Kyle Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (vs BUF)

The wrist injury suffered in Week 11 against the Bengals cost Aaron Rodgers last week, and while that decision came down to game time, making this week theoretically a decent bet, why worry about it?

We know that Buffalo’s defensive weakness is on the road, and we know that, regardless of who is playing quarterback, Pittsburgh has no interest in getting caught up in a shootout.

Rodgers doesn’t have a game with 250 passing yards this year, doesn’t have a deep completion in November, and has more games with negative rushing yards than games with 10+.

He’s walking into the Hall of Fame when he hangs up his cleats, but his utility in fantasy, even if fully cleared, is very much a thing of the past.

Baker Mayfield | TB (vs ARI)

Baker Mayfield left the Week 12 loss with a non-throwing shoulder injury, and while we got reports that “there was no fracture and no structural damage” on Monday, this is a situation that is likely to come down to the wire.

Why ruin your holiday weekend sweating this news?

🔥 Rock Riley going OFF about Baker Mayfield!⁣
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“You absolutely MUST play Baker!”⁣
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Tampa radio legend isn’t having ANY “rest Baker” talk. Every game is must-win in this tight NFC South.⁣
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Baker went through walkthrough with NO sling. He’s ready! 🏈 pic.twitter.com/F53tX3O7gt

— Nick Wize (@iAmNickWize) November 26, 2025

Mayfield doesn’t have multiple TD passes in four of his past five games and hasn’t flashed the type of elevated floor that he did earlier this year. With Mike Evans out and opponents adjusting to what it is that Emeka Egbuka likes to do, the upside of this profile is all but gone. The rushing numbers are spotty, and we are six weeks removed from Mayfield’s last 35+ yard completion.

If he plays, this is a fine matchup, but if we are talking banged-up starters, I’d rather roll the dice on CJ Stroud on a fast track and likely playing in catch-up mode.

Bo Nix | DEN (at WAS)

If you can connect the dots on when the good Bo Nix is going to show up, you’re a smarter person than I.

There is no denying that there is a ceiling to chase. He has four QB1 finishes this season, and three of them have been top-7 weeks. When he finds a groove, we are looking at a dual threat with the confidence to make a variety of plays and the freedom to do it.

That said, it’s anything but comfortable when your lineup locks with him in your starting lineup.

This season, there’s a 34.2-point gap between his worst and best games. He’s followed up three of his QB1 finishes without a QB15 or worse performance. His great games have come in positive matchups (NYG, CIN, and DAL), but his two single-digit games have come at home against the Raiders and Titans.

I don’t love the fact that he’s been held to under 10 rushing yards in three of his past four games or that he’s been vulnerable when pressured over the past two weeks (9-of-25 with zero scores and two interceptions).

This matchup puts Nix on the QB1 radar, and I have him ranked as such, but if there’s a quarterback I’m at risk of mis-ranking by 6-8 spots, he’s it.

And I’m not even sure what direction I’m most likely to miss on Nix.

If you have a great team, I’d try to stream in a level of safety. But if you’re flying by the seat of your pants with a sporadic roster that needs to punch above its weight, why not embrace the variance?

Brock Purdy | SF (at CLE)

Brock Purdy looked in control of everything on the first drive against the Panthers on Monday night (six-of-seven with a touchdown toss to Jauan Jennings), but was scatter-shot the rest of the night and finished the week as the 24th highest scoring quarterback despite the plus matchup.

He now has multiple interceptions in three of his four starts this season, and the weakness last week was no secret: he was off schedule on the deep passes all night.

Week 12: Throws of 15+ Air Yards

• 6 attempts
• 1 completion
• 3 interceptions

All seven of his picks have come on such passes this season, and that means one of two things moving forward: he continues to put this team’s win equity on the line, or the coaching staff takes a long look at the game plan.

Honestly, neither is great for us. A quarterback like this needs vertical upside to give him a chance at cracking our top 10, but, breaking news, turnovers mean you don’t have the ball anymore, and that makes scoring fantasy points difficult.

I’m more bullish on Purdy rounding into form over the next month than I am on him beating this Browns defense on any sort of consistent basis. There is a tier of good QBs in tough spots this week (Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, etc.), and he is sitting at the end of that tier for me.

Bryce Young | CAR (vs LAR)

Playing catch-up is always going to be an uphill battle for this Carolina team, given how their offense is structured, and Bryce Young’s stat line against San Francisco on Monday night was indicative of that: 16-of-29 for 169 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.

This is a pretty standard night for the third-year QB; it’s just a little disappointing in a good matchup and coming off a 448-3-0 performance in Atlanta. Both of his interceptions came when the Niners blitzed, and he has more picks in such spots this season in 101 dropbacks than he did in his first two combined (307 dropbacks).

There’s some talent on this roster, but the questions about whether Young is the man of the future are plenty fair.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (at IND)

The expectation is for C.J. Stroud (concussion) to return from a three-game absence, all of which happened to be victories for a Houston game that is now over .500 for the first time this season.

Does it matter?

In theory, it should. In those three games, Davis Mills had 270+ passing yards in two of them and multiple passing scores in two of them. If Stroud can parlay that success and add 15% production as a result of being the more talented player, we are looking at 22-23 fantasy points, and that’s a usable projection in a spot where the Texans figure to be pushed offensively.

But will it?

Stroud has one top-10 finish this season, and I worry that his weakness is in danger of being further exposed after the injury.

Profile Against The Blitz

• 2023: 13.7 yards per completion, 8.6% TD rate, 1.7% INT rate
• 2024: 10.7 yards per completion, 5.2% TD rate, 2.2% INT rate
• 2025: 10.2 yards per completion, 3.1% TD rate, 3.1% INT rate

The Colts aren’t a high blitz team, but they’ve gotten meaningfully more aggressive over the past month, and in a spot like this against an offensive line that can struggle at a high level, I expect that to be a leverage point.

Show me you’re healthy, Stroud. The Chiefs are on the books for next Sunday night, but after that, there are home games against the Cardinals and the Raiders. If Stroud can steady the ship over the next two weeks, he could be an asset as your fantasy season comes to a close.

Caleb Williams | CHI (at PHI)

Caleb Williams gave us a bit of everything last week against the Steelers.

It was his fourth straight game without an interception, his fifth straight with over 20 yards on the ground, and his third effort of the season with 3+ touchdown passes.

The good is so good and is a big reason why the Bears enter Week 13 as the Kings of the NFC North.

The bad, however, still creeps in. He’s completed under 59% of his passes in four straight games and showed a lack of awareness early last week with a lack of ball security in a play that resulted in a Steelers touchdown.

RELATED: NFL Thanksgiving Games 2025: Which Teams Are Playing on the Holiday Triple-Header This Year?

In total, the good has outweighed the bad. He has six top-10 finishes this season, and while I think he’d have to run hot in this matchup to get there in what I think could be a low time of possession game for the road team, his versatility keeps him above the streaming tier.

As things stand right now, I have Williams ranked as my QB13 for Week 13.

Cameron Ward | TEN (vs JAX)

Cam Ward showed some nice wiggle on his first rushing touchdown as a pro last week against the Seahawks, and by completing two-thirds of his passes against one of the better defenses in the league, I think dynasty managers can be encouraged by the tape he put forth a week ago.

For redraft purposes, we aren’t there yet and might be more than a year away. Ward has just seven touchdowns on his 374 attempts this season and has averaged under seven yards per pass in all but one of his starts this season.

Development isn’t linear: don’t dismiss Ward long-term because of an underwhelming season.

Dak Prescott | DAL (vs KC)

For the seventh time this season, Dak Prescott threw multiple touchdown passes last week, and he’s proven relentless over the course of four quarters this season.

Against the Eagles last week, Prescott’s Cowboys looked dead to rights, but he stuck with the plan, and it paid off. In the victory, 57.1% of his targets and 62.4% of his passing yards went to his top two receivers: if we see that level of execution the rest of the way, he can be a Tier 1 pocket passer.

His rushing days are behind him, but with over three fantasy points on the ground in three of his past four starts, there’s at least the hope for him to add value secondarily.

The Chiefs have allowed a QB to reach his season fantasy average just three times through 12 weeks, and that sort of tenacity requires us to adjust our expectations a bit. That said, if you’re projecting Patrick Mahomes to have success in this spot, you’re forcing Prescott’s hand in terms of volume, and that’ll get him into the QB1 conversation more often than not.

Right now, he’s on the right side of the top-12 at the position for me.

Daniel Jones | IND (vs HOU)

Daniel Jones was effective on Sunday in Kansas City, but he failed to reach 200 passing yards for the first time this season and failed to clear 20 rushing yards for the seventh time in an eight-game sample.

The chunk play of last week (48-yard completion to Ashton Dulin) came thanks to the pressure that Jonathan Taylor puts on opponents. He pulled back a handoff on a third-and-short situation, picking a part of a secondary that overcommitted to the run.

Things like that are how Jones can threaten the top 15 in any given week. Well, that and channeling 21 of 31 targets to his three primary receiving weapons (Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs).

There are paths to success, but I said it when Indy went on their bye, and I’ll say it again: I don’t have Jones ranked as a fantasy starter moving forward. This is obviously a tough matchup, and he still has two games with the opportunistic Jags on top of a Week 15 showdown in Seattle left on the schedule.

I’d rather piece together the position via streaming options than rely on Jones getting my fantasy team to the finish line.

Davis Mills | HOU (at IND)

Davis Mills has led the Texans to three straight wins, but he’s averaging 5.9 yards per pass this season. He hasn’t done enough in terms of elevating this offense to justify the team playing him over C.J. Stroud when the presumed starter is cleared (and that’s the expectation).

Nico Collins has averaged 13.8 yards per catch over the past three weeks, and the Mills legacy will be felt in that fashion. If he loosens the cap on the Collins jar and Stroud can execute opening it, their WR1 could well be the difference maker you drafted him to be for the fantasy postseason.

Drake Maye | NE (vs NYG)

After routinely posting finishes inside the top 10 to open the season, he’s now gone four straight weeks without one, a “slump” that is coming at a bad time for managers who have now considered him a lineup staple.

Even in a poor performance last week, he averaged 8.4 yards per pass and ran for 22 yards. If that’s the worst-case scenario, we live with it, even if a one-TD game against the Trey Hendrickson-less Bengals fails to make sense.

At the end of the day, I’m not worried and have Maye ranked as QB4 this week. We know the athletic profile is there, but I’m just as impressed with the maturity shown when blitzed this season:

• 67.6% complete
• 8.4 yards per attempt
• 8 touchdowns
• 0 interceptions

The recent dry spell is more annoying than it is predictive. Starting QBs have operated with a 17-fantasy point floor recently against New York, with Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Jalen Hurts all clearing 25 points since Week 7.

We fell in love with what Maye was giving us early in the season, and I expect more of that on Monday night.

Geno Smith | LV (at LAC)

Geno Smith left a few plays on the field last week, but that’s what happens when you’re sacked 10 times and, as a result, a little quick on the trigger. There was a potential 65-yard Tre Tucker touchdown that could have been, and if that happens, maybe he is more on the two-QB radar, but it didn’t, and I’d rather not look this direction in any sense.

Pressured dropbacks aren’t an occurrence so much as a lifestyle for Smith these days. Of the 40 qualified QBs through 12 weeks, he ranks 32nd in pressured pass TD% and 33rd in pressured INT%.

We are asking a lot of Smith to support Brock Bowers as a top-5 tight end; let’s not push the envelope and ask for anything more.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (at SEA)

I can’t imagine that this is how J.J. McCarthy saw the start of his NFL career going.

After a strong close in Chicago to open the season, the former 10th overall pick has thrown multiple interceptions in four of five games and is completing just 52.5% of his passes.

The rookie learning curve would be a little more acceptable if this were a Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward situation where the surrounding talent is limited, but that’s not close to being hte case in Minnesota where he has access to one of the best WRs in the game, one of the better WR2’s in the sport, and a proven offensive mind at the controls.

He went three-of-four (with a TD) when throwing deep in that comeback win over the Bears, but since then, he’s 15-of-39 with one score and seven interceptions when attempting to stretch the field. When you put all of the numbers together on a page, you are left with the worst passer rating by a first-round pick through six career starts since 2010.

Minnesota isn’t going to ask McCarthy to do the heavy lifting these days and that pretty much excludes him from the fantasy conversation in 2025, no matter the matchup. He’s out for this week with the concussion, but there isn’t nearly enough juice to squeeze, even when he’s at full strength.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (at TB)

Jacoby Brissett has posted nothing but top-12 finishes since taking over for Kyler Murray and ranks as QB5 in PPG since Week 6.

He’s been nothing short of phenomenal with multiple TD passes in each of those games and a heavy reliance on his most trusted outlets. This isn’t a Jameis Winston, throw-everything-against-the-wall game plan. What has allowed Brissett to sustain his production is his willingness to play within himself.

Over the past two weeks, he’s 59-of-68 when throwing short of the sticks. I don’t think he keeps completing those passes at an 86.8% rate, but with the Bucs blitzing at the sixth-highest rate this season (31.3% of dropbacks), that throw diet gives me confidence in the fantasy floor of this profile.

The decision, I suspect, people are going to have to make is between Brissett and Joe Burrow.

Give me Brissett.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs CHI)

A first drive TD strike to A.J. Brown (16 yards) and a pair of first-half rushing scores had Week 12 moving in the direction of a slate-breaking Jalen Hurts performance, but the Eagles looked lost after the hot start, blew the 21-0 lead, and stunted the elite production of their QB.

Yikes.

He threw a season high 39 passes, and if you give me volume anywhere close to that, I’m ranking Hurts as a Tier 1 QB without a second thought. I find it unlikely that we get a similar game script this week, but I don’t think Hurts’ managers will need it.

The quality of deep throws has been more of an issue than the quantity of late. In Philadelphia’s past four games, he’s misfired on 19 of 26 deep passes, misses those stunt drives, and creates frustration.

It’s a real problem if they want to repeat, but for Week 13, this lines up as a get-right spot.

Over the past decade, there have been 320 measured team seasons. The Bears are allowing 15.1 yards per deep pass (313th) and a score on 11.8% of those attempts (308th). The Eagles hit their offensive stride late last season before cruising to a title, and if that’s going to happen again, this looks like a turning point.

Jameis Winston | NYG (at NE)

My goodness, did we get the full Jameis Winston experience last week in Detroit?

• 366 passing yards (on just 18 completions)
• 2 passing TDs (distances of 12 and 39 yards)
• 1 interception (nearly crippling in the fourth quarter)
• 1 receiving TD (33 yards, a contested grab with a broken tackle)

He came out firing, as only Jameis Winston can, and never backed down. It was great fun, and we all enjoyed it, but if you showed up late, you missed out.

In the second half, the Winston bubble burst. He was two-of-eight with an interception when pressured, and that is a situation he figures to find himself in regularly this week should he get the start again for Jaxson Dart (concussion).

Chaos can be fun, and last week, it happened to be productive, but this supporting cast isn’t exactly built for that style of play. He used Wan’Dale Robinson like he was Mike Evans, and forgive me if I don’t think that is a sustainable path to profit, given the nine-inch height difference.

He’ll rank outside of my top 15 at the position should he get the nod, behind a widely available QB in Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NO).

Jared Goff | DET (vs GB)

Jared Goff finishing with 279 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns last week was an impressive showing when you consider what Jahmyr Gibbs was doing on the ground.

We’ve seen his pass attempt count tick up every week since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties, and with the balance of this run game, I like the projectable efficiency of Goff moving forward.

The interception last week was off the hands of Amon-Ra St. Brown in the red zone: the final stat line would look different if that drive finished with a touchdown, which happens more often than not.

Jameson Williams getting shut out was curious, but Goff funneling 65.8% of his targeted passes to St. Brown or Gibbs is encouraging. This is a loaded offense that traditionally thrives when playing inside, and with them showing strong signs of concentration, I’ve got this labeled as a top 5 offense for the remainder of the season.

This Packers defense can create chaos at a high level, but I’m looking for Campbell to scheme up a quick-hitting attack, and I think that plays well. Give me Goff as a top 10 QB in the first game of the week.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (at NE)

The Giants are working with an interim coach and navigating a franchise quarterback who is progressing slowly through concussion protocol (consecutive DNPs).

That’s not exactly a profile I like leaning into with one of the better AFC teams on the schedule, but the results of Jaxson Dart demand that we consider him as a viable option if active and, to be honest, closer to a lineup lock.

The rookie has run for a touchdown or thrown 40+ passes in every start of his young career, and the reckless play that landed him on the sidelines last week is exactly what makes him a difference maker in our game.

It’s a fine needle to thread for a team going nowhere in 2025. If this were a team making a serious run, I don’t think I’d be far from ranking Dart as a Tier 1 fantasy QB: we’d have no reason to think that his style of play was at risk of changing, and with an offense like the Lions on the other side, we’d love the script potential.

But after a Week 12 DNP, we are left with more questions than answers.

I don’t think they can change Dart’s approach to the game overnight. His duality and bold play are what got him to this point, and I can’t imagine this is the first time there have been discussions about how he goes about his business.

That said, this is very much a franchise that needs to take a long-term view. They are already without two skill-position players who figure to impact their future in a major way: the training wheels will come off this offense next year at full strength, but that won’t matter if the bike isn’t in pristine condition beforehand.

Should he get cleared, I’ll have Dart ranked as a top-12 QB this week, with the expectation that he’ll continue to challenge defenses on the ground in a significant way. That’s the fantasy cheat code, but we have also seen some subtle passing growth despite a limited crew of pass catchers by his side:

• Weeks 4-7: 41.2% complete on ball thrown to (or past) the sticks
• Weeks 8-10: 52.8% complete on ball thrown to (or past) the sticks

Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs DEN)

It’s believed to be a long shot that Jayden Daniels (elbow) suits up this week, but a return to practice does point to a return sooner than later.

We could debate about the rationale that goes into that decision, but at the end of the day, that’s not our job. This season, he has a rush TD or multiple passing scores in four of six games, and while it hasn’t looked the same as his standout rookie season, a healthy version of him is a fantasy asset.

After this week, the Commanders go Vikings-Giants-Eagles-Cowboys to close the fantasy season. We catch a break with the second Philadelphia game coming in Week 18, and the other three opponents over that stretch don’t scare me in a major way.

We can deal with the Eagles matchup in Week 16 (a Saturday kickoff) when/if the time comes, but should he return next week on the fast track in Minnesota, I anticipate having him ranked as a starter in all formats.

Joe Burrow | CIN (at BAL)

Is he ready (toe)? Is he coming back too fast? How much will the Tee Higgins injury factor into all of this?

I’d be lying to you if I said I had all of the answers. Or, really, any of them. We have no way of knowing what this is going to look like in his first game action in over two months against a team that is trending in as positive a direction as they have all season.

Sportsbooks have more knowledge than any of us, and they have this game with an implied total of 52.5 points: I’ll take their word for it. Burrow has cleared 22 fantasy points in seven of 10 career games with a point total of 50+ points, and that’s generally what I’m using as a baseline.

Three of Baltimore’s four highest-pressure rate games have come over the past three weeks, and that is the path where I think this could go sideways. If Burrow is going to show rust, this feels like the right spot, but he is coming off of his best season in terms of pressured numbers (104 passer rating with a 15-to-3 touchdown-to-interception rate).

