With only six games on the Wild Card slate, defense streaming becomes a high-leverage decision for fantasy football players. The margin for error shrinks, but so does the noise. Here’s a breakdown of every D/ST in action this weekend — who to trust, who to fade, and where the sneaky upside lives.
1) Texans (at Steelers)
Houston has been one of the better defenses all season, and against a Steelers offense that lacks explosive potential, they figure to wreak havoc. DK Metcalf offers upside for the home team, but Arthur Smith has been unwilling to explore the deep passing game all season.
That figures to remain sticky against the second-best pressure defense in the NFL during the regular season (42.2% of opponent dropbacks).
Houston is favored, which suggests game script should work in their defense’s favor. If Pittsburgh is forced to play catch-up, this could be a huge evening for the Texans’ elite unit.
2) Rams (at Panthers)
This season, the Rams rank fourth in defensive rush success rate. That may not matter as much as the playoffs progress and offenses put their fate in the hands of their quarterback, but stuffing the run in their Wild Card game in Carolina could pave the way to a fantasy explosion.
The Panthers want to run the ball and ask Bryce Young to do the minimum. In close games, that’s proven effective, but as a significant underdog, the expectation is for this to be a one-dimensional offense—and that one dimension is their weakness.
The Rams could force multiple turnovers, and with a high dropback expectation, a handful of sacks is within the range of reasonable outcomes.+
3) Patriots (vs. Chargers)
If you’re going to take a defense from this game, you’re better off going with the home favorite. Just bear in mind that the Chargers play a brand of offense that is not conducive to opposing defense fantasy scoring.
Despite having a healthy 56% neutral game script pass rate, Justin Herbert averaged only 32 pass attempts per game. That’s because the Chargers play painfully slow. Their 29.7 seconds per play is the seventh-highest rate in the league.
The gamble here is that the Patriots maintain enough of a lead to force the Chargers to throw more. We’ve seen Justin Herbert sacked heavily in bad game scripts—he’s had seven games this season where he went down at least four times. Herbert has also thrown 13 interceptions.
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New England finished as the No. 10 fantasy defense on the season. They should be able to get to Herbert a couple of times and are unlikely to get blown out. You can certainly do worse than the Patriots.
4) Eagles (vs. 49ers)
We know the 49ers are capable of putting up big numbers offensively. They dropped 42 on the Bears a mere two weeks ago. But the Eagles have a legitimately good defense, finishing inside the top 10 in fantasy scoring this season.
Brock Purdy has been playing excellent over the past month but reminded us of his shockingly low floor when the 49ers put up a mere three points against the Seahawks in Week 18.
Purdy has thrown an interception in three straight games and has three other games with multiple picks this season. As a reminder, he’s only played in nine games. Philadelphia finished in the top half in sacks and interceptions.
They are touchdown home favorites likely to force the 49ers into negative game script. This is not a team you want to have to throw on. The Eagles are one of the best defensive options in a limited Wild Card field.
5) Bills (at Jaguars)
This game has the highest total on the weekend. Whether you’re playing DFS or in a one-and-done playoff format, it’s probably best to target offense in this game.
The Bills were a merely average fantasy defense this season, finishing about 15th at the position. A big part of the problem is their run-funnel nature. While being good against the pass is better for them in real life, we want fantasy defenses to encourage opponents to throw, as that is how fantasy points are scored.
Earlier in the season, Trevor Lawrence would’ve been a quarterback to target given his propensity to throw the ball to the wrong team. From Weeks 1-12, Lawrence threw 11 interceptions. Since then, though, he’s been stellar, turning the ball over just once.
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Add in the fact that the Bills typically opt to play two-high safeties and not rush the passer (just 36 sacks on the season), and it’s hard to see them scoring many fantasy points outside of a fluky defensive score.
6) Steelers (vs. Texans)
The Steelers’ defense has looked good at points, and the shaky offensive line of the Texans could give them a chance to make some splash plays—but that’s only if they are playing with a lead.
Should Houston take an early lead as expected, this unit is a tough sell for fantasy purposes. They are a below-average run defense in terms of running back yards per carry after contact, and if they are forced to crowd the line of scrimmage to cover that flaw, we could see spike plays over the top like we did in Week 18.
This is a decent unit in a tough spot. Manage expectations for fantasy purposes.
