The Geno Smith experiment lasted about six weeks. That’s how long it took for Raiders fans to go from cautious optimism to full-blown quarterback desperation, and the mock draft data captures the shift in real time.
From Hope to Horror: The September Pivot
When Las Vegas traded a third-round pick for Smith in March, the move was supposed to stabilize the most chaotic position in the organization. Raiders fans had watched Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Gardner Minshew, and Aidan O’Connell cycle through in consecutive seasons. Smith, a two-time Pro Bowler coming off three winning seasons in Seattle, represented something different: a proven veteran reuniting with Pete Carroll.
PFSN’s NFL Mock Draft Simulator data shows that Raiders users initially believed it. Quarterback demand, which sat near 37% in late July, plummeted through August and into September. By mid-September, it had dropped below 20% as fans watched Smith complete 67% of his passes in the early going. Offensive tackle spiked instead, peaking around 35% in early October as the offensive line struggled to protect anyone.
Then the wheels came off — Smith’s interceptions piled up. The Raiders lost. And lost again. By mid-October, quarterback demand began its climb back toward the top of the chart. It hasn’t stopped. As of late December, more than 50% of Raiders mock drafters are selecting a quarterback — the highest rate of any position by a wide margin.
The numbers explain why. Smith has thrown 17 interceptions this season, the most in the NFL. His 68.5 QB Impact score earns a D+ grade from PFSN, ranking him 34th among quarterbacks and 700th overall. The 5.80 net yards per attempt sits at 36th. The 208.3 passing yards per game rank 28th.
“There’s always things that are correctable, but I mean, you can’t get those things back,” Smith said earlier this season. “That’s just how life goes.”
Carroll has remained publicly loyal. “I continue to really believe in him,” he told reporters in November. “He has not backed off one step throughout the process… He’ll come through for us.”
He hasn’t. The Raiders are 2-14 and control the first overall pick heading into Week 18.
The Worst Offense in Football Wants a Reset
Smith’s struggles don’t exist in isolation. The Raiders rank 31st in PFSN’s Offensive Impact metric with a 57.6 score — an F grade that places them 821st overall since the year 2000. They’re averaging 4.5 yards per play (29th), 1.35 points per drive (31st), and converting just 35.7% of third-and-fourth-down attempts (28th). The offensive line has allowed an 11.1% sack rate, 30th in the league.
It’s the kind of comprehensive failure that makes quarterback evaluation difficult. Smith has operated behind a patchwork line, watched the team trade away Jakobi Meyers midseason, and seen rookie Ashton Jeanty neutralized by defensive schemes that don’t respect the passing game. Carroll acknowledged as much in December.
“We got all those picks that started out early in the season,” Carroll said. “It wasn’t all him at any time. There’s a lot of things that go into all that, but he’s been around long enough that he knows he’s going to carry the burden.”
Raiders fans have decided he should. The mock draft data shows a fanbase that briefly entertained the idea of building around Smith — the OT spike in September and October reflected that thinking — before abandoning it entirely. Now they want a reset at the position that matters most.
If Las Vegas clinches the first overall pick with a loss to Kansas City in Week 18, the options are tantalizing. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy after leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated regular season, completing 71.5% of his passes with elite deep ball placement and pro-ready processing ability.
PFSN’s NFL Draft Analyst Ian Cummings made the case for both Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore.
“Mendoza and Moore have flipped often on my board, but right now, Mendoza holds a slight lead as my QB1, with a blue-chip evaluation grade of 90.69, while Moore trails slightly behind, still with a blue-chip grade of 90.59.
The efficiency backs up both passers, too; Mendoza has the second-highest PFSN College QB Impact score in the nation with a figure of 93.2, while Moore comes in at a respectable 85.9.
Moore’s easy arm talent, two-phase distribution ability, and cool composure in clutch situations renders him eerily similar to CJ Stroud, while Mendoza has the intelligent and strong-armed gunslinger profile of a young, prime Carson Palmer.”
The franchise hasn’t taken a first-round quarterback since the JaMarcus Russell disaster in 2007. Nineteen years of avoiding the position at the top of the draft. Nineteen years of trying to find shortcuts.
The mock draft data suggests Raiders fans are done waiting. They watched the Geno Smith trade with hope. They watched the season with horror. And now more than half of them are clicking on quarterback when they simulate the 2026 draft.
The message to the front office is clear — get it right this time.