Your tolerance to take on the risk that comes with Burrow hinges on your alternative option. I’ve got him penciled in as my QB9 this week, just behind the red-hot Jacoby Brissett (769 passing yards over the past two weeks and 44+ passes thrown in three straight) and ahead of the Jared Goff/Bo Nix tier.

Joe Flacco | CIN (at BAL)

Joe Flacco was putting up impactful numbers for a month to revitalize the skill position players in this offense. Still, he’s struggled in two difficult matchups (totals over the past two weeks: 382 yards, 54.5% complete, two touchdowns, and two interceptions) and was never going to start over a reasonably healthy Joe Burrow.

This offense is going to need to score moving forward (remaining schedule: Ravens, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, and Cardinals), and that makes the QB at the top of this depth chart viable should Flacco find himself at the top of this depth chart again.

Jordan Love | GB (at DET)

From Week 4-12, Jordan Love has one finish better than QB14.

He’s been good enough for his Packers to be in a competitive position through three months, but for our purposes, he simply hasn’t been good.

The profile is worrisome, but what we saw last week was a larger issue.

With Josh Jacobs out of the lineup, Green Bay refused to ramp up the usage of their franchise QB, instead loading up Emanuel Wilson with 30 touches. Was this a matchup thing or the Packers telling us what they think of Love?

For just the second time this year, he didn’t complete a pass with 20 air yards behind it. Heck, for the first time since Week 17 of 2022 (in a full game), he didn’t have a 20-yard completion, regardless of the depth of throw.

The fast track in Detroit and an offensive environment could elevate Love to a QB1, but I’m skeptical. This is beginning to feel a little like Patrick Mahomes from years past, where he’s asked to do things that are more effective for the team than us.

You supervise the cooking of the turkey to make sure the house doesn’t burn down: I’ll be in my corner, jotting down play patterns and seeing if my worries extend into this huge divisional matchup.

Love is my QB16 for the week.

Josh Allen | BUF (at PIT)

Consecutive weeks of some bad signs for the reigning MVP?

Josh Allen scored six touchdowns in Week 11, but there were some weird red flags. There was the chest pass out of his own end zone that was intercepted, and a general desire to make every play a game-breaking play, something that I thought we shook out of him last season.

On Thursday night, he took a career-high eight sacks against the Texans, and while the sacks aren’t all on him, there’s no way eight sacks should lose 70 yards.

Worst Encores Since 2006 (QBs Coming Off Of 40+ Fantasy Points)

1. Josh Allen (Thursday): -34.2 points
2. Tony Romo (Week 6, 2013): -32.1 points
3. Drew Brees (Week 4, 2018): -32 points
4. Justin Herbert (Week 6, 2021): -31.8 points
5. Josh Allen (Week 16, 2024): -30.1 points

He’s thrown five interceptions over the past three weeks after throwing four through the first nine weeks of the season. While I view picks as less prohibitive than most, the regression in quarterbacking maturity worries me for his fantasy floor.

We still have a large sample of growth, so I’m going to give him one more pass. This was against maybe the league’s best defense on a weird short week. Allen has extended prep time to get on track for a more favorable matchup: he’s locked into my top tier at the position, but I’ll be watching how he goes about handling his business in this spot.

Justin Herbert | LAC (vs LV)

For me, Justin Herbert, statistically, is trending in the direction of peak Aaron Rodgers.

He has five straight games with both a 30-yard completion and a 10-yard rush. His rushing total is already at a career high for a season, and I don’t think it’s crazy to say that, as the focal point of everything Jim Harbaugh wants to do offensively, his best passing days are ahead of him.

With four top-5 finishes on his 2025 resume, this has already been a wildly successful campaign, and I think we could see him add to that total against a defense that was lit up by Dak Prescott two weeks ago.

Herbert is pacing for a career high in-pocket completion percentage while seeing his out-of-pocket YPA jump by 51.1% from a season ago. You’re playing him with confidence every week for the remainder of the season. I’m not breaking news there.

Could he be considered a Tier 1 fantasy option at the position in August?

Kirk Cousins | ATL (at NYJ)

Kirk Cousins completed 16-of-23 passes against the Saints on Sunday for 199 yards and a pair of scores.

I thought he was fine, but we are talking about a favorable matchup that featured a game script that worked in his favor. He connected with Darnell Mooney on a 49-yard score and got the ball from Bijan Robinson for a 32-yard gain, checking the basic boxes that we needed from him.

That said, this is a QB well past his prime, without access to running numbers, and likely without his star WR1.

The Jets matchup does not scare me, but the Falcons don’t want to put the ball in the hands of Cousins, and that lowers the ceiling to a point where it’s hard to see him posting anything close to top 15 numbers.

Atlanta had six more rush attempts than pass attempts over the weekend, and I’ve got a similar split projected for this one.

Kyler Murray | ARI (at TB)

Kyler Murray is eligible to come off of IR (foot) next week, but we haven’t had much in the way of reporting on that front.

He was struggling before the injury (his peak finish is QB14), and with the Rams and Texans on the books for Weeks 14-15, it’s really difficult to see a fantasy asset in Murray, even if he’s physically cleared.

If you have an IR slot that isn’t being used on a flex spot and have a fringe QB1 starting (or Jacoby Brissett), then holding Murray holds some weight. But if you have a weekly lineup lock at the QB position, there’s no need to burn a roster spot in this fashion: a full-go version of Murray doesn’t offer the ceiling we had hoped for when we drafted him back in August.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs CIN)

There’s no greater red flag in fantasy when the real-life team is having success and doesn’t need your fantasy player to contribute in a big way for that to happen.

That’s more a line of thought I take for skill position players, but it’s true for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson right now.

They’ve won four straight with him under center, and his completion count has declined in each of those contests (18-17-14-13). He had the monster return in Miami (four touchdowns), but he’s accounted for just one score since.

Potentially more concerning than the limited scoring equity is the fact that his 11 carries over the past two weeks have gained just 21 yards.

Is he hesitant? Is less being asked of him? Is the hope to work him up to full strength in an effort to make noise in January?

For fantasy managers, I hope not. A matchup with the defense is optional. Bengals should give us the answers we need: fail in this spot, and we have to have a serious conversation. For now, I’m downgrading him in the ranks, but not enough to bench him for a Jacoby Brissett type that you added off the wire.

Jackson is a Tier 2 QB for me, a range that stretches down to QB8.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (vs DEN)

Marcus Mariota has done a fine job, all things considered. He’s been asked to replace a franchise QB in an offense that lacks efficiency from the run game and has been without its WR1 for the majority of the season.

It hasn’t exactly been an ideal landing spot, and a matchup with the Broncos doesn’t project as the type of get-right game the Washington fanbase could use.

Mariota has averaged 8.2 YPA over his past two games and has at least 20 rushing yards in every start this season. That’s all well and good, but his baseline production is a low-end streamer at best, and only twice has a qualified QB hit his season average against this Broncos’ stingy defense.

I’d rank him ahead of skill position players in a Superflex setting, but not by much.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (at CAR)

Matthew Stafford is the MVP favorite for a reason. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in five straight and in nine of his past 10. He has two receivers who can seemingly beat any coverage and a running game respected enough for him to thrive in play-action situations (70.4% completion rate with 14 TDs and 0 INTs).

There’s one thread that can undo this profile, and that’s pressure. Of 34 qualifiers, Stafford ranks 26th in completion percentage when feeling the heat (behind J.J. McCarthy and Bryce Young). I think that’s a real flaw to consider as we pick nits, but not this weekend against the worst pass rush in the sport.

The Seahawks on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 with a trip to your fantasy finals on the line? That’s going to be a tough conversation to have, but it’s not something you’re sweating this second.

Max Brosmer | MIN (at SEA)

Max Brosmer is stepping in for the injured JJ McCarthy and there’s not much in the way of upside to chase here. He completed over 1,000 passes during his collegiate career, but with just eight pass attempts on his pro resume, there’s no use in tempting fate.

On the bright side, it would seem that Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are in a spot where they can only improve, so I’m not touching my ranks of them. Jefferson is a starter with lowered expectations and Addison is someone I’d rather avoid.

Patrick Mahomes | KC (at DAL)

“One pass TD over his last three games on 125 attempts” is a sentence I assumed I’d never type for Patrick Mahomes during this dynastic window, but here we are.

I’m not too worried.

I still consider the Cowboys a plus-matchup, even if they’ve looked better coming out of the bye, but more importantly, the Chiefs know they will only go as far as #15 will take them.

While the counting numbers haven’t been piled up recently, he does have a 38+ yard completion in five straight and a 10+ yard run in five of his past seven. In essence, we are getting the postseason version of Mahomes 1.5 months early, and that means he’s going to be a plus asset more often than not.

I was encouraged by him funneling 60.5% of his throws in the direction of Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, or Xavier Worthy. If we combine the rushing upside that he has flashed all season with that sort of concentration, I think there’s a real chance he leads the position in scoring this week.

As it is, he’s my QB3 for the week and my top Turkey Day signal caller.

Sam Darnold | SEA (vs MIN)

Sam Darnold is what the Seahawks need, but is he what fantasy managers need?

If you roster Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the answer is a resounding yes, but otherwise, not really. He has just two top-20 finishes at the position since Week 7 and is beholden to these deep shots to his WR1.

Did you know that his last touchdown thrown short of the sticks came back in Week 5?

Funneling 40% of his targets in the direction of JSN as he did on Sunday can create something of a stable floor, given the abilities of his WR1. Still, this Minnesota defense is swarming around right now (Caleb Williams and Jordan Love were both held under their season average production by more than 45% in this spot over the past two weeks), and that has me off of Darnold in all formats.

This revenge narrative is a fun one: a fun one that I don’t want my fantasy fate tied to in any way.

Shedeur Sanders | CLE (vs SF)

There are some signs of viability in Shedeur Sanders up to this point, but he’s not close to fantasy-relevant right now, and I’m not sure the roster around him, as it currently stands, gives him much of a chance.

The 52-yard completion to Isaiah Bond was a nice peek into what is possible, and his first touchdown pass (the screen that Dylan Sampson took to the house) at least showed the ability to be on time at this level.

Use this final month as an excuse to scout him for next season, but I’d be surprised if he is close to viable in one QB leagues in 2026 due to a lack of mobility and a below-average supporting cast.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at TEN)

I feel like the Trevor Lawrence profile at this point isn’t much different than that of Cam Ward. “Some nice plays that are encouraging but struggling to put together 60 consecutive good minutes” has basically been my stance on both all season and while it’s viewed as a positive (or, at least acceptable) for a rookie, that being the story for Lawrence in Year #5 is disappointing.

Last week in the OT win against the Cardinals, he had some nice highlights. He showed plus-athleticism with 29 rushing yards and hit Jakobi Meyers on a high-level pass off his back leg for a score in the third quarter.

But … three interceptions, a sub-64% completion rate for a third straight game, and a lack of downfield upside.

It’s one step forward and two back with him, and that’s a problem for a franchise chasing a playoff berth, never mind your fantasy team. For us, the fact that he is averaging his fewest YPA on deep passes is an issue, and one game over 271 passing yards (zero in the USA) is prohibitive.

This is a matchup that should excite me, but the Jags rank eighth in rush rate this season when favored, and I don’t expect them to put the ball in the hands of Lawrence enough to allow him to produce top 15 fantasy numbers.

Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs NO)

The Dolphins are home favorites against a team that has no motivation to win, and that means you could talk yourself into Tua Tagovailoa as a DFS punt play to get access to the elite running backs or elsewhere. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in three of four Miami wins this season and could well repeat that success with two elite playmakers at his disposal.

But the ceiling doesn’t offset the floor.

Tagovailoa only has two top 15 finishes this season, and without any teams on a bye, he checks in as an underdog to get there this week, even in a good spot. Jared Goff isn’t in a great spot (vs. GB), nor is Brock Purdy (at CLE) or Daniel Jones (vs. HOU) … I’d rather bet on their ceiling outcomes than what Tagovailoa offers this week.

Tyler Shough | NO (at MIA)

With 49 completions on 70 attempts over the past two weeks, Tyler Shough is showing some nice initial signs of development.

He’s still not close to being a fantasy asset, but strides are being made, and given the state of this roster, that’s an impressive feat.

New Orleans attempted a designed rush in scoring position against Atlanta last week, and while this offense was a mess inside the 10-yard line, their desire to be creative with the rookie is at least interesting.

At the very least, I feel better about his ability to keep the two pass catchers on this offense that matter for our purposes fed.

Tyrod Taylor | NYJ (vs ATL)

All things considered, 7.9 yards per pass with a touchdown and 19 rushing yards in Baltimore is about as good as anyone could have reasonably expected entering this game.

Tyrod Taylor was ordinary on a team with less than ordinary talent. With no one on a bye this week, there’s no need to go this deep, even in Superflex situations, but there are four teams on a bye next week. New York welcomes Miami for that week, and if Taylor plays the way he did over the weekend this weekend, he’ll be worthy of a look in those more exotic formats in Week 14.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (at SEA)

From a role perspective, it appears we have clarity in Minnesota, which is a nice first step. Aaron Jones was handed the ball on their first two plays in Lambeau last weekend and played ahead of Jordan Mason without much hesitation throughout:

• Jones: 65.9% snaps, 12 touches, 8.7 points
• Mason:  27.3% snaps, 8 touches, 4.2 points

The offensive environment as a whole, however, is a different conversation. For just the second time this season, Jones averaged under a yard per carry before contact, something that I tie directly back to the limitations at the QB position and the inability to punish defenses for crowding the line of scrimmage.

I’m not overly optimistic that we’ll see that change over the next month, and especially not in this matchup. Even as the RB1 in this offense, Jones has just one game this season with double-digit carries, and that makes him beholden to work in the passing game to give us any value whatsoever.

He’s caught exactly three passes in three straight games, and while that’s nice, there’s not nearly enough upside attached to those targets to make him a safe play in any format.

Alvin Kamara | NO (at MIA)

The MCL sprain Alvin Kamara suffered last week is considered a minor injury, but one that is likely to cost him at a minimum this week.

You’re holding because of the upcoming schedule (Weeks 15-17: vs. Panthers, vs. Jets, and at Titans) and this team’s commitment to Kamara as their lead man, but expectations have to be low based on everything we’ve seen (3.6 yards per carry and just 186 receiving yards this season) and now a nagging injury.

Devin Neal is the next man up, and he caught five of seven targets last week. The sixth-round rookie is worthy of rostering, but even in a plus matchup like this, I’m not tempted to call his number with zero teams on a bye.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (at LAC)

Ashton Jeanty is averaging just 0.54 yards per carry before contact, and that’s resulted in the worst gain% among qualified RBs this season (69.9%). We’ve seen flashes of the upside, but in terms of the ground game, this season has primarily been a disservice to the rookie.

That said, I love what we’ve seen in the passing game, something that this team wasn’t sold on early.

• September: 9.3% of touches were receptions
• October: 15.7% of touches were receptions
• November: 28.6% of touches have been receptions

That change in usage makes Jeanty a roster lock, even in a sub-par offense that can’t keep opponents out of the backfield. Take it a step further and, if this usage trend continues for the final month of the season, I’ll label this season as a net win for Jeanty’s fantasy stock.

No, not in terms of return on investment, that ship has sailed. But I do think we’ve seen him do enough as a runner to prove he is the high-level prospect moving forward we expected, and the fluidity in the passing game we saw early in his college career holds up at the professional level.

For those looking to lock in lineups early, note that we are tracking a minor ankle injury. It was suffered late last week, and initial reporting doesn’t sound too worrisome, but maybe slot him into your flex for now to keep your options open during this unique week.

Bam Knight | ARI (at TB)

Bam Knight (knee) enters the weekend listed as questionable and with Trey Benson ruled out for another week, this is his backfield to control should he be active after practicing in a limited capacity all week.

The volume projection looks solid, but everything else is working against him and that’s why he sits outside of my top 20 at the position this week.

The Bucs are an above average run defense in terms of both running back yards gained per carry before and after contact, a tough matchup for a player that doesn’t have a run of more than 17 yards this season (3.1 YPC).

Now, he has scored in consecutive games and has earned at least four targets in four of five. The Knight profile doesn’t look like an effiicient on, but fantasy box scores are like golf scorecards in that they don’t have pictures.

If active, Knight should get his hands on the ball 15 times and that’s going to be startable in most average sized formats with four teams on a bye, even if it’s not an exciting play.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at TEN)

Bhayshul Tuten looked the part in Week 11 against the Chargers (15 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown), sparking conversations about whether he could be part of this rookie class that is improving with time and set to make a splash during the fantasy playoffs.

Not likely.

Travis Etienne has scored 15+ fantasy points in all four games since the bye and really hasn’t given the team a reason to pivot.

So they aren’t, not with a playoff berth still very much on the table.

Tuten was on the field for just 21.3% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps in the win over the Cardinals last week and was out-snapped 8-2 in the first quarter by Etienne (LeQuint Allen also played two snaps in the first 15 minutes).

This is an offense with question marks and flaws, but neither applies to their backfield: this is the Etienne show, and Tuten is nothing more than a handcuff that can be cut if you’re backed into a corner and need immediate help.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (at NYJ)

The Jets have allowed a workhorse RB1 to clear 22 PPR points in three of their past four games, and Bijan Robinson enters having cleared 100 total yards in consecutive games.

Buckle up.

Robinson had a 30+ yard run and a 30+ yard catch against the Saints last week, the first such game of his career, and a reminder of just how dynamic he can be. If we are poking holes in this profile, it’s that he’s averaging 38.2% fewer points per touch against loaded boxes this season than last, but in a plus-matchup like this against a defense lacking talent and depth, I couldn’t be less concerned.

Robinson is my RB2 for the week and RB1 on the main DFS slate in terms of projecting raw point totals.

Blake Corum | LAR (at CAR)

The Rams are interested in using Blake Corum to spell Kyren Williams, and, on occasion, it looks like Sean McVay is truly interested in exploring what the second-year back can do with extended opportunities.

But those occasions come and go, and Williams remains. Corum has caught just one pass in November and five this season, a lack of versatility that makes much in the way of role growth next to impossible.

If he’s not going to catch passes and Williams (and Davante Adams) is going to dominate the goal line usage, there really isn’t a path to standalone value. Corum is a Tier 1 handcuff with Tyler Allgeier, but not one that I’m looking to play unless an injury were to occur.

Brashard Smith | KC (at DAL)

In my head, Brashard Smith fits a niche role in this offense. He caught three more passes on Sunday in the win over the Colts, the fifth time in eight games he’s hit that mark, but with him functioning as a misaligned receiver, there’s really not a path to mattering in redraft leagues.

Week 12 Running Back Data

• Kareem Hunt: 72.5% snap share, 33 touches
• Smith: 19.8% snap share, 4 touches
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 15.4% snap share. 7 touches

Smith has four carries over the past three weeks and has been unable to take advantage of Isiah Pacheco’s absence. The rookie’s role is more likely to trend backwards than forwards as the season concludes, and that makes him expendable in most situations.

Breece Hall | NYJ (vs ATL)

It’s Breece Hall or bust in New York these days. He accounted for 80% of their running back carries in Baltimore on Sunday and 33.8% of their total receiving yards.

Those are usage rates that mirror that one kid in high school who is clearly better than everyone, and to be honest, I’m not sure this situation is much different on that front.

