR.
2021 is firmly in the rearview mirror. But so is 2022. Renfrow possesses the talent to remain a constant in this offense. While he won’t be expected to take over, he also won’t be expected to serve as a decoy.
Should You Draft Hunter Renfrow This Year?
FantasyData currently lists Renfrow with an ADP of WR67. FantasyPros’ composite of industry experts places him in the WR80 spot. On the one hand, the concerns are warranted.
Garoppolo isn’t a guy who can elevate three receivers per game. Adams is Adams. Meyers will get his looks. Jacobs will be the bell cow as long as his body holds up. And the rookie Mayer could become a fantasy starter by midseason if things break right.
So it’s understandable why the general market perceives Renfrow as draftable. His 2023 ceiling probably isn’t higher than the top 30-35, and that assumes 17 full games and several missed outings for Adams and/or Meyers.
However, his realistic floor is significantly better than WR80. Last year’s WR80 (Marquise Goodwin) netted a 27-387-4 receiving line. Last year’s WR60 (Greg Dortch) hit 52-467-2. That latter line appears to be closer to Renfrow’s true floor heading into 2023.
Consider this: Renfrow was last year’s WR67 in points per game, despite playing in one of the league’s most underperforming passing attacks. If he falls to No. 4 on the WR depth chart, then, of course, all bets are off. But if he remains a starter (as expected), then he’s a fantastic bet to outperform his ADP.