7) Jaguars (vs. Bills)
This one isn’t overly complicated. Even with limited options in the NFL postseason, we don’t start defenses against elite quarterbacks. Josh Allen is the best quarterback playing January football. The Bills allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.
The Jaguars are one of the league’s premier pass-funnel defenses. That gives them a little bit of upside. But that also assumes rational coaching.
Trevor Lawrence 60.9% Completion, 4,007 Passing Yards, 359 Rushing Yards, 38 Total TDs 2025 Regular Season Highlights.pic.twitter.com/SC5HDMgvdV https://t.co/2cgeKeIn5r
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) January 8, 2026
Will offensive coordinator Joe Brady actually call pass plays? Despite having the best quarterback on the planet, the Bills seem to prefer not putting the ball in Josh Allen’s hands for most of the game before asking him to turn into Super Josh and bail them out late.
Buffalo’s 49% neutral game script run rate is the third-highest in the league. Plus, even if they do opt to go more pass heavy, Allen isn’t exactly the type of quarterback to bolster the effectiveness of the opposing defense.
This game has the highest total on the weekend. Whether you’re playing DFS or in a one-and-done playoff format, it’s probably best to target offense in this game.
8) Packers (at Bears)
Without Micah Parsons, this isn’t the same unit, but they aren’t bereft of talent. We don’t have much of a real sample without their star, but it is worth noting that they are familiar with the Ben Johnson scheme.
As is the case with Chicago, it’s a matter of how you project this game to go. If Green Bay is playing from a position of power, Caleb Williams will look to extend plays, and that naturally carries defensive upside with it. He’s been picked off in two of their past three defeats, and the sack equity would rise with him forced to search for splash plays.
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If Chicago is leading, this defense could end up with a goose egg. Not only can the Bears put up points in bunches, but this system limited D/ST production last year. Johnson’s Lions swept the Packers in 2024, committing one turnover and allowing just two sacks across those 120 minutes.
If forced to pick a D/ST in this game, pick the team you expect to win and hope for a spike play.
9) Chargers (at Patriots)
This is one of the more intriguing games on the slate, as it could really go either way. Would it be all that surprising if this was a low-scoring 20-17 type game? What about if we saw a 31-28 shootout? Both of these teams have offenses capable of scoring a lot of points and defenses that are good, not great.
This is Drake Maye’s first playoff start. It’s only his second season. We’ve seen young quarterbacks humbled by experienced teams before. Of course, Maye has also been lights out all season. He’s thrown just eight interceptions while accounting for multiple touchdowns in all but five games.
The Chargers finished 10th in sacks and third in interceptions. There is upside here. But road underdogs are not the type of defenses fantasy managers should target. They are far from the worst option, but there are better ones available.
10) Bears (vs. Packers)
There is sneaky upside here, but it’s in a risk-reward sense. Jordan Love isn’t afraid to throw deep, and the Bears have the fourth-highest opponent aDOT. Those deep throws naturally carry the potential to do damage, but they also carry high turnover expectancy.
Their value largely depends on how you think this game plays out. If Chicago is leading, their potential to score well increases, but if they fall behind, it’s a lot of Josh Jacobs and not a lot of fantasy upside.
11) Panthers (vs. Rams)
The Rams trust Matthew Stafford to pass, and in most instances, we want to chase defenses facing heavy dropback teams. This isn’t most cases.
Not only has Stafford been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the sport, but the Rams should be able to pick up yards en masse on the ground against the regular season’s sixth-worst EPA run defense.
The run sets up the pass, and with Stafford ranking as the fourth-best play-action quarterback by passer rating, this profiles as an efficient Rams attack that offers little room for Panthers D/ST upside.
12) 49ers (at Eagles)
Fantasy managers may still associate the 49ers with having a strong defense. Not too long ago, they were the consensus No. 1 defense in fantasy drafts. But these are not those 49ers.
The 2025 49ers were the sixth-worst fantasy defense. They would’ve been last in the league in interceptions if not for the Jets. They were last in the league with 20 sacks, a whopping six fewer than the second-worst team (also the Jets).
The Eagles have a 47% neutral game script run rate and run the ball 58% of the time when leading in the second half. Jalen Hurts is one of the least-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. This is not a recipe for fantasy success.