Not for the Jets, at least. In the high school example, that kid is usually too good for the competition as a whole and capable of single-handedly lifting the team to high levels of success. The NFL doesn’t work that way, but this role is too good to sit on.

There’s no need to roster anyone else on this roster, but you can start Hall with a level of confidence, given his versatility and lack of competition for work.

Bucky Irving | TB (vs ARI)

Bucky Irving hasn’t played since September, but the Bucs seem to be counting on his return to come this week.

The talent is elite, and the matchup is far from prohibitive (Arizona has played four games against a preseason top 10 RB this season, and that player has cleared 18.5 PPR points in each of those contests), but we are left to guess at the workload.

Irving racked up 90 touches (71 carries and 19 catches on 19 targets) in his four games, recording a 20+ yard catch in each of the last three. When right, you could argue Tampa Bay’s RB1 has as high a ceiling outside of the top tier as anyone, and I hope that we get there sooner than later.

Remaining Schedule

• Sunday vs. Cardinals
• Week 14 vs. Saints
• Week 15 vs. Falcons
• Week 16 at Panthers
• Week 17 at Dolphins
• Week 18 vs. Panthers

Assuming there are no reports of a setback, I’m taking a cautious approach and using Irving as an RB2. I still think he can do damage with limited work, but the fact that the Bucs have a specialist running back to take responsibilities off of Irving’s plate in a variety of ways (Rachaad White via targets and Sean Tucker carries) is worrisome.

I’m expecting 13-15 touches in his return to action, and if you roster Irving because you felt he was worthy of a mid-second pick this summer, that is likely enough for him to hit your lineup.

Chase Brown | CIN (at BAL)

No player better symbolizes the 2025 regular season than Chase Brown.

He made a late push during draft season as one of the running backs that could build on late 2024 success and break into first-round value this year, but those hopes were all but dashed during the brutal first weeks of the season.

With a level of professionalism under center, however, that’s changed. Brown has picked up over 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight games and has been able to bust loose for a 20+ yard gain in each of those contests.

The scoring equity has remained low, however, with Joe Flacco counting on his star receivers to do the heavy lifting in that regard (Brown scored in Week 1 and has scored in just one game since).

I hope that we see that change with Joe Burrow back (11 TDs last season). Even if that doesn’t materialize right away, the 19+ touches that Brown has seen in back-to-back-to-back games should stick.

I’ve got this Baltimore matchup as neutral, and with this game expected to see plenty of scoring drives, Brown carries with him top 10 upside into Week 13.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (vs DEN)

We can argue about whether the RB1 role in Washington holds enough value to matter, but it does appear that we have a chance at the top of the depth chart, and Chris Rodriguez profiles as the lead back for the remainder of 2025.

In Madrid, C-Rod ran for 79 yards on 15 carries, and he matched the touch count of Jacory Corskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols combined. I think we can project the plurality of touches going this direction for the final month of the season without much hesitation.

The issue, of course, is determining if we care about this backfield, and my reflex is “no” in anything but the most advantageous of matchups, something that obviously isn’t the case this weekend.

As the lead man, Croskey-Merritt has two top-25 finishes this season. Rodriguez has one target this season, and as a part of a below-average offense, the odds of getting bailed out by a touchdown are low.

Rodriguez is my top-ranked Washington RB this week and moving forward, but considering him as anything other than a low-end flex play isn’t wise.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (at CLE)

The 49ers wasted no time in telling us that Monday was going to be the Christian McCaffrey show against his former team, and that’s typically good for business.

On the first drive, he touched the ball nine times, tying for the most in the first nine minutes of a game this season (also: Jahmyr Gibbs, Week 6).

For the season, he has 10 more receptions than any other running back has. He’s simply on a different level in terms of usage, and that has allowed him to overcome the rushing inefficiencies that have plagued him all season long.

How Special Is Christian McCaffrey https://t.co/IkhjGTcV1y

— John Chapman (@JL_Chapman) November 26, 2025

CMC has both a 15+ yard run and catch in two straight and three of his past four games. The talent was never a question, and as long as he’s on the field, his floor is the highest in the sport.

The only intrigue left in this profile is if he’ll hit 1,000 rushing yards (current: 796) or 1,000 receiving yards (current: 785) first.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs LAR)

Chuba Hubbard was popping up on my TV more on Monday night than I expected. He got a draw on third-and-long on the first drive and caught a dump-off red zone pass in the second quarter, usage that caught me off guard a bit, given the trajectory of this backfield.

He finished with a 34.9% snap share, so it’s not a full-blown committee, but I do think the roles have been ironed out.

Snap Breakdown

• First and Second Downs: Rico Dowdle leads Hubbard 26-10
• Third Down: Hubbard leads Dowdle 5-2

He’s the complimentary third-down back, and while that role in an offense like this isn’t enough to demand he be rostered, it does subtract some from Dowdle’s ceiling case, especially if you, like me, believe that Carolina is playing from behind for the majority of this game.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (at PHI)

D’Andre Swift (hip) wasn’t on Chicago’s final injury report heading into Week 12, and I almost wish that wasn’t the case.

Not that I’m rooting for an injury, I’d never do that, but if there was a lingering injury to consider, we could explain away the concerning backfield splits that came to pass against the Steelers.

Week 12 RB Data

• Kyle Monangai: 55.7% snap share, 12 touches (four in the red zone)
• Swift: 42.6% snap share, 9 touches (one in the red zone)

Well, this isn’t good.

Ben Johnson moved on from Swift while in Detroit, and it is looking more and more like he wants to do the same in Chicago. Swift has earned no more than two targets in four of his past five games, so if the rushing equity is working away from him, there’s not much to like in this profile.

It was only one week, and this Eagles defense can create the desire to get tricky, something that the veteran is theoretically better equipped to handle than a seventh-round rookie. I have Swift ranked four spots higher than Monangai entering Week 13’s Black Friday matchup, understanding that the hierarchy of this backfield could flip before their huge game in Lambeau next weekend.

David Montgomery | DET (vs GB)

This backfield has been labeled as “Sonic and Knuckles” in the past, and the combined production is nearly identical to where we sat at this time a year ago:

Jamhyr Gibbs + David Montgomery

• Through 12 weeks, 2025: 375.7 PPR points, 1,462 rushing yards
• Through 12 weeks, 2024: 386.5 PPR points, 1,518 rushing yards

But I think the plural ending might have to go on Jahmyr Gibbs’ part of the nickname moving forward because he’s the one doing the heavy lifting. Through 12 weeks last season, this was essentially a split, Gibbs holding a slim 180-169 edge in touches.

This season, however, he’s up 70 in the touch department and widening that gap weekly with Montgomery getting his hands on the ball a total of 15 times over the past two weeks.

We are now at “Sonics and Knuckle” as far as I’m concerned, and the latter is a long shot to reach fantasy lineups at this point (his last 20+ yard run came in Week 3). His experience and savvy have a role in this offense, but not in the fantasy space: every backfield touch that doesn’t go to Gibbs feels like a win for the defense, and Dan Campbell is not one to shy away from leaning hard into what he believes.

De’Von Achane | MIA (vs NO)

De’Von Achane’s name wasn’t in the top tier this summer when breaking down the position, and that needs to be rectified ahead of 2026.

With eight RB1 finishes this season, a year in which Miami has underachieved as a team, Achane has been phenomenal, and it wouldn’t be hard to argue that next season could be even better.

• Achane, career: 18.6 PPG, +19.7%, 1.16 PPR points per touch
• Carolina Christian McCaffrey: 22.2 PPG, +12.4%, 1.13 PPR points per touch

Yes, that is what we are looking at. He’s a Tier 1 running back until otherwise noted, and it’ll be close to impossible to overpay for his services next season.

Derrick Henry | BAL (vs CIN)

Derrick Henry punched in two short touchdowns against the Jets last week, but 3.0 yards per carry?

Lamar Jackson hasn’t shown the same upside with his legs, and I think that’s condensing the defensive attention to the middle of the field. Realistically, we can’t complain: Henry has 18+ carries in six straight games, and you’re playing that profile this time of year without a second thought.

I love that he’s caught multiple passes in three straight (one such game this season prior). If we can get that to sustain OR the rushing efficiency to be more consistent, I think we are looking at a top 10 back over the next few weeks (two Bengal games and the Steelers on extended rest next week).

You’ll be starting him in the fantasy playoffs, but matchups against the Patriots and Packers could prove to be a monster problem.

Devin Neal | NO (at MIA)

The touch distribution in New Orleans this week is about as hard to nail down as any situation in the league. We saw them load up Taysom Hill with largely ineffective work last week after Alvin Kamara departed, and that could happen again in this spot. This game is, theoretically, winnable.

Or maybe they cut Tyler Shough loose and ask him to showcase the growth he’s made during the season.

Or maybe they want to get a peek at what Devin Neal can do.

The latter option is why I think you can flex him in deeper formats. This team lacks options, and their motivation is for the future, so why not get a look at the rookie out of Kansas?

We saw him carry the rock over 200 times and catch 20+ passes in each of his final two collegiate seasons, so maybe there is a fantasy-friendly profile if given the opportunity.

He’s far from a must-start, but with the Saints more concerned about 2026 than 2025 at this point, Neal should be on the back ends of rosters with the thought being that you might walk into a 15+ touch role free of charge.

Devin Singletary | NYG (at NE)

Devin Singletary holds a role in this offense that can be productive in the right spot. I just don’t think this is anything close to the right spot.

He’s a grinding back that has the inside track to early down and red zone work. At face value, that’s encouraging, but with a sub-20 implied point total this week against arguably the best run defense in the league, you’re grasping for straws.

Singletary offers little upside per carry (none of his 74 rush attempts this season have gained even 15 yards), and with just one target against 30 carries over the past two weeks, he’s very unlikely to bail you out with work in the passing game.

I’m aware New England struggled against Chase Brown on the ground last week. If you want that single data point to weigh heavier than what we collected during the first 11 weeks of the season, go nuts.

If you like fantasy points, that’s not the decision I’d be making.

Dylan Sampson | CLE (vs SF)

Dylan Sampson’s speed was on full display as he took a screen pass 66 yards to the house against the Raiders week, making him the answer to an inevitable trivia question at some point as to who was the recipient of Shedeur Sanders’ first touchdown pass.

The agility is nothing new and was something we saw before Quinshon Judkins got his contract situation resolved early in this season.

That said, just because he scored and picked up usage after Judkins got dinged up last week doesn’t mean he’s ready to carve out a niche in this offense, provided that their RB1 is healthy.

Before last week, he hadn’t reached four carries in a game with Judkins active and was spotty at best with the passing game usage (no more than one target five times in an eight-game stretch).

There is some contingent work to chase here if Judkins were to be sidelined, but without that knowledge, Sampson isn’t a top 40 running back for me. This offense is struggling to move the ball, which makes a gadget-type player like this a long shot to deliver any level of value.

Emanuel Wilson | GB (at DET)

Emanuel Wilson touched the ball on each of Green Bay’s first two offensive snaps last week as the team made it clear that they weren’t going to adjust much from the script they’ve followed with Josh Jacobs active.

It worked.

And now it’s over.

At no point has this team shown an interest in a committee approach, and even if you want to guess at some split duties with Jacobs coming off an injury, he’s still going to project for the valuable work in close.

Personally, I view Wilson’s 30 touches on Sunday as more damning on the Jordan Love side of the equation than anything else, but it is good to know that the team is confident in their RB2. Wilson needs to be held in all formats due to the potential for this injury to linger/limit/sideline Jacobs. Still, I think you’re far too optimistic if you are counting on this offense supporting two players at the position.

Isiah Pacheco | KC (at DAL)

We haven’t seen Isiah Pacheco (knee) since Week 8, but he was practicing in a limited capacity last week and is trending toward a return to action.

It’s great to see some optimism in this situation, but I think fantasy managers are going to have to get proof of life before feeling a pull to flex any part of this committee.

Things were trending in the direction of Pacheco before the injury (12+ carries in three straight games after not clearing 10 in any of Kansas City’s first five games) and while I’d bet on him leading this backfield in work for the remainder of the season, it took over a month for him to look like the RB1 in this offense and that has me thinking he needs at least one ramp up game.

We know that Kareem Hunt carries the touchdown equity, even when this backfield is at full strength, and that creates a low floor. I like this matchup enough to flex Pacheco in deeper formats, but he’s far from a must-play.

J.K. Dobbins | DEN (at WAS)

A foot injury has landed J.K. Dobbins on IR and will likely end his fantasy season.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for managers, as he’s been a stable source of work all season, but you failed to build your roster properly if you were banking on a full season from the oft-injured running back.

Dobbins was drafted in 2020 and has played 47 career games (of a possible 101 regular-season games when this season ends). Use this as a reminder that you can NEVER have too much depth at the position, especially as the season nears its conclusion. This is the RJ Harvey show moving forward, and if you want to take a flier, Jaleel McLaughlin is worth a look for those struggling to build out their RB room.

Sean Payton is likely to keep multiple backs in the rotation, and while I think you’re drawing thin with McLaughlin, he figures to be on the field some and now carries a reasonable amount of contingent value.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (vs DEN)

As it turns out, seventh-round rookies have a hard time sustaining success at the professional level.

Who knew?

That job gets even more difficult when you are the talk of the summer and a role falls into your lap. Those who are feeling let down by the artist known as Bill are victims of unrealistic expectations, not a player who is underachieving.

Mid-October was the last time he ran for 40 yards in a game, and that’s happened more recently than the last time he caught multiple passes. He might one day turn into a grinding back that we turn to for flex value as part of a committee. Still, in this situation, he’s a bit overmatched, and now that he’s losing work, I’m not comfortable playing him in any capacity.

Washington’s season isn’t playing out how they had hoped, and they are best served to limit the tread on the tires of Croskey-Merritt at this point. I still think he gets 9-12 touches, and maybe that’s all you need, but with limitations in terms of versatility and scoring equity, he doesn’t project as a usable piece in most situations.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs GB)

Well, congratulations on having a red-hot fantasy team that you feel better about today than you did a month ago.

Jahmyr Gibbs was playing on a different speed than the Giants last week (14.6 yards per carry on 15 attempts) and ran in multiple scores for the third time in five weeks.

Add in an 87.3% catch rate for the season and being the apple of Dan Campbell’s eye in terms of design, it’s easy to see a path in which Gibbs carries you to the promised land.

This matchup is a little more prohibitive than the one he exploited last week, and at a minimum, the Packers are familiar with Detroit’s personnel. That doesn’t mean they can stop him (he caught all 10 of his passes against them in Week 1, a dominating Green Bay victory that they were thrilled with how they defended him), but it does give you the excuse to avoid the Thanksgiving DFS chalk, maybe.

Gibbs’ name is on the short list for 1.01 options in August, and he currently has more support.

James Cook | BUF (at PIT)

On Thursday night, James Cook took his third carry 45 yards to the house against a strong Texans defense, fueling his fifth 100-yard rushing performance of the season.

There wasn’t much to write home about for this offense after that splash play, but a third straight game with at least three receptions was encouraging (three such games for the entire season prior).

For the season, Cook has more 10+ yard runs than times stuck at or behind the line of scrimmage. He continues to bring this team balance, and while Josh Allen is obviously the most important piece of this offense, I think what Cook brings to the table is underrated by most.

He’s not a Tier 1 running back, but he is firmly a top 10 guy in any matchup. The Steelers shut down Jonathan Taylor in Week 9, and that might come to mind when evaluating this matchup, but Pittsburgh has been up-and-down all season, and I have no hesitation in labeling Cook as an RB1 in this spot. There are only three games in the Sunday afternoon timeslot this week, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Buffalo’s RB1 steals the show.

Javonte Williams | DAL (vs KC)

Javonte Williams totaled 101 yards in the comeback win over the Eagles last week, and I was impressed by Dallas’ commitment to him in a game where they trailed 21-0.

He’s carried the ball 20+ times in consecutive weeks, and while the passing game role leaves plenty to be desired (33 receiving yards since October 1), the quality of looks he is getting on the ground more than makes up for that.

Yes, he was stopped on the goal line last week in a wildcat design, and a penalty on the next play wiped out his TD equity on that drive, but this is a trust-the-process situation.

Williams has multiple red zone touches in every single game this season and at least four such looks in five straight. The Chiefs are the fifth-best post-contact run defense in the league and are certainly a challenge, but with a 15-18 touch game all but locked in, there’s no way to hold Williams out of your lineup this week.

He’s my RB19, checking in just behind a pair of rookies in Ashton Jeanty and RJ Harvey.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs BUF)

Do we have a situation here?

Jaylen Warren’s ankle injury wasn’t bothering him enough to be listed on Pittsburgh’s final injury report last week, so it was very concerning to see Kenneth Gainwell play 42% of the snaps last week, nearly match him in touches (18-16 in favor of Warren), and score 5.4 more PPR points in Chicago.

Heck, the only reason the fantasy production was even that close was that a 55-yard Gainwell run ended at the one-yard line, and Warren finished the drive off.

In any other matchup, I’d be panicking in a significant way: Gainwell was objectively the much better player last week, and that is concerning for those who have been riding Warren as their set-it-and-forget-it RB2. But, Warren did hold a 9-5 touch edge on first downs and an 8-4 advantage when Pittsburgh was tied or ahead.

I’m reading this still as Warren’s backfield, though obviously with far less confidence than I had this time last week. That default is valuable against maybe the worst run defense in the NFL, as it suggests that he’ll get the first crack at producing in this plus spot.

If he has the kind of success I think he can have in the early going, Mike Tomlin is likely to stick with him and let him deliver the top 15-ish numbers we’ve come to expect.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (vs DEN)

The Washington backfield is in flux, but it would appear that Jeremy McNichols isn’t in the mix for an extended run.

The soon-to-be 30-year-old has yet to be trusted with more than six touches in a game this season and is essentially a dead giveaway when on the field. This season, 36.6% of his touches have come through the air, and with neither of the RBs ahead of him on the depth chart showing any versatility, that role is here to stay.

It’s nice to have a niche, but this offense isn’t built to funnel looks that way in a meaningful way, and that’s why you don’t need to burn a roster spot on McNichols at this point in the season.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs HOU)

Jonathan Taylor broke loose for a 27-yard run last week against the Chiefs. Still, his other 17 touches netted just 39 yards, a lack of efficiency that seemed borderline impossible after watching him put on a show in Berlin (286 yards and three scores on 35 touches against the Falcons).

We saw the Steelers sell out to stop JT back in Week 9 (14 carries for 45 yards) in their upset win, and this figures to be a theme as we approach the postseason: teams are going to ask Daniel Jones to beat them.

Stopping Taylor, of course, is easier said than done. His post-contact numbers are historically good and up 59% from what he posted last season. It takes a special defense to execute the “stop Taylor at all costs” plan, and the Texans are on the short list of units that could pull it off.

They are the seventh-best unit at getting to the running back before he gets going downhill, and that’ll be the plan this week. If they can execute, Taylor will underwhelm, but I’m never going to project an outright slowing of the most productive back in the game. Even in a tough spot, JT is a tier 1 option in my eyes.

Jordan Mason | MIN (at SEA)

If this Minnesota offense was functioning at even a league-average level, I could talk myself into Jordan Mason being a low-end flex play due to my belief that he’s likely to handle the bulk of the short-yardage opportunities, but that’s not even close to being the case right now.

