Every season, there is one week where byes and injuries converge. We often call that week “Bye-pocalypse.” This is that week. As a result, fantasy football managers are finding themselves considering players in lineups they normally never would. Does that make guys like Gus Edwards and AJ Dillon startable in Week 7?
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Gus Edwards’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
The Ravens backfield has been quite the puzzle to solve ever since J.K. Dobbins went down with a torn Achilles. At first, it looked like Justice Hill would be the guy. Then, it was Gus Edwards. At a point, both were hurt, and the team had to use Melvin Gordon and Kenyan Drake.
Things seemed to have settled a bit, though. At the very least, we know this is a two-man backfield between Edwards and Hill. The problem is the lead back seems to change by the week.
Over the past three games, Edwards’ snap shares have been 69%, 43%, and 62% vs. 12%, 56%, and 38% for Hill. They’ve flip-flopped roles in three straight games.
Edwards is seeing more carries, but Hill has caught all seven of his targets over the past two weeks.
Edwards profiles more as the goal-line back, but it’s Hill who has the lone touchdown from short yardage over that span.
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All of this is to say it’s a guessing game between two uninspiring options. And this week, they get a Lions defense that is elite against the run.
The Lions allow the fewest PPG to running backs by a margin of 1.9 PPG. They are allowing 3.1 YPC and have surrendered just two rushing touchdowns all season to the position. Dan Campbell’s defense has also completely shut down running backs in the passing game. Just 8.6% of their total receiving yards allowed have gone to running backs.
AJ Dillon’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Aaron Jones hasn’t played a full game since Week 1. Historically, AJ Dillon has been quite productive when filling in for Jones. This year, that hasn’t been the case.
Dillon got the start in Weeks 2-3. He posted fantasy point totals of 7.3 and 3.3. Jones tried to return in Week 4 but barely played. Dillon out-snapped him but still recorded just 1.1 points.
Things did get better in Week 5, though. With Jones again missing, Dillon carried the ball 20 times for 76 yards and a touchdown. It was Dillon’s best game of the season.
Here’s the problem. Dillon is a complete nothing in the passing game. He has just three receptions on the season and hasn’t caught a pass since Week 2. If he doesn’t score, you’re gonna have a bad time.
Jones is still very clearly not 100 percent. There is a nonzero chance that playing football is no longer in the cards for the 29-year-old running back. This is right around the age when injuries tend to linger and become harder to recover from. Jones is experiencing that right now.
Even coming out of the bye, Jones still was unable to get in a single full practice. He’s listed as questionable, and head coach Matt LaFleur’s comments were not at all encouraging.
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Jones still may play this week, but there’s no guarantee he can handle his usual workload. That means we could see more of Dillon in a fantastic matchup against the worst run defense (and overall defense) in the NFL.
The Broncos are allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. They allow backs to run for 5.9 yards per carry and are surrendering 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game. If you’re forced to use Dillon, you couldn’t ask for a better spot.
Which of the RBs Should You Start?
This one couldn’t be closer in the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer. PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Dillon is the player to start, but just barely. His projected 8.7 points include 5.9 rushing yards, 1.8 receptions, and 13.5 receiving yards. That is literally 0.1 points higher than Edwards’ 8.6-point projection.
Coincidentally, I have Dillon exactly one spot ahead of Edwards in my personal rankings.
With all of the challenges facing fantasy managers this week, both can be started as a touchdown-or-bust RB2. But their ranks are in the RB3 range. I certainly wouldn’t feel great about either in my lineup. However, given the circumstances, you can certainly do worse.