The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the Seattle Seahawks to help you craft a winning lineup.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
I can’t imagine that this is how J.J. McCarthy saw the start of his NFL career going.
After a strong close in Chicago to open the season, the former 10th overall pick has thrown multiple interceptions in four of five games and is completing just 52.5% of his passes.
The rookie learning curve would be a little more acceptable if this were a Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward situation where the surrounding talent is limited, but that’s not close to being hte case in Minnesota where he has access to one of the best WRs in the game, one of the better WR2’s in the sport, and a proven offensive mind at the controls.
He went three-of-four (with a TD) when throwing deep in that comeback win over the Bears, but since then, he’s 15-of-39 with one score and seven interceptions when attempting to stretch the field. When you put all of the numbers together on a page, you are left with the worst passer rating by a first-round pick through six career starts since 2010.
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Minnesota isn’t going to ask McCarthy to do the heavy lifting these days and that pretty much excludes him from the fantasy conversation in 2025, no matter the matchup. He’s out for this week with the concussion, but there isn’t nearly enough juice to squeeze, even when he’s at full strength.
Max Brosmer, QB
Max Brosmer is stepping in for the injured JJ McCarthy and there’s not much in the way of upside to chase here. He completed over 1,000 passes during his collegiate career, but with just eight pass attempts on his pro resume, there’s no use in tempting fate.
On the bright side, it would seem that Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are in a spot where they can only improve, so I’m not touching my ranks of them. Jefferson is a starter with lowered expectations and Addison is someone I’d rather avoid.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
From a role perspective, it appears we have clarity in Minnesota, which is a nice first step. Aaron Jones was handed the ball on their first two plays in Lambeau last weekend and played ahead of Jordan Mason without much hesitation throughout:
- Jones: 65.9% snaps, 12 touches, 8.7 points
- Mason: 27.3% snaps, 8 touches, 4.2 points
The offensive environment as a whole, however, is a different conversation. For just the second time this season, Jones averaged under a yard per carry before contact, something that I tie directly back to the limitations at the QB position and the inability to punish defenses for crowding the line of scrimmage.
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I’m not overly optimistic that we’ll see that change over the next month, and especially not in this matchup. Even as the RB1 in this offense, Jones has just one game this season with double-digit carries, and that makes him beholden to work in the passing game to give us any value whatsoever.
He’s caught exactly three passes in three straight games, and while that’s nice, there’s not nearly enough upside attached to those targets to make him a safe play in any format.
Jordan Mason, RB
If this Minnesota offense was functioning at even a league-average level, I could talk myself into Jordan Mason being a low-end flex play due to my belief that he’s likely to handle the bulk of the short-yardage opportunities, but that’s not even close to being the case right now.
Mason has failed to clear 10 carries in five straight contests and has just three targets over that stretch. If you’re rostering him, you’re hoping for a cheap touchdown from a team that hasn’t reached 20 points in a game once during their current losing streak.
You can do better.
To make matters worse, Mason was stuffed on a goal-line carry last week in Lambeau: chasing a touchdown is dangerous in a perfect situation, and this is far from that with J.J. McCarthy struggling.
Jordan Addison, WR
I think we can all agree that Jordan Addison would love to see November end.
- Week 9 at Lions: 48 yards, 4 targets
- Week 10 vs. Ravens: 35 yards, 11 targets
- Week 11 vs. Bears: 20 yards (saved by a TD), 7 targets
- Week 12 at Packers: 0 yards, 1 target
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No receiver projects to sustain the scoring rate that Addison had through his first two seasons (19 scores on 133 receptions), but this isn’t the sort of regression we’d pencil in.
This is pretty clearly a QB problem, and with that issue not going away, it’s safe to say that Addison is on the outside looking in at flex value moving forward. I’ll keep him rostered for his raw talent, but I’m not operating with much optimism moving forward.
Justin Jefferson, WR
It would be irresponsible not to address the struggles of Justin Jefferson recently in this J.J. McCarthy-led offense, so let’s get that out of the way.
- WR42 (12 targets, 37 yards)
- WR26 (9 targets, 61 yards)
- WR37 (6 targets, 48 yards)
Forget a star receiver, Jefferson hasn’t been consistently usable in PPR formats, and now a matchup against the third-worst YPA defense in the league.
That’s not ideal, but I’m sticking this one out. He had a 15-yard catch on McCarthy’s first pass last week, and over the past two games, Jefferson has accounted for 69.1% of Minnesota’s first-half receiving yards. The plan is there, and while the execution is obviously an issue, it’s at least a thread of optimistic usage to prevent you from making a rash decision.
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Jefferson has fallen to the middling WR2 bucket, but he’s still a starter for me. Just like we thought three months ago: A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Michael Wilson, and Jefferson are all sharing a Week 13 tier.
In theory, a change at QB can’t be a bad thing, but we don’t know that Max Brosmer starting this week is a step in a positive direction.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
The Vikings are replicating some of what the Ravens do with Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson is the test subject, but if the team has to get cute to get the tight end involved, is it really someone we want to count on?
I don’t think it is.
Hockenson took a direct snap and caught all four of his targets (no minor accomplishment in a J.J. McCarthy-led offense that saw all of his teammates catch just 57.1% of their looks), and yet, we are left with 5.9 PPR points and another negative return on investment.
I don’t know if it’s fair to dismiss McCarthy as a prospect outright. Still, it’s clear that he’s not processing the game at the speed needed to move an offense forward with any sort of consistency, and that’s giving Justin Jefferson issues every week, never mind a tight end who has scored just twice over the past two seasons (21 games played, 113 targets earned).
This is obviously a tough matchup, but I’m not sure that I’d feel any differently in whatever a “good” matchup for this offense looks like. This is a unit stuck in the mud, and an increase in Hockenson’s usage probably isn’t high on the list of ways they plan to dig out.
He doesn’t need to be rostered, and I’m not the least bit tempted to stream in this direction for Week 13.