Mason has failed to clear 10 carries in five straight contests and has just three targets over that stretch. If you’re rostering him, you’re hoping for a cheap touchdown from a team that hasn’t reached 20 points in a game once during their current losing streak.

You can do better.

To make matters worse, Mason was stuffed on a goal-line carry last week in Lambeau: chasing a touchdown is dangerous in a perfect situation, and this is far from that with J.J. McCarthy struggling.

Josh Jacobs | GB (at DET)

It technically came down to the wire last week. Still, it always seemed likely that Josh Jacobs would miss Week 12, with the hope being that he can return from this knee injury on Thanksgiving, benefit from the mini bye that Green Bay has after that, and be fine for the duration of the Packers’ season.

This injury is said to be more tender than structural, which should have you operating with optimism both this week and moving forward. Jacobs is putting together a new identical profile that he gave us last season, and there’s little reason to expect anything different in this spot, where the Packers are likely to prioritize keeping Jared Goff and Company off the field.

These teams opened the season in Lambeau, and Jacobs touched the ball 20 times (70 yards and a rushing touchdown), something I think you can feel about getting to on Turkey Day. The Lions have been a bottom-10 red zone defense all season long, so even if you have some efficiency concerns, the touchdown equity is more than enough to land Jacobs inside of your top 15 at the position, even after the DNP.

Kareem Hunt | KC (at DAL)

Was I impressed with Kareem Hunt on a per-touch basis last weekend against the Colts?

Not really.

For the third week in a row, he saw his explosive run percentage decline, and he wasn’t exactly a key cog in the passing attack (sixth in targets). However, Patrick Mahomes did put the ball in his stomach 30 times, and that’s close to a foolproof plan when it comes to paying the fantasy bills.

In the overtime win, seven of his 33 touches came in the red zone, and that’s the critical part. With Isiah Pacheco coming back, the volume isn’t going to be close to what it was last week. This backfield was trending in Pacheco’s favor before the injury, and that could well prove to be the case moving forward. Still, if Hunt continues to handle the valuable touches, he’ll be inside the circle of trust for PPR flex purposes.

This game is expected to total 52.5 points, which means plenty of scoring opportunities for all involved. I have similar touch projections with Hunt holding far greater TD equity, a thought process that has me ranking Hunt 10 spots ahead of Pacheco and sitting as a low-end RB2.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (vs BUF)

The snaps (49.3% for Jaylen Warren and 42% for Kenneth Gainwell) and touches (18-16 in favor of Warren) suggest that Pittsburgh’s backfield was a dead split last week, and while that’s technically true, it was Gainwell who looked far superior.

Was it a once-a-week situation? Was this the result of Warren’s ankle injury, or was it more prohibitive than reported?

There are a few moving pieces, and that’s why I’m acting slowly on this situation, keeping Warren as an RB2 in an elite matchup and Gainwell more as a middling flex. Still, their positioning in my ranking could certainly flip after this week if we see the game plan tilt in Gainwell’s favor.

He handled their first run of Week 12, and the production swings wildly in his favor if he’s not tackled at the one on a 55-yard sprint (Warren finished the drive with a TD plunge).

This is a low-octane offense, and that carries with it plenty of concerns in a matchup like this, but both of these backs are versatile, and that’s why I think this is a hinge game in terms of how we sort out this situation for the final month of the fantasy season.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs MIN)

A glute injury led to Kenneth Walker III popping up on the injury report late last week. Mike Macdonald downplayed the absence in practice as “precautionary,” and that was proven accurate as he picked up 101 total yards on just 14 touches against the Titans.

Naturally, he didn’t score, but that’s nothing new. In 11 games this season, he has just 10 touches (all rushes) inside the opponents’ 10-yard line despite playing for an offense that moves the ball weekly.

This backfield is his from a snap share point of view (63.8% over Zach Charbonnet’s 29.8% last week), but my leagues reward touchdowns more than snaps, and the Seahawks seem unwilling to allow him to marry the two.

Walker is always going to grade out ahead of Charbonnet for me, and in this intriguing matchup against an aggressive defense where one missed tackle could result in a double-digit point play, Walker sits as my RB20.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (vs LV)

For as long as Omarion Hampton is out, Kimani Vidal is worthy of our attention, but it’s more of wanting access to volume than anything.

Before the blowout loss in Jacksonville, the second-year back was handling 72.9%of Los Angeles’ running back touches over a three-game sample, a role I’m penciling in until they get their starter back on the field.

Vidal did suffer a high injury before the bye, and that at least requires our attention. I’m assuming that the off week is enough on that front, and against a bottom-5 run defense in terms of success rate, that gives him an outside chance to return top-12 value.

I’m not ranking him for that ceiling, but he’s in my top 20.

Kyle Monangai | CHI (at PHI)

The gap is closing, and I may be overly optimistic to say it hasn’t closed completely yet.

Kyle Monangai held a 21-7 snap edge over D’Andre Swift week when in enemy territory, and his usage was pretty clearly part of Ben Johnson’s pregame plan (7-4 snap edge over Swift in the first quarter after the incumbent had a 7-2 first quarter edge in Week 11).

My lone hesitation here is that Swift profiles as the better pass-catching bet, and we know that this offense would prefer to open up a bit. He hasn’t been used in that sense lately (one catch over the past two weeks), but I’m willing to give him one more bite at the apple to carve out a meaningful role that features maybe 11-13 carries and a handful of targets.

Monangai seems to have the red zone role nailed down (4-1 touch edge in that regard last season), and if we are going to get 15+ touches from him, even in a difficult matchup, that is a flex-worthy role this week and the rest of the way.

Kyren Williams | LAR (at CAR)

Kyren Williams runs hard (gain rate over 90% in two of his past three games and four times this season). Still, with limited explosion (this piece printed on the second anniversary of his last 35+ yard gain) and just four catches over his past four games, there’s more of a floor to worry about than there is a ceiling to chase.

That’s not to say you bench him, but I’m not thrilled about chasing a touchdown given his cost in the DFS streets. Blake Corum is being used to get Williams a blow with a little more regularity this season than last, and that lowers the projection by enough to land him outside of my top 12 this week.

Nick Chubb | HOU (at IND)

Who doesn’t love Nick Chubb?

We all do. He’s an easy player to root for, but we can safely do it from a distance with no fantasy investment.

The veteran running back doesn’t have a carry gaining more than nine yards in five of his past six games, and the six carries he got on Thursday night felt forced.

Woody Marks is the future of this backfield, and the future is now. I assume that Chubb will continue to be responsible for a handful of carries moving forward (his betting line entering last week was 22.5 rushing yards), and they might even be essential touches for Houston. Still, they aren’t nearly enough for our purposes.

Chubb hasn’t been worthy of a roster spot for a month: move on and get some level of upside to round out your roster instead.

Ollie Gordon II | MIA (vs NO)

The Dolphins aren’t going anywhere this season and appear to be interested in getting a better look at Ollie Gordon, their sixth-round selection in April, who weighs 225 pounds, but also averaged 5.4 yards per carry during his collegiate career.

He was on the field for 38.9% of Miami’s snaps in Week 11, a mark that was a season high, and he was cashed in a short TD plunge in the process. This is an interesting player, but not an interesting situation. The offensive environment isn’t great, and the touch floor is too low to give him a look from a standalone perspective.

I think, in 2026, we could be looking at Gordon being Tyler Allgeier to De’Von Achane’s Bijan Robinson. If the surrounding environment is more productive, maybe he elevates into the low-end flex conversation, but looking at this week and the rest of this season, Gordon is a handcuff and nothing more.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (vs SF)

There are 34 running backs with at least 100 carries this season, and 32 of them are at least league average on a higher percentage of carries before contact than Quinshon Judkins.

The only RB worse in this category is Ashton Jeanty, his opponent last week in the thrilling 24-10 win at Vegas.

The two of them, two well-thought-of rookies, rushed 33 times for 97 yards. Neither had anywhere to run for most of the day, but because Judkins happened to get a pair of Wild Cat snaps on the doorstep, he scored twice and gave you enough to justify starting him.

I’m not at all comfortable in banking on this offense, and that has Judkins sitting outside of my top 20 for the week. I can’t go much lower than that based on the volume (16+ carries in three straight and seven of his past nine), but relying on touchdowns is dangerous at best when tethered to this offense. With zero catches in consecutive games, there aren’t many ways for Cleveland’s bellcow to post a considerable number.

Rachaad White | TB (vs ARI)

Rachaad White is a specialist who is trending in the wrong direction.

Reports seem to be pointing in the right direction for Bucky Irving, and with Sean Tucker working his way into work over the past two weeks, how many touches are realistically available for a player who averages 3.8 yards per carry for his career?

Not much.

He had 31 touches in September (four games), and that’s on the high end of what I’d expect when this backfield is at full strength. You’re holding because of the health question marks, but understanding that your days of flexing White are limited, if not already gone.

Ray Davis | BUF (at PIT)

Ray Davis hasn’t touched the ball in consecutive games and hasn’t finished with positive yards from scrimmage in a game this month.

It’s a solid strategy to round out your roster with handcuff types like this if you can sit a player, but not everyone has that luxury as the playoff push heats up. If you’re cycling through weekly flex options, Davis is the type of player you can cut: you’re not considering him this week, and for those in desperate times, I’d rather take a player like teammate Gabe Davis.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs NYG)

I’m not exactly sure who asked for this sequence against one of the most vulnerable defenses in the NFL, but this is how the first drive of the second half went for the Patriots last week in Cincinnati after a DPI put them at the five-yard line:

• Incomplete pass
• TreVeyon Henderson, 4-yard run
• Incomplete pass
• DPI, ball placed on the one-yard line
• Terrell Jennings, no gain
• OPI, ball on the 11-yard line
• Completion down to the one-yard line
• Rhamondre Stevenson, no gain
• Rhamondre Stevenson, no gain (turnover on downs)

I hate talking in absolutes, but this absolutely shouldn’t happen.

Stevenson was given one touch for every three that went to Henderson last week in his return from the toe injury. With his seven opportunities picking up 10 yards, I can’t imagine that he’s in line to see his workload increase in a major way as the Pats chase the AFC’s top seed.

If you roster Stevenson, I’d hold for now, understanding that this coaching staff showed unconditional love toward him earlier in this season. If this is the Henderson show again on Monday night, and he exits that contest healthy, I think you can cut ties ahead of the Week 14 bye if the roster spot holds value to you.

If not, the schedule isn’t prohibitive moving forward, but if he’s not projecting for more than 6-10 touches, he’s not going to rank as a top 30 play, no matter the matchup.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (vs LAR)

Rico Dowdle relied on the pass game (four catches for 36 yards) for his production on Monday night to offset a low-volume game on the ground (six carries) due to the game script.

He was able to save your bacon last week, but how sustainable is it?

Last week, Chuba Hubbard was used as the third-down back and ran a route on 73.3% of his snaps. I don’t think he is much of a threat to Dowdle in the traditional sense, but the team made it clear last week that Hubbard is a threat to soak up usage in the passing game, something that we should see plenty of this week with the Panthers labeled as a double-digit underdog.

This week, I view Dowdle as very similar to Quinshon Judkins, and that’s a low-end RB2 that you’re playing for the floor more than the ceiling.

RJ Harvey | DEN (at WAS)

I’m willing to write off Week 11 and move forward with the high levels of optimism/excitement we had for RJ Harvey upon first learning that the role was his (JK Dobbins’ foot injury has him sitting on IR).

Against the Chiefs, he ran for just 30 yards on 11 carries and ceded the short touchdown to Jaleel McLaughlin. Both running backs got work on the first drive of the game, and Denver landed a season-defining upset over the divisional rival. It wasn’t a great first impression for Harvey as the lead, but I think that game was unique in that the Broncos treated it like a playoff game and didn’t want the rookie to feel too much pressure with the expanded role.

Maybe I’m wrong.

Sean Payton likes versatility, and I think the division of carries is here to stay, but I do think Harvey is the clear RB1. I expect, with a week off to design to his strengths, we’ll see more of a commitment to him in this favorable spot.

Harvey has multiple receptions in seven of his past nine games, and asking him to pair a 13-16 carry role with that baseline is reasonable given the up-and-down nature of this passing game.

If that’s the role he assumes, we are talking about a safe RB2 with plenty of upside for more. The Commanders have a below-average defense in terms of both pre- and post-contact numbers in the run game to opposing running backs, a matchup that gives this team a good chance to build the confidence of their first year back.

Dobbins, a veteran with a resume filled with injuries, was being handed the ball 15.3 times per game. With time, I’d assume that Harvey fills a similar role sooner than later and works into lineup lock status by the time the fantasy postseason is upon us.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs CHI)

I like the “Stay Calm Barkley” tag line on those commercials, but that’s certainly not a sentiment that his fantasy managers are feeling.

The season highs in catches (seven) and targets (eight) last week in Dallas shouldn’t be overlooked, but his rushing production over the past three weeks is downright disturbing.

Saquon Barkley Rushing Ranks, Weeks 10-12 (54 qualifiers)

• 41st in yards per carry before contact
• 42nd in yards per carry after contact
• 52nd in first down rate (ahead of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Tony Pollard)

He also lost an impactful fumble and generally isn’t running with the same expectation that he was a year ago. During the Super Bowl run, he was running with the intent to hit his head on the goal post, but this year, there’s more Kenneth Walker-itis in play, where he is trying to finesse his way to gains.

This is a great spot to get right, and I expect him to do so. The usage is intact, and if Jalen Hurts is going to continue to feature his top two receivers deep down the field, a stable run game would unlock this offense in a way they very much need.

You can get your grill at a discount on Black Friday. I’ll be settling in and hoping to cash in on the discounted opinion of him: Barkley is my RB6 this week.

Sean Tucker | TB (vs ARI)

Sean Tucker predictably came back to earth (46 yards on 13 touches) against the Rams after exposing the Bills in Week 11 (140 yards and three touchdowns), and is at risk of disappearing altogether with Bucky Irving trending in a strong direction health-wise.

Last week, even after the monster performance, Tucker was out-snapped 39-26 by Rachaad White. He did out-touch the specialist 13-8, but it’s clear that he is on the wrong side of a committee situation when Irving is out and likely left fending for scraps when this backfield is whole.

This time of year, you’re cycling through running backs and trying to land on an expanded role. In that vein, I’m not cutting ties with Tucker yet because he plays behind an RB1 who hasn’t yet proven his health, but if Irving avoids a setback, Tucker will be on the Week 14 cut list.

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs JAX)

Split backfields are hard enough to navigate in the best of circumstances. The Seahawks are the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL (29.5 PPG), and we are fit-to-be-tied when it comes to the weekly either, neither, or both evaluation of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

Now imagine those same concerns, but attached to an offense that averages 15.2 PPG, the third-fewest.

Week 12 RB Usage

• Tony Pollard: 47.1% snaps, 15 touches, 8.1 points (4-1 in RZ snaps)
• Tyjae Spears: 35.3% snaps, 7 touches, 6.5 points

I’ve had Spears over Pollard for a few weeks now, and that’s the case for this week as well. In an average system, these profiles would project in a very similar fashion, and I’d lean toward the Pollard side, but with scoring opportunities limited at best, give me the versatility of the secondary back.

That’s not to say that Pollard can’t catch the ball, but his strength compared to Spears is the rushing volume, and I just don’t find those attempts to be all that impactful. Over the past two weeks, Pollard has picked up 42 yards on 21 carries with a long of seven yards.

The Jags haven’t allowed a running back to reach 14 PPR points in four of their past six games, and I’m expecting them to extend that to five of seven.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at TEN)

A 15-yard touchdown reception by Travis Etienne in the first quarter last week helped quiet the whispers about a split backfield, and he finished the week with 116 all-purpose yards in one of his better performances of the season.

The Jags are in the thick of the playoff race and with the game scripted expected to tilt in their favor this week, we should feel good about banking on another 16-18 carries and 2-4 targets from their RB1.

Etienne has eight top-20 finishes at the position this season, a status that he has held for each of the past four weeks. Draft picks like Jahmy Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba get highlighted because of the cartoonish numbers they put up, but hitting on a mid-round selection at the level that you have with Etienne is also a critical component to winning your league.

Hat tip to you for the selection: you should be sitting pretty over the next few weeks (before Jacksonville has to travel to Denver in Week 16).

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (vs NYG)

TreVeyon Henderson got the first carry of last week, a notable development with Rhamondre Stevenson back. In fact, the rookie handled all four of New England’s rush attempts on the first drive (11 yards).

Terrell Jennings did get a carry on the doorstep, and while he was stuffed, it was still annoying. All things considered, I’m more encouraged by usage patterns than disappointed by the bottom line.

Week 12 RB1 Split

• Henderson: 64.2% snaps, 21 touches, 11.1 points
• Stevenson: 31.3% snaps, 7 touches, 2.0 points

If we are going to get three Henderson touches for every one from Stevenson, I’m here to tell you that a deep playoff run is in your future. The G-Men just got lit up by Jahmyr Gibbs, and they’ve allowed the lead runner on the opposing team to produce above his season average in 10 of 12 games this season.

Add in the fact that this is a limited defense playing for a 13th consecutive week, and this has the makings of a top 10 week.

Trey Benson | ARI (at TB)

Trey Benson entered the second half of last week with the potential to return from his knee injury, and while he was ultimately unable to give it a go against the Jags, the forward progress is obviously a good sign.

The injury Emari Demercado suffered in Week 11 was labeled as a high-ankle sprain, and while the team hasn’t put a timeline on this situation, it’s tough to find a reason as to why the team would bring a compromised version of him back.

No one in this backfield has stepped up in the absence of their RB1, and that has me cautiously optimistic that we are looking at a reasonably safe role once Benson is deemed healthy.

What that means in a tough matchup like this can be debated, but with 13-16 touches not all that easy to find, I’m playing Benson unless I truly have depth at the position.

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs JAX)

Annually, we get these players that fantasy managers think more of than their real-world employers, and it’s frustrating.

There aren’t a ton of them this year, but Tyjae Spears is certainly on that list as the Titans either fear that he can’t handle extended work or won’t produce if given to it.

I think it almost has to be the former, since the latter is already happening by way of Tony Pollard.

We can complain about it all we want, but that’s not going to change anything. Spears has at least three catches in six straight, and if you think the Jags can take a lead, maybe there’s a path where he earns 5-7 targets to hit PPR lineups, but you’re drawing thin given the declining usage in the passing game (carry count over his past four games: 9-7-4-3).

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at NYJ)

The Falcons controlled things against the Saints last week (24-10 win, and the touchdown that New Orleans did muster came on the defensive side of the ball), and that allowed them to get Tyler Allgeier 12 carries, his most since Week 4.

The usage was nice if you were forced into playing him, but 3.7 yards per carry in a favorable spot was far from ideal.

Sadly, while not ideal, it’s essentially what he’s been. For the season, he’s picking up 3.6 yards per carry and has a total of eight receptions. Playing behind Bijan Robinson is one thing, but a lack of efficiency and versatility is another.

In theory, we could see a similar game script unfold this weekend, which puts Allgeier back on the low-end flex radar. However, I’d rather get creative at the receiver position if we are having that flex conversation (Andrei Iosivas and Jayden Higgins are darts I’d rather throw this week).

The run of favorable matchups comes to a screeching halt with the Seahawks coming to town next weekend, followed by a finishing kick featuring the Bucs, Cardinals, and Rams. It’s boring, but I still have Allgeier labeled as a backup whose value is 100% tied to the health of the man in front of him on the depth chart.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at NE)

Tyron Tracy out-carried Devin Singletary 20-14 in the overtime loss to the Lions last week, a nice boxscore difference, but not one that I’m too confident is predictive.

