The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Denver Broncos TE Greg Dulcich’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Dulcich build off an impressive showing as a rookie, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Greg Dulcich’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The 2022 season for the Broncos was an abject failure on virtually every level. Not only did we not get the AFC West we thought we were promised, but the Broncos finished in last place, despite the persistent belief that they were a quarterback away from being Super Bowl contenders. However, despite the injuries and lackluster play, there were a few bright spots, including 2022 rookie Dulcich.
Although a hamstring injury cost Dulcich the first five weeks of the season, it didn’t take him long to make up for lost time and make an impact on the field. His second career reception went for a 39-yard touchdown, and he quickly became a name fantasy managers were making a priority on the waiver wire.
It took just two games for Dulcich to record an 80% snap share, and in turn, he commanded a 17.2% target share as a rookie, which was 13th in the league. He was also used downfield more aggressively than most tight ends and finished the season with the third-highest average depth of target at 10.3 yards.
Between Weeks 6-16, when Dulcich was active, he was the TE10 overall while averaging 5.5 targets and 7.0 half-PPR game, catching 33 of his 55 targets for 411 yards and two touchdowns and finishing as a TE1 with double-digit fantasy points in four of his outings.
This is a far more realistic view of what Dulcich did rather than only looking at his season-long finish as the TE30 overall.
With Albert Okwuegbunam failing to live up to the potential breakout some felt that he could be, the tight end position in the Broncos’ offense will run squarely through Dulcich. However, he will have some extra competition from former Saints TE Adam Trautman, who was traded in free agency.
If Sean Payton does turn this team around as the offensive guru he is noted as being, Dulcich becomes a somewhat intriguing option. But Dulcich will likely struggle to reach the mid-TE1 range due to this roster’s projected volume and talent, with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Marvin Mims at receiver.
While still early, current projections have Dulcich sitting around 47 receptions on 72 targets for 580 yards and four touchdowns but with a clear path to outperform these early expectations.
Should You Draft Greg Dulcich This Year?
In most 12-team formats, Dulcich is likely outside the range of players you would feel comfortable with as your starting tight end. He is more of a mid-TE2, but luckily he is being drafted accordingly.
Based on early ADP reporting, Dulcich is coming off the board around the TE16 mark with an ADP of around 150, placing him in the 13th round. His ADP does not actually vary hugely site to site, so unless someone really reaches for him, you won’t see hi going much above that point in general.
I prefer to have one of the elite options, such as Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or even T.J. Hockenson. Ideally, I don’t want to wait any later than the TE8 to draft my starter, which would put me around Evan Engram, David Njoku, and even potentially Kyle Pitts, depending on how far he falls.
If you play in a 14-team or deeper league or have enough bench depth to roster an additional tight end, that’s where Dulcich likely makes the most sense. This way, you can watch his role develop and what the Broncos will look like in 2023 without risking your overall record on it.
I would put Dulcich on the list of other breakout candidates, such as Chigoziem Okonkwo, Gerald Everett, and Dalton Kincaid. If you’re looking for a late-round option, they all bring plenty of upside for minimal risk on draft day.