Gabe Davis Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Davis in Fantasy This Year?

    Gabe Davis is an ascending talent in an explosive offense, but what are his fantasy projections in 2023, and should you draft him at his ADP?

    As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Buffalo Bills Gabe Davis’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.

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    Gabe Davis’ 2023 Fantasy Projection

    Within the next two years, we’ll know if Davis is a top-10-caliber fantasy WR. In his third NFL campaign last year, he took a notable step forward as a relatively highly targeted, yardage-friendly, and TD-friendly receiver.

    At the same time, he netted the highest drop rate of his career (one per 10.3 targets). Six of Josh Allen’s 14 interceptions occurred when he threw to Davis. In fact, among the four Buffalo WRs and one TE who earned 20+ looks last season, targeting Davis produced the lowest QB rating:

    • Stefon Diggs: 120.3
    • Dawson Knox: 108.3
    • Khalil Shakir: 94.0
    • Isaiah McKenzie: 90.7
    • Gabe Davis: 80.8

    In fact, among all wideouts with more than 50 targets last season, only Corey Davis had a worse catch rate than Davis.

    Still, let’s keep in mind that this was his age-23 season. There’s plenty of untapped potential for a guy that young and that talented. Remember, he was merely a fourth-round selection in 2020, taken a few picks after RB Anthony McFarland Jr. and QB James Morgan. Yeah, exactly.

    Davis was also one of only three wideouts drafted between the middle of the third round and the end of the fourth, falling between Devin Duvernay and Antonio Gandy-Golden. Yeah, exactly.

    The excitement surrounding Davis stems partly from his NFL-caliber abilities, partly from his size, and partly (or largely) due to the fact that he’s the No. 2 WR in one of the NFL’s best offenses. And notably, the Bills didn’t rush out to snag another high-profile WR in free agency (Trent Sherfield was their big “get”) or even land a promising prospect in this year’s draft (they took 23-year-old Justin Shorter in the fifth).

    So this franchise appears committed to Davis in a prominent role, at least for one more season. If the Bills fall short of a title yet again, and with Diggs turning 30 in November, we might anticipate this team going all-in on another impact receiver. And sure, they nabbed rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. But he’s not likely to impact Davis one iota.

    Fantasy-wise, Davis remains a featured part of this electric offense. At the same time, he’ll need to take another step forward in his development to jump from a top-40 WR to a top-28 WR. Boom/bust managers have to love the risk and reward of a guy like Davis, who doesn’t require much fantasy draft capital, and who can deliver major stat lines any given week.

    The challenge is whether he’ll bring enough consistency to hit that “weekly-must-start” fantasy realm.

    Should You Draft Gabe Davis This Year?

    Underdog Fantasy currently lists Davis with an ADP of WR36. Our PFN Consensus Rankings also list him at WR36. This seems a bit conservative, as it suggests a regression from last year’s numbers. A 65-950-8 receiving line seems entirely doable. He should crack the top 30.

    As a result, he’s a great target for managers prepared to reach a round early. And if you draft Diggs, then Davis would be a fantastic hedge if Diggs gets hurt. Yes, WR hedges are a “thing” in fantasy. It’s not always clean or predictable, but a Diggs injury almost certainly would elevate Davis into the weekly top-20 tier.

    In a realistic worst-case scenario, you’re getting lukewarm value for Davis at his current ADP range. But those playing for ceilings need to lock him in at his bargain price.

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