Tracy started and handled the first drive, but it was then Singletary for the second drive, before Tracy got the nod on drive three. This is a limited offense hamstrung by injuries, looking for a spark anywhere they can find it.

Even with him getting the start, Tracy trailed Singletary in carries 8-6 at halftime, a sign of just how fluid this sort of situation can be.

That said, he was responsible for all four of the RB targets last week, and I don’t think that’s a mistake. Tracy is a former receiver, and we saw some of that open-space ability on this 42-yard catch-and-run (though you could also credit the Lions with falling asleep at the wheel for that play).

If we are stacking up these profiles against one another, Singletary gets the slight edge in scoring equity, while Tracy figures to see the bulk of the routes run. In an average offense, those two roles would be close to even, but in an environment like this, I lean toward Tracy, understanding they will often be trailing and rarely in scoring positions.

That certainly projects to be the case against a Patriots defense that has muted run games all season, except for Chase Brown last week.

I’m flexing Tracy in PPR formats with the thought being that he has a very good chance to at least reach 10 PPR points in any given week.

Woody Marks | HOU (at IND)

I hate when people use this as a descriptor, because I don’t think it fits the mold as often as it’s used, but this is the rare case I’m on board with it.

Woody Marks has “juice”.

That’s a vague term that means something different to everyone, but in this instance, it’s night and day from him and Nick Chubb, something that the Texans seem to finally be on board with.

Against the pitiful Bills’ run defense, the rookie recorded a season-high 74 rush yards and out-touched Chubb 17-7, an advantage that seems more likely to grow than shrink for the remainder of the season.

We saw him excel in the passing game at USC last season (19.2% of his passes), and the C.J. Stroud version of this offense seemed more willing to leverage that skill. The starting QB has been hurt in or out of four straight, and Marks has a total of four receptions. He was a threat to catch 3-4 passes in the month before this Davis Mills experience, and if we can get back to that, there is top 15 production in this profile.

Until we marry the ground volume with the usage in the pass game, I’m ranking him closer to RB20 than RB10, but I’m open to the idea of adjusting that default rank if we get proof of that being the plan this weekend.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs MIN)

We’ve reached the holiday season, and we are still looking for the first time this season in which Zach Charbonnet has been held out of the end zone in consecutive games.

How crazy is that?

Kenneth Walker’s role continues to expand, and he looks the part (past three weeks: 5.0 yards per carry with seven catches on eight targets). Still, if you’re watching a ‘Hawks game, a high-leverage Charbonnet opportunity feels inevitable.

He has multiple red zone touches in nine of his 10 games up to this point, and his average touchdown length is a whopping three yards.

Walker is objectively more efficient and subjectively more fun, but chasing a touchdown from Charbonnet has largely been more profitable than waiting for the perimeter run from Walker that pays the bills.

The diminishing snap share is clearly a concern, but this team is committed to him holding a Tyler Allgeier-like role, and, as much as I like Walker’s upside, he’s no Bijan Robinson.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs CHI)

A.J. Brown has 15 catches on 21 targets over the past two weeks as the greasy wheel has gotten some grease. He scored on the first drive (his first end zone target since Week 3), and it looked like everything would fall into place. Still, the Eagles’ offense was quiet after the first stanza, and that resulted in a frustrating loss to an overmatched divisional opponent.

Philadelphia fans aren’t happy with the result, but managers Brown have to like the direction things are trending. The deep targets are part of his game and showcase his upside, but the fact that he has multiple catches behind the line of scrimmage in three straight games speaks to a dedication to getting him involved.

I will personally walk to the Eagles facility and hand deliver a DVD, VHS tape, thumb drive or whatever to Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo’s desk to show them this, so that they can run it with DeVonta Smith or AJ Brown pic.twitter.com/5lB02z5Bdr

— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) November 26, 2025

Tee Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chris Olave are among the heavily involved receivers who have torched the Bears this season, a trajectory Brown could follow should the Eagles elect to prioritize that pass (those receivers all cleared 26 PPR points).

Given how up-and-down this offense has been, I don’t think you really have to worry about game state. Philadelphia just blew a 21-0 lead against their most hated opponent, something that, to me at least, hints that they will have their foot on the gas for 60 minutes of every game for the remainder of the season.

Alec Pierce | IND (vs HOU)

Alec Pierce has an end zone target in consecutive games and a 26+ yard grab in six straight, but as the Daniel Jones profile trends down, Pierce’s ceiling/floor combination is at risk of cratering.

Even with Indianapolis Jones playing above his baseline for much of this season, this was the fourth time Pierce failed to reach three receptions. This is a nightmare matchup for the ceiling case (fourth fewest YPA on deep passes), and if the ceiling is a reach, the floor is far too low to trust.

I’ve got Pierce pegged as a leverage play in DFS on the main slate and nothing more. If he hits, great, but I don’t want my season-long team riding on a profile like this against the Texans if I can help it, unless I’m down big entering the weekend.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs GB)

Early on last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown forced a DPI in the end zone. I always hate those things when I have the receiver: not only do I not get points, I likely lose any chance to score because a rushing score is coming, which tilts the game in favor of that offense and pushes them one step closer to a run-centric script.

Yes, it’s loud inside my head when watching football.

Before I had time to dwell on all those negative thoughts, the Lions committed a penalty, got back to the 11-yard line, and threw a screen pass to their WR1.

Touchdown.

It was his ninth TD catch of the season and ended up being the fifth time in six games in which he earned at least 10 targets. During this run, he’s seen Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosions and duds, Jameson Williams’ usage peaks and valleys, and Dan Campbell going from being an observer to play caller.

Long story short, there’s nothing you can do to slow him down. St. Brown comes preloaded with a floor that ranks among the three best in the sport, and that’ll make him a surefire first-round pick next season.

The Packers have held him under 60 receiving yards in three straight meetings, and you could tell yourself that they have him figured out. That they have the blueprint.

I look at it as more of St. Brown gaining knowledge as to what won’t work and thus trending closer to what will.

This should be a fun one to open the holiday, though I think it’ll be far more fun for those with him rostered than those hoping those recent team-vs-player stats stick.

Brandon Aiyuk | SF (at CLE)

At this point, if there were good news, we would have heard it.

The Brandon Aiyuk (knee) timeline hasn’t been clear over the past month, and asking him to take the field is beginning to feel like a long shot, never mind proving to us that he is capable of posting usable numbers for an offense that has a handful of capable other options.

If he’s hanging out on your IR and you wouldn’t otherwise use the free roster spot, there’s no real reason to pivot. Still, outside of that situation, it’s time to admit that you’re never going to feel good about plugging him in this season, and that makes him cuttable in redraft formats.

He’s a 27-year-old in a great system with a pair of 75-1000-7 seasons on his resume: the asking price in 2026 will be interesting, and I’m going to go ahead and guess that I’ll be buying at a discount.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at TEN)

An ankle injury has kept Brian Thomas Jr. sidelined since he was banged up late in Week 9’s win in Vegas, and at this point, is it possible that his sitting out is saving you from yourself?

I know that’s the case for me.

He’s averaging 6.01 fewer PPR PPG this season than last, and he’s just never looked comfortable. As a rookie, he produced 22.3% above expectations, but this season, he sits at 15.8% below expectations.

The aDOT is up a touch and the slot rate down a little, but not nearly enough to explain away this dismal season. With a 50% catch rate when healthy, I think it’s plenty reasonable to want to see proof of concept before assuming that he’ll return from a near-month layoff with the magic production potion in hand.

The only thing concerning about this matchup is that the Jags could elect to run the ball at a high rate, and the last thing an inefficient receiver needs is a lack of work. If you’re in a position where you have to swing for the fences and we get word that Thomas will play, you can go this route and hope, but you have to understand that you’re betting against everything we’ve seen up to this point in 2025.

Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs SF)

The Browns’ passing attack wasn’t exactly impressive in Vegas over the weekend, as three long plays, one on a screen pass, accounted for 75.1% of their passing yards.

A stat like that typically includes a Cedric Tillman splash play, but it didn’t this time around, and that left those who tried to get cute with him in DFS or otherwise holding the bag.

You simply can’t go to this passing game. No exceptions.

In a great matchup, Cleveland converted just one-quarter of their third downs and stayed on the field for under 24 minutes. Tillman’s skill set is the type we target for streaming purposes, and this matchup isn’t an issue, but this offense isn’t built to put points on the board.

Feel free to cut ties here in favor of any secondary option on an above-average offense. Don’t overthink it.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (vs KC)

The drops from CeeDee Lamb are irritating at a high level. Still, his resume suggests we need not react to the momentary lapses in concentration (three drops last week against the Eagles, including one poised to be a go-ahead score).

George Pickens isn’t the WR1 in this offense, but his ability to earn high-value targets has lowered the floor of Lamb, if for no other reason than a big play to him gets this offense off the field in a way that wasn’t possible a year ago.

In comparing Lamb’s profile this year to last …

• aDOT: Up to 12.7 from 8.1
• Slot Usage: Down to 33.2% from 48.3%

He’s effectively traded in highly efficient targets for ones with more variance attached to them.

For a talent like this, which wouldn’t usually bother me, the target share is naturally lower due to Pickens, which is lowering expectations for managers.

You’re not doing anything about it, but I wanted you to feel heard. This isn’t the ace you drafted, and I’m not sure we see that change (Week 5 was the last time a receiver scored 15 PPR points against the Chiefs).

For what it’s worth, I still prefer Lamb to Pickens, even after the latter looked like the more comfortable player in last week’s win over the Eagles.

Chimere Dike | TEN (vs JAX)

In the first half of a near-impossible matchup last week with the Seahawks, Chimere Dike led the Titans in catches, targets, and receiving yards.

Gunner Helm caught him in those categories by the end of the game, but a 90-yard punt return for a score complemented his TD reception and made him the only Titan to hit our radar.

The gains Cam Ward is making aren’t huge, and they aren’t happening fast, but they are happening, and that makes this offense an interesting evaluation for 2026.

As for this week and the remainder of this season, there’s nothing that interests me.

Chris Godwin | TB (vs ARI)

Chris Godwin (fibula) returned to action last week, and while he ranked sixth on the team in routes run (18), he did earn four targets and didn’t suffer a setback.

I saw enough for me to believe that Godwin is deserving of a roster spot in all leagues, but with Baker Mayfield banged up and a depth chart left to navigate, he’s not tempting to click into starting lineups at this point.

If you’re stashing the veteran receiver, it’s with the hope that he is used as a regular when your fantasy playoffs kick off.

• Week 15 vs. Falcons
• Week 16 at Panthers
• Week 17 at Dolphins

Chris Olave | NO (at MIA)

Two of Chris Olave’s three best games this season have come in New Orleans’ past two contests, a stretch in which he’s totaled 14 catches for 174 yards and a score.

The passing game isn’t exactly a work of art, but Tyler Shough has been better than expected (70% complete in those two games,) and with Rashid Shaheeed taking his talents to Seattle, there really is just one place for those passes to go.

In Sunday’s loss, Olave had two more catches than any of his teammates had targets, something I think we can expect to be the sort of usage domination moving forward. Miami has allowed four WR1s to reach 20 PPR points this season, including Deebo Samuel in Week 11 before their bye.

Olave’s ceiling isn’t in the same neighborhood as those he ranks around for me this week, but his floor is elevated to the level that we can trust him despite being attached to an untrustworthy offense.

Christian Kirk | HOU (at IND)

Christian Kirk got his first touchdown of the season and saw two end zone targets in the upset win over the Bills on Thursday night, but I’m more tempted to call it a flash in the pan than anything predictive.

For the game, he ranked fourth among receivers in snaps played and ran just 13 routes. The fact that he was able to earn six targets on that limited role was good to see and can be used as an excuse to roster him, but I’m not comfortable going this far down the Houston depth chart to look for value.

If an injury were to occur to Nico Collins or Jayden Higgins, we might have a conversation. Heck, if we erased Xavier Hutchinson from the equation, maybe I could get there as a flexible piece in a deeper format.

But with this WR room currently healthy, Kirk doesn’t own the type of profile that makes me excited, and thus, he ranks well outside of my top 35 at the position.

Christian Watson | GB (at DET)

There are a lot of words to describe Green Bay’s passing attack, and few of them are complimentary.

That said, it was good to see Christian Watson lead the pass catchers across the board (five catches on seven targets for 49 yards) despite Jordan Love not having a single 20+ yard completion.

Watson’s upside is no secret, and if he can be efficient on non-deep targets (eight catches on eight targets over the past two weeks on balls thrown less than 15 yards downfield), he stands to carve out a viable role as a weekly flex.

The math stands to change with Jayden Reed coming back, something that figures to ramp up the variance of Watson’s targets, but I’m not adjusting for that in a major way until the short-range weapon proves his health.

Watson saw the first receiver target last week in the win over the Vikings and gets to play on a fast track this week in what could be an uptempo game. There’s risk, but I’m flexing him where I have him, understanding that I can adjust my weekend lineup risk tolerance based on what I get in the first game of the week.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (vs MIN)

With Tory Horton on IR and Rashid Shaheed looking more and more like a playoff weapon than someone Seattle is looking to expand in the short term, Cooper Kupp continues to hover around the roster bubble in average-sized fantasy leagues.

I’m not buying it.

This offense wants to feature the run and throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba as often as humanly possible. That doesn’t leave much turkey on the bone for anyone else, something that we’ve seen prove accurate over the past two weeks (11 targets for 47 yards).

Kupp has scored just once this season. This is a very good offense, and it hasn’t yielded many chances for the veteran receiver. If there’s nothing of value on the waiver wire, I won’t fault you for holding onto him, but the second there’s a breath of upside available, I’m not hesitating to make the move.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (at WAS)

Courtland Sutton is fighting to retain his WR1 role in this offense, which lowers his upside significantly.

The consistency in the quality target department was something Sutton managers were willing to accept. Still, if the quantity is now second to Troy Franklin, there’s more risk than practical reward in this profile.

Race For WR1, Weeks 6-12

• Sutton: 55.4 PPR points, 13.2% below expectation, 37 targets (three end zone)
• Troy Franklin: 78.6 PPR points, 10.8% below expectation, 49 targets (eight end zone)

Sutton averages 14.1 yards per catch for his career (14.4 this season), so at least there is single-play upside, right?

Right??

In theory, the matchup gives you that (Washington has ranked bottom-5 all season in YPA on deep throws), but Sutton isn’t the lone target on those bombs now.

• Weeks 1-9: 38.7% of his targets came deep downfield
• Weeks 10-11: 16.7% of his targets came deep downfield

This matchup and the scoring expectation of this offense have Sutton checking in as a viable flex for me this week, but I’m not super comfortable with it. His last top 30 performance came in Week 7, and given the volatility of Bo Nix, this is a player who can make or break your week.

Darius Slayton | NYG (at NE)

Amidst all of the chaos in the Jameis Winston experience last week, Darius Slayton earned just two targets on 25 routes, scoring 3.3 PPR points in the process.

The worries only grow when you realize that his 23-yard catch came on the very first offensive play of the afternoon.

Wan’Dale Robinson was the star (9-156-1 on 14 targets), but Isaiah Hodgins earned three times as many targets as Slayton. At the same time, Theo Johnson and Tyrone Tracy finished with more receptions than Slayton did targets.

If you told me that there was a DFS build that made sense with Slayton ceiling case in a matchup that figures to make New York pass heavy, I’d listen. When it comes to season-long, with no teams on a bye, I’ve got a hard time believing that you need to go this far down the WR rankings to fill your flex spot.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (at NYJ)

I highlighted the Darnell Mooney and Kirk Cousins splits from last season, and while it took a single bomb to pay off our trust, we did get there last week in New Orleans.

That was obviously a plus-matchup with Drake London (knee) sidelined, but there’s a chance we get something similar this weekend, no?

The targets weren’t worth anything, but the fact that Mooney earned 15 targets across the last two starts of Michael Penix’s seasons suggests to me that the deep threat is as healthy as he’s been.

I don’t think he’s a lock to return top 30 value in any matchup, but he does tuck inside of my top 35 for this week, and that means he’s on the flex radar and in the DFS mix (I have him ranked ahead of DJ Moore and DK Metcalf for context).

Davante Adams | LAR (at CAR)

Davante Adams is the best goal-line threat at the position in the league, and we are flirting with historic rates.

Since 2000, Most TD Catches Inside The 5-Yard Line In A Season

• 8: Bubba Franks, 2001
• 8: Randy Moss, 2004
• 8: Davante Adams, current

Is this the passing equivalent of the Tush Push?

Until the NFL finds a way to slow #17 in close, I have no problem projecting him for a score a week. The quality of non-TD targets leaves plenty of room to be desired (those 82 targets have resulted in just 36 receptions). Still, with the MVP favorite throwing him the ball and the clear confidence of his coaching staff, I see no reason to expect anything but top 15 production from Adams for the remainder of 2025.

DeAndre Hopkins | BAL (vs CIN)

The good news is that DeAndre Hopkins matched a season high in receptions on Sunday against the Jets, and that Zay Flowers was the only Raven with more catches in the victory.

The bad news?

It only took two catches to check those boxes.

This offense is begging for a player to step up next to Flowers in the pass game, but until we see someone (even one of the TEs) actually do it, we can’t justify playing any of the players in that mix.

For the record, I think both tight ends are more likely to score fantasy points in a given week than Hopkins, and that leaves him outside of my rosterable tier. This is obviously as good as things get.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (vs DEN)

The Week 11 showing from Deebo Samuel was good to see. With Terry McLaurin watching, he beat the Dolphins for 74 yards, a total that may not seem like a big deal, but considering that he totaled just 96 in the four prior, we will certainly take it.

Thus far in November, Samuel has caught 84.2% of his targets, which suggests he is still capable of winning at a high level in this league. When scheming him up, the Commanders have been able to get him the ball, but to what extent will that slow down when McLaurin returns?

With the presumed WR1 off the field this season, Samuel is averaging 45.4% more yards per route than when he is on the field, a trend that hints at a high level of variance when they are both active.

Samuel has scored on four of 44 targets without McLaurin and just one of 24 with him. This is a brutal matchup, and if we aren’t giving him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to efficiency, what is the path to him reaching double-figure PPR points?

For me, the path is a less-than-full-strength McLaurin. That’s a risky game to play: I’m making excuses to bench both of Washington’s receivers this weekend if I have anything close to viable options behind them.

DeMario Douglas | NE (vs NYG)

DeMario Douglas continued one of the weirder trends in the league: the 5’8” slot weapon has a 25+ yard catch in five straight, the third longest active streak in the league (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Alec Pierce).

I don’t mind the big play addition to his profile, but when it is all he offers, that’s an issue. Douglas has just 24 catches (36 targets) this season and has scored six touchdowns in 43 career games.

The Patriots’ offense is dangerous in a good way, while counting on any pass catcher outside of Stefon Diggs is dangerous, often in a bad way.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs CHI)

AJ Brown is the vocal Eagle these days, while DeVonta Smith just makes plays.

He’s seen at least seven targets in four of his past five games, and in each of his last five with 7+ looks, he has a 25+ yard catch. He’s six feet tall and 170 pounds soaking wet, but his ability to make plays down the field continues to develop.

Smith’s aDOT is 27% higher this year than last, and with defenses unable to allocate much attention his way, I suspect we continue to see him running in single coverage deep down the field.

The Bears are battling plenty of secondary injuries and allow the second-highest completion percentage on passes thrown 15+ yards downfield through 12 weeks. I’ve got Smith over Brown this week, and he checks in as a strong WR2 in all formats for me.

DJ Moore | CHI (at PHI)

This DJ Moore profile is tough to get a hold of. On one hand, he scored on the first Bears drive in both halves last weekend against the Steelers, a sign that he is a part of the planned script.

We like that, but are we buying it after he caught one of seven targets in the two weeks prior?

Luther Burden’s stock is on the rise, and with Colston Loveland adding explosive plays to this TE room, I find myself more on the pessimistic side of the Moore conundrum.

His two red zone targets last week matched his total from his six games prior, and if sheer volume is going to be difficult to come by due to the number of mouths to feed, scoring equity is something Moore managers need to justify flexing him.

For now, I have him ranked ahead of Burden, but he’s certainly closer to the WR3 in this offense than the WR1, and that has him sitting just outside of my top 35 at the position for Week 13.

DK Metcalf | PIT (vs BUF)

You know how hard it is for a player built like DK Metcalf to average 2.8 yards per target against a vulnerable defense?

This system simply isn’t built to make our dreams come true.

DK Metcalf did record his sixth touchdown of the season last week, a swing pass that was technically backwards and thus recorded as a rush (even when he scores, he can’t do it right and get us the point for the reception!).

He suffered an ankle injury in the first half, and while he was able to return, if we are looking at any physical limitations, the per-target projection could lose some of the little value it had in the first place.

The Bills have allowed more of a short-range target to hurt them in four straight weeks (Rashee Rice, Jaylen Waddle, Sterline Shepard, and Christian Kirk all led their respective teams in WR PPR points when facing Buffalo), and that allows you to get away with flexing Pittsburgh’s WR1. Still, the floor/ceiling equation isn’t close to what we thought it’d be.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at DET)

It’s OK to admit that you don’t know the right answer to the multiple choice question that is the Packers’ passing game, but there is value in ruling options out, and I think we are to that point with Dontayvion Wicks.

He’s hovered around a 50% snap share when active, all season long, and doesn’t yet have a 45-yard game on his 2025 resume. I understand that he was tackled at the goal line on Green Bay’s first drive last week, and if he finishes off that 18-yard gain, maybe the narrative is slightly different. Still, with under 20 routes run in his past five, he’d have to earn targets at a rate well above anything we’ve seen him do up to this point to be worth a roster spot.

Drake London | ATL (at NYJ)

Drake London sprained his PCL in Week 11 and missed last week as a result. Rhaeem Morris said last week that he “hopes” that this Kirk Cousins-led offense will have its WR1 back this week: we need more than “hope”, coach!

The Falcons aren’t going anywhere this season. Given that London has proven himself as an alpha WR in consecutive seasons (26 games: 160 receptions for 2,081 yards, and 15 touchdowns), it stands to reason to believe that they will be cautious with the 24-year-old. They wasted no time in picking up his fifth-year option back in April, a move that suggests they value him the same way we do: a true difference maker.

This matchup isn’t the least bit worrisome, so if Atlanta elects to trot London out there, you follow suit, but if you’ve got family obligations and need to lock in your lineup sooner than later, I’d plan on looking elsewhere.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (vs ARI)

Some rookies need time to adjust to the NFL, and some rookies need time for the NFL to adjust to them.

Emeka Egbuka is proving to be the latter, as he was a top asset to open the season, but has come through tough times of late.

• Weeks 1-5: 20.5 PPR PPG, 60.5% over expectations
• Weeks 6-12: 9.9 PPR PPG, 36.1% below expectations

This is frustrating, but not unique. Injuries around him have changed the situation and thus affected how he is being treated. This Baker Mayfield injury obviously carries significant weight moving forward, and the return of Chris Godwin figures to make those layup targets less of an option in an offense that needs to weaponize his athletic ability with Mike Evans on the shelf.

For me, he’s essentially AJ Brown the rest of the way: a talented player with a strong target share, but week-to-week risk. The ability is obvious, and with how this team is structured, fantasy-friendly game environments are pretty standard.

There was a time earlier this season when we were treating Egbuka as a top 10 receiver without a second thought. That’s no longer the case, but I find it hard to believe that you have three WRs on your roster with a stronger Week 13 (or rest of season) outlook.

He’s sitting at WR17 for me this week against a Cards defense that has allowed the opposing WR1 to go over his seasonal PPR average in five of their past seven games.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs ATL)

News broke earlier this month that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games upon initial diagnosis.

Given the direction of this season, it’s reasonable to think that we’ve seen the last of New York’s WR1 this season. That hasn’t been reported, and until it is, you’re holding. The required four-game absence means that Wilson can return for Week 15’s game in Jacksonville, a matchup I’d be fine with targeting, and a New Orleans matchup the following week would also be interesting.

But I’m not counting on it.

This is a floundering team that isn’t exactly motivated to compete. This passing game is broken, but with Wilson under contract through the 2030 season, he’s their primary path to digging out. The Jets need to figure out the quarterback position, but they have a building block in their top receiver and will want to enter 2026 with him at full strength instead of putting him in harm’s way this winter.

George Pickens | DAL (vs KC)

This George Pickens is one of the better when-talent-meets-opportunity situations in sports this season. He landed in the perfect offense with the perfect quarterback at the perfect time, and with all of those things lining up, he’s fantasy’s second-best receiver.

The most impressive part is that he’s not sneaking up on anyone and still producing. We all knew what he was capable of this season, and even over the course of last week, it’s not that the Eagles were unaware of what he brings to the table.

Didn’t matter: a 25-yard catch to help set up the game-winning field goal from Brandon Aubrey.

Last season with the Steelers, in a similar role by way of aDOT and target share, Pickens produced 9.4% under what you’d expect the average receiver to do in his role.

This season, he’s 36.9% better than the expected PPR production.

The Chiefs’ defense is nothing short of elite, and that means getting both Dallas receivers to the finish line might be difficult, but there’s nothing actionable to do here. It was way back in Week 1, but the Chargers had each of their three primary receivers clear 13 PPR points in this matchup, a fate that is certainly possible for Pickens and Lamb.

Every league’s draft position is different, but Pickens is in the mix for the most valuable draft day asset when looking at middle rounds, and there’s nothing numerically to suggest that regression is inevitable.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at BAL)

Ja’Marr Chase served his one-game suspension last week as a result of #SpitGate and will be back in the mix this week with Joe Burrow under center.

This is an era of short-term memory, so if last season is too long ago for you, here’s a friendly reminder that Chase won the triple crown last season (127-1708-17) with Burrow under center and that landed him as the consensus 1.01 in August.

Last season, Cincy’s WR1 had double-digit receptions in both games against Baltimore (totals: 21 catches for 457 yards and five scores). Sure, if you want to tell me that Baltimore’s defense is trending up, I’ll bite, but the level of improvement it would take to make me the least bit nervous on Thanksgiving night is nonexistent.

Chase is a Tier 1 receiver this week, and you shouldn’t be the least bit worried about either his week off or rust on the side of Burrow.

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (at TEN)

Everything is moving in the right direction for Jakobi Meyers since coming over from Vegas. Against a bottom-seven pass defense in passer rating, completion percentage, yards per pass, yards per completion, and interception rate, we are firmly in the flex zone.

• Week 10 (Game 1 with JAX): 41.8% snaps, 4.7 expected PPR points
• Week 11 (Game 2 with JAX): 63.8% snaps, 9.7 expected PPR points
• Week 12 (Game 3 with JAX): 83.6% snaps, 11.2 expected PPR points

After seeing two end zone targets last weekend in Arizona and playing for a favorite, Meyers is easily a top 40 PPR option with top 25 production within the range of expectations. I’ve got him ranked in the Khalil Shakir and Jauan Jennings tier of flex, a level that I’m comfortable with in most situations.

Jameson Williams | DET (vs GB)

Jameson Williams is averaging just 4.8 targets per game this season and has shown us a wide range of outcomes in November alone (shut out last week on the heels of consecutive games with 19+ PPR points).

That’s not going to change.

That said, the tail outcome we saw last week shouldn’t factor too much into your decision-making for this week or the remainder of the season. In Weeks 1-6, the Packers ranked No. 1 in YPA on long passes (7.0 yards), but since then, they rank No. 25 (12.6).

I do not believe that he’s a deep only threat (his aDOT is actually down 29.3% since Dan Campbell took over the playcalling), but this matchup does carry more one-play upside than you might assume.

Xavier Worthy is functionally being worked out of the offensive plan in Kansas City, and I don’t think that’s the case here, even if it’s easy to lump speed receivers next to one another. I have Williams over Worthy by a dozen spots, and that lands him as a WR2 in Week 13.

Jauan Jennings | SF (at CLE)

Jauan Jennings has scored in three of his past four games and has at least seven targets in four of his past six games as he has established himself as the top receiver in this offense.

His average weekly finish over the past month is WR24, and I think that’s a pretty reasonable expectation moving forward. The Browns haven’t allowed a receiver to reach a dozen PPR points in a game since their Week 9 bye, and while I think Jennings’ ceiling is limited given the nature of this offense and the volume that the two players ahead of him in the target hierarchy demand, I do like him to snap this Cleveland run.

Ricky Pearsall’s return hasn’t impacted the trajectory of Jennings at all: pencil in 6-8 efficient targets and be on your way.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs MIN)

As required by law, you get your one shock-your-friends stat from me per week: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. There’s no true insight to give in terms of his value this week or for the remainder of the season: the man is pacing for a historic season and seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses.

JSN was great in September, catching 76.5% of his targets and reaching 90 yards from scrimmage in all four games.

WR PPR Point Totals, 2025

1. Smith-Njigba: 255.0
2. George Pickens: 220.4
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown: 218.3
4. Puka Nacua: 210.0
5. Ja’Marr Chase: 193.7
6. Smith-Njigba without September’s stats: 183.7
7. Davante Adams: 183.1
8. Drake London: 177.0

He has three touchdowns of 40+ yards over the past six weeks after not having a 30+ yarder in his career prior. It is impossible to overstate what Smith-Njigba means to the Seahawks, your fantasy team, and the direction of your league as we approach the playoffs.

Jayden Higgins | HOU (at IND)

I like what we are seeing here, but I fear this is a Pat Bryant situation, where it is more a laying of the foundation for next season than something we need to act on in a major way down the stretch of 2025.

Jayden Higgins has earned at least seven targets in all three games during this win streak, scoring in two of them and averaging 107.7 air yards in the process. He entered the league billed as a big-play maker, and I think we’ve seen enough in the way of signs to be interested.

Long term.

These three high usage games have come with Davis Mills, not C.J. Stroud, under center, and given that we’ve yet to see signs of life like this with the QB1, I’m not flexing him just yet, and I doubt I’ll get there over the final month.

The usage over the past three weeks has come down the field (13+ yard aDOT in all of them), and I’m not sold on this offense, behind a struggling offensive line, sustaining two WRs with that skill set.

Jayden Reed | GB (at DET)

The Packers opened up Jayden Reed’s (collarbone) 21-day practice window last Friday, and while things are moving in the right direction, Week 14 is the more realistic target date.

This is a player that is going to be hard to trust in an offense that spreads it around, but don’t forget that Reed was battling a foot injury before the collarbone injury, and that means that we could be getting as good a version of Reed as possible once he returns.

No player in this offense has established himself as a strong target earner, thus leaving the door wide open for Reed to put himself in the PPR flex conversation the second he is ruled active.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs NO)

Jaylen Waddle has settled into the WR1 nicely, and I see no reason to expect anything different in this plus-matchup.

The role has changed a bit (65.2% rise in aDOT this season when Tyreek Hill is off the field compared to when he was on it), but with at least seven targets in three straight, the volume and talent are something we can feel good about betting on.

Weeks 8-11: Top 5 Qualified WRs, Yards Per Route

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4.25
2. Drake London: 3.55
3. Puka Nacua: 3.55
4. Waddle: 3.17
5. George Pickens: 2.74

There’s no real competition for Waddle, and that makes him a lineup staple, even if there are some efficiency concerns as defenses continue to focus on him. Waddle has a 30+ yard reception in three of his past four games and is blending upside with safe targets, something only a dozen receivers are doing at a similar level through three months.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs SF)

Jerry Jeudy had the explosive Week 10 game, with a dozen targets against a depleted Jets unit, but he has just 60 yards on 10 targets since.

In Shedeur Sanders’ first start, Harold Fannin was the primary target (33.3% target share) with a pair of fellow rookies leading the way in receiving yards (Dylan Sampson and Isaiah Bond).

I’m not sure that any of that is sticky. Still, the fact that the target/yardage distribution can look like that in any given week is why I’m making every excuse I can to avoid rostering, never mind starting, any of these pass catchers.

RELATED: Fantasy Football Cut List Week 13: Jordan Mason, Jerry Jeudy, Keon Coleman, and Others

The quarterback change can’t be a bad thing (Jeudy this season has produced 40.8% below expectations), but that doesn’t mean it’s a good thing.

I’m benching Jeudy until I have a reason not to, and if you had to cut ties, I don’t think making a move is off the board.

Jordan Addison | MIN (at SEA)

I think we can all agree that Jordan Addison would love to see November end.

• Week 9 at Lions: 48 yards, 4 targets
• Week 10 vs. Ravens: 35 yards, 11 targets
• Week 11 vs. Bears: 20 yards (saved by a TD), 7 targets
• Week 12 at Packers: 0 yards, 1 target

No receiver projects to sustain the scoring rate that Addison had through his first two seasons (19 scores on 133 receptions), but this isn’t the sort of regression we’d pencil in.

This is pretty clearly a QB problem, and with that issue not going away, it’s safe to say that Addison is on the outside looking in at flex value moving forward. I’ll keep him rostered for his raw talent, but I’m not operating with much optimism moving forward.

Josh Downs | IND (vs HOU)

Josh Downs isn’t lineup worthy, and there’s a chance he doesn’t need to be rostered.

Over the past two games, he’s turned eight targets into just 13 receiving yards, and he’s a clear #3 option in a run-centric offense that has a quarterback regressing in terms of the production numbers we care about.

That’s about as bad as it gets.

I’m a believer in the talent of Downs and can already tell you that I’ll be higher than the industry of him this summer (it’s far too early to sell on a 24-year-old that has some good tape out there). Still, I’m not the least bit confident that we see things turnaround for this version of the Colts and that has him trending in the direction of a player that can be cut for quality depth elsewhere.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (at PIT)

If Josh Palmer were destined to make an impact in any sense this season, it would have come over the past two weeks with Keon Coleman being a healthy scratch.

To say “it didn’t happen” would be a drastic understatement. In those two games, he managed to earn nine targets on 41 routes, and that’s great, but 38 yards leaves plenty to be desired.

If things go according to plan, we can count on two pass catchers from this Buffalo offense, and nothing Palmer has put on film this season suggests that he’s remotely close to that conversation.

You’re on the right track in wanting a player on an offense with elite potential, but this is the wrong way to do it.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (at SEA)

It would be irresponsible not to address the struggles of Justin Jefferson recently in this J.J. McCarthy-led offense, so let’s get that out of the way.

• WR42 (12 targets, 37 yards)
• WR26 (9 targets, 61 yards)
• WR37 (6 targets, 48 yards)

Forget a star receiver, Jefferson hasn’t been consistently usable in PPR formats, and now a matchup against the third-worst YPA defense in the league.

That’s not ideal, but I’m sticking this one out. He had a 15-yard catch on McCarthy’s first pass last week, and over the past two games, Jefferson has accounted for 69.1% of Minnesota’s first-half receiving yards. The plan is there, and while the execution is obviously an issue, it’s at least a thread of optimistic usage to prevent you from making a rash decision.

Jefferson has fallen to the middling WR2 bucket, but he’s still a starter for me. Just like we thought three months ago: A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Michael Wilson, and Jefferson are all sharing a Week 13 tier.

In theory, a change at QB can’t be a bad thing, but we don’t know that Max Brosmer starting this week is a step in a positive direction.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (vs NYG)

Kayshon Boutte had a nice run of spike plays a month ago, but that is in the past now, and with a limited track record of winning routes consistently, there’s no need to overextend in this fashion for a piece of the Patriots offense.

This season, 20 times a New England player has finished a game with an 18% target share or greater, and Boutte has accounted for two of them.

Two.

He forced a long DPI last week, but the 6.1% target share carries more weight than the potential of a single big play. Boutte hasn’t seen more than three targets in seven of his past nine games and should be off your radar in all formats at this point.

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs LV)

We were in on the floor of Keenan Allen to open the season, and for a month, we looked great.

The way things are trending, the veteran receiver is a fringe PPR flex at best, and there’s the risk of him falling outside of lineup consideration altogether.

Allen’s profile is simple: make the most of the targets you get and sustain drives. He’s only hauled in half of his targets this month, and the scoring profile has been removed from the equation with one score since his three-game streak to open the season.

The chain-moving role will continue to hold value to the Bolts, and I do not doubt that he can make a big play when called upon. He showed nice athletic juice on the 30-yard catch in Jacksonville before the bye, but with a limited target ceiling and four straight without an end zone look, this isn’t an asset I want to count on moving forward.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at PIT)

After back-to-back healthy scratches, there’s no reason to hold onto Keon Coleman and hope that he accesses his upside in a meaningful way.

The whole idea behind Coleman is that he can hit big on a single game-breaking play, but if he’s lost the trust of his coaching staff, what signal is there that he’ll be put in a spot to make a splash play at any point for the remainder of this season?

Buffalo needs to get better at the receiver position during this Josh Allen peak window, and it needs to happen sooner rather than later. If all vibes checks are passed ahead of next season, I’ll leave the light on for a raw athlete in an explosive offense, but when it comes to evaluating the remainder of 2025, I’m not interested.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at PIT)

What is your expectation for Khalil Shakir?

I guess that if I asked you to give me a stat line blindly, you’d give me something like 4-5 catches for 50-60 yards and no touchdowns more often than not.

That’s right in line with what the slot machine has averaged over the past two weeks, though it’s been in an awfully non-Shakir way:

• Week 11 vs. Tampa Bay: 1 catch on 3 targets for -3 yards
• Week 12 at Houston: 8 catches on 10 targets for 110 yards

At the end of the day, I’m still comfortable betting on him as a PPR scam that can return value weekly. We saw Buffalo get creative with him, and that’s the type of thing that strong teams do for a player they view as critical.

There was a nice play design that got him in space on a third-and-12 in the fourth quarter that picked up 44 yards after he forced a missed tackle and went streaking down the sideline after catching the dump-off pass against pressure.

On the final drive, the hook-and-ladder went to him as the team opted to put the game in his hands instead of blindly trusting Josh Allen to do something crazy.

It resulted in a fourth-and-27 conversion, a play that might get forgotten because the drive ended five plays later with an interception. Still, the play call reinforced the idea that the team views him as multiple levels above any other pass catcher on this roster.

Despite the dud in Week 11, I still trust the floor more than a worry about a lack of a true ceiling. Shakir is a viable WR2 in deeper leagues and a PPR flex at worst, both this week and moving forward.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs LV)

Ladd McConkey was drafted as the unquestioned WR1 for the Chargers and while it took a little while to get there, I think we are about where you expected to be entering the final month.

• Weeks 1-5: 8.4% of LAC fourth quarter receiving yards
• Weeks 6-12: 43.5% of LAC fourth quarter receiving yards

When the chips are down, Justin Herbert has shown us, through his actions, that there is a clear top option in this offense. The running game is a bit of a moving piece, and should they gain stability on that front, maybe McConkey sees his value tick down moving forward, but I’m not worried about that in the scope of Week 12.

This season, McConkey has caught 74.4% of his targets coming short of the sticks (eight catches on nine such targets this month). The Raiders are a forgiving defense across the board, and if Los Angeles wants to negate the impact of Maxx Crosby, quick passes to McConkey are a good way to do that.

He’s a locked-in WR2 for me, and I think there’s a chance he returns top 12 production in PPR leagues this weekend.

Luther Burden III | CHI (at PHI)

This is an annoying situation, and I fear that the difficult upcoming schedule gives us more questions than answers as we come down the home stretch.

First Half Usage Report, Week 12

• Rome Odunze: 19 routes, 3 targets, 0 red zone touches
• DJ Moore: 18 routes, 3 targets, 1 red zone touch
• Colston Loveland: 17 routes, 4 targets, 1 red zone touch
• Luther Burden: 17 routes, 5 targets, 0 red zone touches

It would appear that Cole Kmet (eight routes) and Olamide Zaccheaus (six) have been pushed to the side, but with this offense now featuring two productive backs, how much production is there realistically in this offense?

That answer will, naturally, vary from week to week, but I know it’s not enough to support four players, and I have my doubts about three. Last week, all four of them finished with 45-65 receiving yards, Moore and Loveland being responsible for Caleb Williams’ three touchdowns.

If you told me that the Bears were going to score 31 points weekly, I’d be in on the idea of taking my chances on this offense, but I don’t believe that to be even close to true.

• Friday at Eagles
• Week 14 at Packers
• Week 15 vs. Browns
• Week 16 vs. Packers
• Week 17 at 49ers

If you can survive that San Francisco matchup, we will talk. But before then, it might take them 6-8 quarters to put 31 points on the board on average.

I like the trajectory of Burden and would keep him rostered if his role continues to grow, but I’m going to keep my expectations in check and view a breakout as a bonus, not an expectation.

Mack Hollins | NE (vs NYG)

After consecutive double-digit PPR performances (and three times in four games), Mack Hollins fell flat on Sunday in the matchup of all matchups against the Bengals.

If fantasy football were easy, everyone would be good at it.

The day started just fine as Drake Maye’s first pass went to Hollins and picked up six yards. The problem was the next 59 minutes: one catch on five targets for 24 yards.

With 12.4-yard aDOT, a clear WR1 playing in front of him, running backs that can catch passes, and a tight end that shows up once every few weeks, asking Hollins to retain weekly value would be difficult if he played for a team that was constantly in a passing script.

The 10-2 Patriots are far from that, and with the final game of Week 13 opening as a 7.5-point spread, there’s not much optimism in the prediction markets that Maye is going to be forced into a high-volume game.

For me, he’s not much different than Darius Slayton in this same game: slightly more target-earning chops, but less volume and less role upside to chase. Neither is sniffing my top 40 this week, with every team in action, and with both on bye next week, you should feel free to cut ties should you need to open up a roster spot, even if it’s to stash a streaming defense you like for your playoff run.

Marquise Brown | KC (at DAL)

Let’s not overcomplicate thighs: there are three players that Andy Reid is focused on scheming up looks for in this passing game, and everyone else is fighting for table scraps.

Last week against the Colts, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy all ran 39+ routes while Kareem Hunt was the only other player on this roster to reach 25.

I understand wanting to bet on Patrick Mahomes’ magic, but when magic competes with logic, I encourage you to side with the latter.

Week 12 Target Distribution

• Kelce/Rice/Worthy: 26
• Running Backs: 9
• All Other Chiefs: 8

That wouldn’t be a comfortable situation if Marquise Brown were the favorite of the remaining pieces, so the fact that he’s battling with Noah Gray, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and the occasional Tyquan Thornton bomb should make your decision on rostering him pretty straightforward.

Hard pass.

There will likely be a game or two where he makes an impact play, but he’s not high up on the priority list of this offense, and that’s enough for me never to feel good about considering him. I’d rather stream in targets from the Bills, Packers, or Patriots, situations with a more fluid hierarchy as you work up the target hierarchy.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at TB)

Surgery for appendicitis kept Marvin Harrison out of Week 11’s loss, and the team wasted no time in ruling him out ahead of Week 12, signs that aren’t great as we try to read the tea leaves about his status moving forward.

This is a team going nowhere that now might think they have a formidable three-headed pass-catching monster, given what Michael Wilson has shown over these past two weeks (25 catches on 33 targets for 303 yards). Why push things for a 3-8 team?

Their three primary pass catchers are all under contract for at least one more year, making this offense even more appealing in 2026. Unless the reporting shifts in a major way, I’m going to need to see Harrison on the field for a game before putting him near my starting lineup during the most important month of the season.

The same logic applies to Wilson, by the way: I won’t start fearing his volume until we get signs on the field of play that Harrison is close to full strength.

Matthew Golden | GB (at DET)

Matthew Golden was inactive on Sunday (shoulder/wrist) and hasn’t had a game with 40 receiving yards since the middle of October.

This is a low-volume passing game that has shown no interest in getting its first-round pick involved consistently, so why would we hold out hope with him at less than full strength?

Dontayvion Wicks looked reasonably healthy over the weekend, and Jayden Reed is going to be worked into an offense that already lacks definition in terms of their target hierarchy. The juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze as you look to refine your roster for the playoffs: you can find more targets or more per opportunity upside on your wire without much trouble.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs HOU)

The Colts picked off Patrick Mahomes to put them in scoring position to open their second drive, one that finished with a six-yard touchdown for Michael Pittman.

At the time, it felt like we might have a big game brewing, but he finished with a 5-27-1 stat line, underwhelming given the hot start.

We’ve seen some cracks in the armor recently for Daniel Jones, but it really hasn’t mattered for his WR1. Pittman has 14+ expected points and 13+ real points in four of his past five games, thriving in a role that has him catching 80% of his targets that come short of the sticks.

With defenses (rightfully so) terrified about Jonathan Taylor tearing them apart, Pittman’s ability to win quickly off the line of scrimmage profiles as a sustainable path to fantasy goodness, even in a tough matchup like this.

The Colts aren’t exactly like the Seahawks, and I’d never say that Pittman is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but Seattle possesses a run game that is also critical to limit, and when they faced these Texans, JSN saw 48.3% of Sam Darnold’s passes thrown his way.

A handful of catches makes for a safe floor, and while the touchdown equity is lower this week than others, Pittman is the type of receiver that can push 15 PPR points without the benefit of a score.

Michael Wilson | ARI (at TB)

Trey McBride is what we wanted Brock Bowers to be.

Jacoby Brissett is what we wanted Kyler Murray to be.

Michael Wilson is what we wanted Marvin Harrison to be.

I’m not exactly sure what is in the water in Arizona, but they’re developing skill-position players at a high level. If Trey Benson can give this team some balance, opponents are going to be hard-pressed to slow this momentum.

Over the past two seasons, only three receivers have logged consecutive 10+ catch games: Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and yes, Wilson.

He’s obviously not in that class, but maybe the Cards just misread him as a player?

In each of these two breakout games, Wilson has been in the slot for under 17% of his routes, a rate that was north of 43% in the three games prior. This could either be very interesting or very damning, depending on how the team wants to use Harrison: if they shift some of his usage to the slot, he suffers and Wilson gains (Harrison’s YPRR from the slot is down 41.6% this year from last), and the inverse is true should Wilson return to the role he once filled.

I think that might be more of a Week 14-17 question. For now, I’m assuming that Wilson is going to be on the outside, and we just saw the Rams carve up these Bucs with 12 completions, 146 yards, and a pair of touchdowns going that direction on 17 throws.

Wilson, in a week where all 32 teams are in action, and the position is reasonably healthy, is a top 20 play for me this week.

Nico Collins | HOU (at IND)

The Nico Collins flame has flickered with hope with Davis Mills under center, but it sounds as if C.J. Stroud is set to return, and I need to see this connection rediscover their connection from last season before I label him as the WR1 that I think he very much can be.

Statistical Profile With Stroud

• 2024: 30.1% over expectations, 3.05 yards per route, 11.9 aDOT
• 2025: 8.1% under expectations, 1.99 yards per route, 11.5 aDOT

The production has fallen off a cliff despite similar route demands. The offensive line is a concern, but if Mills can overcome it and allow Collins to show signs of life, I’m cautiously optimistic.

Star receivers have showcased week-breaking upside against the Colts this season (Puka Nacua hung 36 points on them back in Week 4 and Keenan Allen surprised with 28.9 in Week 7), and I do think that sort of game is within the range of outcomes for Sunday.

Parker Washington | JAX (at TEN)

As Jakobi Meyers’ usage ramps up and Brenton Strange’s health improves, Parker Washington’s profile is thin, but he overcame all of it last week in Arizona (5-71-1), the third time in four weeks where he’s returned top 17 numbers at the position.

I’m not a doctor, but the hamstring injury didn’t seem to be an issue, and Trevor Lawrence very much looks comfortable in going this direction. I’m skeptical of the long-term outlook here and think the bottom could fall out sooner than later. Still, if you’re in a bind this week or next (four teams are on a bye in Week 14 with the Jags hosting the Colts), I think he’s better than risk-reward plays like Luther Burden, Rashid Shaheed, or Chimere Dike in this same game.

Pat Bryant | DEN (at WAS)

It would appear that Pat Bryant has usurped Marvin Mims for the WR3 role in this offense (Mims: consecutive games without a reception), and there’s a lot to like in the rookie’s profile as a piece of this Sean Payton system.

Also, I’m not sure the WR3 role in this offense matters.

Both things can be true. I like Bryant’s long-term trajectory. Heck, I might love it. In Week 10, a season-high 67.9% of his routes came in the slot, and he topped it in Week 11 (74.3%). He’s carving out a nice niche, but I think it’s too little too late for redraft purposes.

Only three times this season has a Denver WR cleared 12 PPR points. Bo Nix isn’t the most consistent QB in the world, and with Troy Franklin/Courtland Sutton the clear top two options, banking on Bryant, even on the ascension, in a consistent way, is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.

The Broncos get the Raiders next week, with four teams on a bye. If you’re looking for a single spot to use him, that’s the one.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at CAR)

The consistency for Puka Nacua is nothing short of uncanny:

• 2024: 277 routes, 79 catches, 21,7% deep target rate
• 2025: 277 routes, 80 catches, 21.4% deep target rate

You could waste your time complaining about the touchdowns that are funneled to Davante Adams every week, but what good does being negative do?

Nacua has caught 7+ passes in eight of 10 games this year and in 12 of 14 if you look back to last regular season. A defense that is stronger on the ground than through the air and is operating on a short work week doesn’t profile as the type to slow the Nacua train.

The touchdown equity isn’t what you’d expect for the WR1 in the offense with the league’s leader in TD passes, but that’s not even close to stopping me from ranking him as a top-5 play at the position for this weekend.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs LV)

You can miss me with the complaints about Quentin Johnston turning into Quentin Johnston.

I understand that you thought you stumbled into a golden ticket with Johnston back in September, and the ride was fun, but we may have overreacted to a hot stretch because it was the first thing we saw this season.

That’s not to say he can’t have his moments, but he’s not the best receiver on this offense and isn’t a reliable fantasy starter (under 55 receiving yards in five straight, a run that includes not one, but two goose eggs).

• September: 3 TDs on 11 deep targets
• Since: 1 TD on 8 deep targets

The quantity and quality of those looks are on the decline. This matchup shouldn’t scare you, but Maxx Crosby’s impact is felt in this pass game (below-average opponent aDOT with a top-10 mark in yards per opponent completion) and leaves me thinking that this dry spell is more likely to sustain than change course.

QJ is a low-end flex, a ranking he earned more based on my confidence in the scoring environment than anything his profile suggests is likely.

Rashee Rice | KC (at DAL)

Rashee Rice has cleared a 20% target share in every game this season, with his 12 targets and 141 yards last week easily representing his best marks of 2025.

Over the past month, he’s caught 18-of-20 targets coming short of the sticks, doing exactly what this Chiefs offense needs him to do and doing it at a high level.

Rice had the critical 47-yard grab against the Colts, helping save their season and elevate his fantasy day in the process. Dallas’ defense has looked better in the two weeks coming out of the bye, and that’s forced opponents into a 6.3 aDOT (third lowest over that stretch and a 24.1% decline from pre-bye).

That’ll drive a pro-Rice angle in the FREE PFSN betting newsletter (a new release on every NFL game day) and is why I have him sitting as a top-5 receiver in this spot.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (vs MIN)

Rashid Shaheed has turned eight Seahawks targets into just 30 yards over his three weeks with the team. They’ve experimented with a rushing attempt in each contest, but he’s been unable to navigate this depth chart in a meaningful way, even with Tory Horton on the shelf.

Week 12 Pass Catcher Usage

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 26 routes, 10 targets
• Cooper Kupp: 23 routes, 4 targets
• Shaheed: 19 routes, 2 targets
• AJ Barner: 17 routes, 4 targets

Given how this offense is structured, I still think this was a sharp trade. My concern is that it’s a move that was made for January, after our season has concluded.

I’m not buying Kupp as a viable secondary option, and while Barner can move the chains, I can’t imagine he is the complement to JSN that Seattle wants to rely on.

This is a fairly clear-cut situation: hold and hope. We have no proof of concept for working on Shaheed’s strengths effectively, but we are aware of the season Sam Darnold is having when he does cut it loose.

The Seahawks get the Falcons next week before a Colts-Rams-Panthers run to close the fantasy season. Could Seattle look to expand its role to keep up with Indy or to avoid pounding their head against the wall in those last two matchups against viable run defenses?

I’m not ruling it out, but I’m not playing Shaheed in any capacity this week with every team in action.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (vs CIN)

Rashod Bateman (ankle) is said to be nearing a return to action, but he hasn’t been nearly productive enough to justify rostering him while he works through this injury.

His yards per route (0.89) and air yards per game (44.7) are easily pacing for career lows, trends I don’t see reversing any time soon. Zay Flowers looks the part of a WR1, and with a pair of viable tight ends, there’s simply not enough volume to chase for a player that has yet to really prove capable of doing so.

The Bateman role isn’t worth chasing, either. You can find week-to-week upside that far exceeds what you’re wise to expect from the fourth option in this run-oriented offense.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (at CLE)

There are half a dozen players with a profile like this, and if you want to rotate any one of them for the other, I won’t nitpick.

Ricky Pearsall’s ability to stretch the field is something that he has proven, but a receiver like that is only as effective as the offense around him allows him to be.

Brock Purdy has seven interceptions against one touchdown when throwing vertically this season, so even if you think Pearsall (knee) is at full strength, the risk/reward equation is out of whack.

I’m looking for Kyle Shanahan to feature the short-to-intermediate passing game more as we come down the stretch, and that puts a pigeon-holed player like Pearsall in a tough spot to cash in on the upside that his athleticism presents.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at PHI)

This offense is slowly developing into the well-rounded unit that we thought it would be for the jump, and that’s killing the weekly viability of their WR1 in Rome Odunze.

Over his past seven games, after four straight with 15+ point efforts to open the season, he has five single-digit performances and two games over 18.

The thought process behind Odunze is one I’m hanging tough with as a lower-end WR2 this week. The 15 targets he’s earned over the past two weeks are something I trust more than the lack of production from them, and DJ Moore’s 25-yard score last week was opened up by the attention being paid on the perimeter to Odunze.

It’s been a grind of late, but this Bears offense seems to be taking shape, and as defenses feel threatened in a variety of ways, I like the odds of the pendulum swinging more in our favor with time.

As it stands right now, I have him and DeVonta Smith sharing not only a field, but a tier in my Week 13 rankings, along with the falling star of the past month in Justin Jefferson (at SEA).

Romeo Doubs | GB (at DET)

Romeo Doubs seemed to have established himself as the WR1 in this offense in October, but ever since Christian Watson returned, his workload hasn’t been the same.

Over the past three weeks, he’s totaled just seven catches and 81 yards. He didn’t reach double figures in PPR points in any of those games, and in four of his past five, production that isn’t close to viable.

With this game total pushing 50 points, you could opt to bet on the game as a whole and hope that the environment brings Doubs along for the ride, but considering that he hasn’t found paydirt since the hat trick in Dallas and was held to just two receptions in the Week 1 meeting with these Lions, he’s on the very back end of flexible.

Stefon Diggs | NE (vs NYG)

Every Patriot not named Hunter Henry left us wanting much more last week in what was set up to be a perfect matchup in Cincinnati, and Stefon Diggs was no exception.

He entered the game with a TD reception or 7+ catches in five straight games: he promptly posts a 9.1% target share (over 27% in the two games prior and over 21% in four of the previous five) and 28 air yards (fourth lowest this season).

The trust from Drake Maye remains, and we saw it with a 14-yard hookup late to convert a third-and-11 and ice the game. Realistically, that’s all I need. The Giants have allowed a receiver to clear 20 PPR points in each of the past three weeks (Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown), and there’s no question who the Patriots WR is most likely to capitalize on that trend.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at BAL)

Tee Higgins suffered a concussion late in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, and with a short work week, he’s not going to be able to pass all of the protocols in time to play the Thanksgiving Day nightcap.

This has been a brutal run out for those who drafted Higgins this season, and sitting out a shootout with the Ravens is simply the latest example. The Joe Burrow injury hurt in a big way early in the season, and then he gets a game with competent QB play and no Ja’Marr Chase, only to leave early.

This is poorly timed, but can’t be viewed as a surprise. Higgins logged a full season as a rookie, and that’s his only such year on his NFL resume (this will be his 11th missed game over the past three seasons).

Andrei Iosivas led the Bengals in targets (seven) and receiving yards (61) last week, and while that’s not really in play this week, he’s the low-end flex play to consider if injuries are giving you a hard time.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs DEN)

Terry McLaurin (quad) has appeared in just one game since Week 3, but he traveled with the Commanders to Madrid in Week 11 ahead of the bye, and that has all signs pointing to a return to action this week.

Imagine going back to work following a fight with the flu and being told that the staff is running a 5k at lunch as a team-building activity.

That’s how I imagine McLaurin feeling when he looks at the schedule and sees the Broncos as his potential return spot.

What’s his role in this Marcus Mariota offense? How can they move the ball through the air if the ground game doesn’t threaten anyone? Will Denver be on offense for 35+ minutes in this spot?

For me, there are far more questions than answers in the McLaurin profile, should he return this weekend. I think there’s a decent chance he is the WR1 in this offense moving forward and maybe a viable PPR flex, but I’m waiting past this week and asking him to prove his health before assuming it.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (vs LAR)

The talent is there, but Tetairoa McMillan is a very raw player in a below-average offense.

His volume alone lands him in your lineup, and I think that’s right, even in a tough matchup. We saw a few lapses in concentration, but he paid off your optimism in him with a sharp route down the seam to open a window for the pass to be delivered.

The skills are more encouraging than the season stat line suggests, and that’s noteworthy for those looking forward. In terms of 2025, he has nine games with at least seven targets, but just three top-20 finishes to show for that involvement.

Tory Horton | SEA (vs MIN)

Ahead of Week 12, Tory Horton was placed on injured reserve due to this shin injury.

The expectation was for him to miss last week at the very least, but with this news, he’s shelved for another three games at minimum, and that has him firmly off of redraft fantasy radars.

He showed moments of viability and should be considered a deeper league sleeper next season, depending on where he sits on the depth chart. Still, when it comes to the stretch run of 2025, you can feel good about moving on and opening up a roster spot as a result.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at NE)

The spike plays aren’t going to come in bulk like they did last week.

That much we know.

He scored from 39 yards down last week on a third-down flea flicker that required an agile Jameis Winston cut to have time to get the throw off. Robinson was featured in a variety of ways early, reaching triple digits in receiving yards in the first quarter, the best single quarter of his career.

By 45 yards.

He finished the week with 199 air yards, more than he had in the first three weeks of November combined, and paid it off with a 9-156-1 final line. He’s seen an end zone target in consecutive games and 45 targets over his past four, volume that I’m comfortable betting on, even if the type of opportunity rarely looks the way it did over the weekend.

New England’s run defense showed some cracks last week against the Bengals, but I’ll go ahead and trust the first 11 weeks over the last four quarters. Assuming they remain one of the best units in that regard, projecting a high pass count is reasonable, and if that happens, Robinson is likely to make good on your faith.

I have him ranked as a low-end PPR WR2, leading the tier of receivers that fit this general profile (Khalil Shakir and Michael Pittman).

Xavier Legette | CAR (vs LAR)

Jalen Coker ran more routes than Xavier Legette on Monday night, and if you haven’t already moved on from the second-year receiver, you can safely do so.

He earned five targets on his 24 routes against the 49ers, a nice rate and maybe a signal that better things are to come in 2026, but he’s impressed in two games this season and been largely useless otherwise.

He’ll be in the mix for the WR2 role next year, and if Bryce Young can make some strides, maybe that role lands him on the backends of rosters, but you don’t need to get that cute down the stretch of this season.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at DAL)

We seem to be settling into a bit of a role for Xavier Worthy, and while I don’t think it’s optimal, the clarity is nice to have.

The burner has posted a target share north of 18.5% in three of his past four games, and while he doesn’t have an end zone target since Week 6, this four-game run has seen 40.7% of his targets come deep downfield.

The vertical targets naturally carry more variance with them, and that can be viewed as a negative, but when the alternative is to fight with Rashee Rice/Travis Kelce for short-to-mid-range targets, embracing the big play role is something I’m in favor of if one of every five throws is going his direction.

His 31-yard catch against the Colts last week was his longest since September, a small step in the right direction for a Chiefs team that has the gas pressed down. I don’t think you’re looking at the type of growth you were hoping for, but I’m happy with the potential outcome in a shootout environment like this on the fast track.

Worthy slides into my top 30 at the position this week, in the middle of the three Thanksgiving day speed-oriented receivers (behind Jameson Williams and ahead of Christian Watson).

Zay Flowers | BAL (vs CIN)

I’m not going to sell you on Zay Flowers as a league winner, but it’s this type of player that allows the league winners to make a difference.

In an era of variance outside of the truly elite, you generally know what you’re getting from Baltimore’s WR1. During this five-game win streak, Flowers has scored 11.1-14.1 PPR points in every contest, and the output largely ends up looking the same, even if we get there in a variety of ways.

You’re going to get 4-6 catches for 55-75 yards most weeks, and the quality of opponent really hasn’t mattered. Over that stretch, there have been games against the Browns/Vikings, but also the Jets/Dolphins/Bears.

I’d love to see some spike potential in a matchup like this, but he hasn’t seen an end zone target since Week 1. Mark Andrews and Derrick Henry account for all of the quality usage in close to the goal line, and that leaves us without much of a ceiling.

An elevated floor is appealing, but not exciting. Eat your vegetables and play Flowers: if the entree is good, the meal will be a success.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (vs MIN)

Maybe the Seahawks just don’t need a Robin to Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Batman?

AJ Barner had the 11-target game in Week 11 against the Rams, but that always felt like a red herring, and it proved as much on Sunday against the Titans as he posted a sub-17% target share for the fifth consecutive victory.

He was held under 25 receiving yards for the fourth time in five games and run under 25 routes for the 10th time in 11 contests: there simply isn’t a secondary option in this passing game that we need to concern ourselves with.

Barner did see an end zone look, and TD equity is the only reason you’d hold a player like this, hoping that the gravity of the offense alone is enough to get him into the top 15 at the position in any given week. Still, with that being just his third end zone look of the season, you’re chasing a ghost.

Brenton Strange | JAX (at TEN)

After missing a month-and-a-half with a hip injury, I was impressed with what Brenton Strange brought to the table in the win over the Cardinals on Sunday.

Not only did he catch five balls (his third straight healthy game with at least that many receptions), but he also led the team with 93 receiving yards and was on the field for 72.1% of their offensive snaps (25 routes run, third on the team behind only Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington).

Let’s not get too excited; this is still a limited offense, but the Jags are in the playoff mix, whether you want to admit it or not, and they need consistent chain movers to supplement a lack of explosive plays.

Strange isn’t a threat to win you your week, but in a plus-matchup like this, where we expect Jacksonville to score in the mid-20s, I like Strange as a top-15 option at the position that can help you tread water in an effective way.

Brock Bowers | LV (at LAC)

If you’re looking at the box score and see 11.5 PPR points from Brock Bowers last week, you’re likely indifferent to it. Good by TE standards, but not the type of ceiling you hope for from a player like this that you spent up on back in August.

Don’t get greedy.

Geno Smith led his team to 10 points on Sunday, the exact number of times he was sacked by a Browns pass rush that was living in the backfield. To get out of dodge with a usable week was a great result for you, and with 6+ catches (9+ targets) in three of four games since returning, I think you’re going to be just fine.

The scoring equity has been an issue and will remain so as long as this franchise lacks direction at quarterback. Bowers had the TD hat trick in his return to action against the Jags, but that’s the only game this season in which he has caught a touchdown pass.

The usage will be elite, but the production will be more of the “good” variety moving forward. He’s a starter, no question, but not the elite option you were hoping him to be.

Cade Otton | TB (vs ARI)

With Chris Godwin back, not to mention a banged-up Baker Mayfield, it feels like the clock is close to striking midnight on the days of Cade Otton as a PPR scam path to TE production.

He’s now underwhelmed in consecutive games (49 yards on 12 targets) and is nearing 400 days since his last touchdown. This profiles as a get-right game for a team that we still make as the favorite to win the division, but with Otton’s role no longer as clear as it was (five Bucs caught 2-4 passes in a mess of a performance over the weekend), you’re dealing with a low-upside asset that is losing value as the weeks pass.

Tampa Bay, in theory, has two good matchups coming up and a light rest of the season schedule. That could be viewed as a reason to keep Otton around, but it could also be a way for them to work Godwin and Bucky Irving back into their high-usage roles.

If I have Otton, I’m actively evaluating the options on the wire.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (vs JAX)

Chig Okonkwo’s athletic profile comes out to play once a game (20+ yard reception in three of his past four games), but this Titans offense is largely a lost cause for 2025, and that means you can do better when streaming the position.

The fourth-year TE hasn’t scored in a game this season and has earned just 16 targets over his past five games. I’m holding my Cam Ward stock and think he will be able to elevate the weapons around him with time, but that time isn’t now, and that means you can safely move on from just about everyone attached to this offense.

Cole Kmet | CHI (at PHI)

I can’t imagine you’re still holding onto Cole Kmet in a competitive setting, but if you are, and you’re still betting against Colston Loveland for some reason, it’s time to stop being stubborn.

This is a fun offense that is coming into its own under Ben Johnson, but part of that is him figuring out what offensive pieces he’s comfortable with. As the rookie’s star ascends, Kmet has failed to catch multiple passes in five of his past six games and is showing no signs of earning more work.

With his only touchdown of the season coming back in September, there really are no paths outside of a Loveland injury that gets Kmet close to my radar in standard leagues.

Colston Loveland | CHI (at PHI)

It took some time, especially when juxtaposed with Tyler Warren, but the Colston Loveland era in Chicago is underway.

He scored in the dramatic win over the Steelers last week and now has at least 9.5 PPR points in three of his past four. There’s a level of efficiency to the rookie’s game (over 1.80 yards per route in November), and with him averaging over 27 routes per game since Week 8, all signs are pointing in a positive direction as this Bears team looks to hold onto their lead in the NFC North.

Do I think they do? I do not, but that doesn’t mean Loveland can’t put up top-10 numbers at the position for the remainder of the season. His 12-yard touchdown last week was a great mix of timing and size leverage, as he set up the defender with a delayed route before cutting in front of him and giving Caleb Williams a perfect target window.

It was a play with a Mahomes/Kelce level of execution.

Settle down, they aren’t that, but they are developing nicely together, and I’d be very comfortable in counting on Loveland the rest of the way.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs CHI)

The more the Eagles explore high-volume roles for their star receivers, the less I find myself interested in Dallas Goedert.

He’s a good player, and I don’t doubt that he’ll be important if the Eagles want to rebound from an embarrassing loss, but I’m not tempted to go this route with my fantasy season on the line.

This offense isn’t built on passing volume, and that’s not going to change. Goedert hasn’t caught more than four passes in eight of his past nine games and has earned fewer than four targets in three of his past five.

You’re chasing a score (seven touchdowns this season) for a player that I’d price as the fifth most likely player on his own team to find the paint moving forward.

That’s bad math, and that has Goedert as a part of the streaming tier moving forward (toward the top of it this week, thanks to the matchup).

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at PIT)

A hamstring injury suffered in Week 10 left Dalton Kincaid labeled as “week-to-week” following the loss, making consecutive DNP’s not all that surprising.

I’d say that Buffalo’s lead tight end is a complicated player to rank, but he’s really not any different than all of the other pass catchers not named Khalil Shakir on this team.

He was a top 10 tight end in three of the first five weeks, finishing no worse than TE18 in any of those weeks. Since he’s been better than TE25 just once, it just so happened to be a TE3 finish against the Chiefs in Week 9.

No big deal. He might win you your week, steady the ship, or sink you completely.

Kincaid has as many touchdowns in eight games this season as he had in the first 29 of his career, but that doesn’t mean he’s a safe option. Once you get outside of the top two tiers at the position, the range of outcomes for all of these tight ends is dramatic, so the fact that he plays for an offense that I view as a top-5 unit in the league lands him as a low-end TE1 for me more often than not.

This is a tough matchup, but so was Kansas City at the beginning of the month, and he finished with a 6-101-1 stat line. If he suits up, I think you’re OK to follow suit. Due to the offense he plays on, Kincaid is a tick about the streaming tier, though it’s not by much, and if we are getting a compromised version of him, he’ll fall outside of my top 12 by the time this week kicks off.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (at IND)

Davis Mills funneled one-quarter of his targets in the direction of Dalton Schultz during his first start, but that rate declined over the past two weeks, and as a volume-based fantasy asset, that’s about as damning as it gets.

Regardless of who the quarterback is, we know that Schultz doesn’t hold a ton of scoring equity (five end-zone targets since the beginning of last season), and his deep-target rate has been slashed in half from a season ago.

If you want to stream Schultz under the premise that Houston is playing in an even-to-negative script and that the Colts (bottom-10 in opponent aDOT) are happy to give up those underneath completions, I won’t fault you.

I don’t think the upside is that of a week-winning asset, but if you told me that Schultz finishes this week with a 6-60 type of line, I’d believe you: he’s a low-end TE1 for me.

David Njoku | CLE (vs SF)

This offense leaves a lot to be desired.

That’s fair, but I also think it’s fair that they probably aren’t working with as positive a game script as they were on Sunday in Vegas again this season.

David Njoku and Harold Fannin combined to run just 26 routes, a low number regardless of the split.

That said, it was Fannin that saw the only tight end targets from Shedeur Sanders (six of them, catching five), and that’s the concerning part. The Browns aren’t going to be in scoring position on any kind of regular basis, and that makes volume non-negotiable, something that is heavily leaning in the direction of the rookie at this point.

I’d caution against crossing Njoku off of your streaming radar altogether. We still don’t really know what this Sanders-led offense is going to be, but he’s off of it for now and needs to show me some target-earning tendencies before I reconsider.

All reports have him as healthy from the knee injury that was bugging him, and that has me thinking that his 47.9% snap share (Fannin: 89.6%) is what we can/should expect over the final month.

Dawson Knox | BUF (at PIT)

Dawson Knox has been filling in for Dalton Kincaid over the past two weeks, and yet, he’s still searching for his first game with 40 receiving yards this season.

He was a reasonable roll of the dice given the number of routes he walked into for a team capable of scoring 30 points against anyone, but this experiment is over. It goes without saying that he’s not a factor when Kincaid is at full strength, and given what we’ve seen over the past two games (40 yards on seven targets), the ceiling isn’t high enough to stream in this fashion.

Evan Engram | DEN (at WAS)

Things are trending away from Evan Engram after a minor run of optimistic usage, and I wouldn’t blame you if you dumped him to stream the position weekly.

Waiting to do so is also viable thanks to this matchup, but Engram’s status as a glorified streamer is there. Over Denver’s past three games, he’s turned 72 routes into just 45 receiving yards, and his role may regress before it bounces back.

Troy Franklin is the real deal, and Pat Bryant seems to be coming on strong. I’m not overly confident in relying on Bo Nix to get any one pass catcher the ball consistently, and it would certainly seem that Engram is fourth in this hierarchy.

George Kittle | SF (at CLE)

George Kittle is back at full strength and sitting atop my second tier at the tight end position for both this week and the remainder of the season.

He’s one of just four players (not tight ends, players) with at least six grabs in each of his past three games, and the volume doesn’t appear likely to run dry anytime soon.

#49ers George Kittle’s message to Myles Garrett ahead of their upcoming matchup on Sunday:

“Chill” 😅 pic.twitter.com/ZP2Q8lSrVm

— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) November 26, 2025

In fact, it could increase if Kyle Shanahan elects to dial back the aggressive play calls, with Brock Purdy essentially a turnover waiting to happen when attempting to stretch the field.

There’s always a little more risk than we’d like in the Kittle profile because of his ability to excel as a blocker, but I’m willing to swallow that if it means I have a clear path at top-8 production, something we’ve gotten from the standout Niner in each of his past four games.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (vs SF)

If you’re betting on the Browns’ passing game, my thoughts are with you.

That said, Harold Fannin certainly seems like the right way to do so. None of the receivers is separating from one another in a meaningful way. While David Njoku theoretically offers competition to the rookie at the position, he was held without a target on Sunday in Vegas.

I’m not 100% committed to Fannin, and maybe that’s my problem. His role is trending in the right direction, but with Njoku still out there (47.9% snap share) and my lack of confidence in this offense to consistently clear 20 points, I do think the upside is awfully low.

That said, a first-year player moving in the right direction who has a 17+ yard catch in six straight is a convincing profile. Fannin is to be considered a top streaming candidate against a banged-up 49ers team that is on short rest, though I’m not saying you have a lineup lock for the remainder of the season.

Hunter Henry | NE (vs NYG)

We have 11 federal holidays in the US, and that’s roughly the timeline of Hunter Henry.

Over the past three seasons, give or take 11 months of football, Henry has cleared 14 PPR points nine times. A little under once a month, we get these seemingly random spike performances, and we love it when it’s expected (facing the Bengals would certainly qualify). Still, we do tend to get out over our skis a bit when projecting it forward.

Don’t get me wrong, the 7-115-1 stat line was impressive and could have been even better if he hadn’t had a touchdown wiped off the board due to Mack Hollins not properly executing the pick play. But is it predictive?

In the month before this explosion, Henry averaged 4.4 targets and 29 receiving yards per game. The development of Drake Maye is both a blessing and a curse in that it makes these sorts of weeks possible, but it also means that a 3-31-0 stat line could be waiting for us.

We are coming up on a federal holiday-heavy stretch, so I guess if you want to take my analogy really literally, you can fire up Henry for the remainder of the season.

I can’t. He’s a fringe TE streamer for me, just like he was last week and just like he’ll be in Week 15 (the Patriots go on bye in Week 14 and you don’t want to get me started on that).

Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs CIN)

As much as I like the profile of Isaiah Likely, there’s no reason to hold out hope in 2025.

He continues to split the work with Mark Andrews, and I’m not even sure that if they were one player, I’d fully trust it. Likely doesn’t have more than three receptions in a game this season and has cleared 17 yards just once.

I really want to believe in the player and am holding out hope that he finds his way to a breakout season, but those hopes are now for 2026. Likely has scored twice in the past 13 months, and based on current usage patterns, it’s unlikely to change any time soon.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs KC)

Jake Ferguson has been underwhelming in the yardage department since Week 4, and Dallas went to someone named Brevyn Spann-Ford for the TE score last week during the comeback win against Philadelphia.

The volume and the efficiency (eight games with 5+ catches and an 84.4% catch rate this season) lock in Ferguson as a no-brainer starter every week. Still, with little per catch upside, his stock has taken a hit as touchdown variance has swung away from him (one score in his past four games after scoring six times in his previous four).

This is a tough matchup, but I don’t think Ferugson is a matchup-dependent player. He offers a safety valve for Dak Prescott, and if that role is needed near the end zone, he scores. If not, you get what we saw last week, an unexciting 8-12 PPR points that won’t kill you.

Jonnu Smith | PIT (vs BUF)

If you’re asking which Steeler tight end you should consider streaming, you, friend, are asking the wrong question.

First Quarter TE Roles

• Darnell Washington: 11 snaps and 4 routes
• Jonnu Smith: 5 snaps and 3 routes
• Pat Freiermuth: 7 snaps and 3 routes

The team doesn’t want to commit to any of them, so how are we supposed to?

For the game, Smith led the way with 23 routes, and it doesn’t matter. The position as a whole ran 58 routes, and the eight targets were as evenly distributed as possible. There’s no reason to look to this offense for anything through the air, and that includes the TE position, even with the league-wide low bar to clear.

Juwan Johnson | NO (at MIA)

Juwan Johnson might be the least fun, productive fantasy asset on the board this season.

He’s given us at least five catches of a touchdown in five straight, production that pays the bills at the position. In November, he’s hauled in 13 of 15 balls thrown his way, and his six receptions against the Falcons last were his most since opening the season with eight receptions.

Do we crack the code?

• 6+ catch games this season vs. Bird teams: 3 (in three games)
• 6+ catch games this season vs. non-Bird teams: 0 (in eight games)

Dolphins … not a bird, confirmed.

For the forward-thinking managers out there, only one bird game remains on the schedule for New Orleans (at Atlanta in Week 18), and under that logic, we are looking at a diminished ceiling for the remainder of the season.

It might be the bird thing, or the fact that he has two red-zone targets since Week 6. Johnson’s resume rises toward the top of the streaming radar in a decent matchup like this week, and he sits at TE12 for me this week.

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (at NYJ)

Kyle Pitts hasn’t reached 40 receiving yards in a game this month and hasn’t scored since September.

There was some hope that, with Drake London sidelined and Kirk Cousins taking over, Pitts could at least give us top-12 numbers the rest of the way through his increased role.

Instead, and we are only talking a one-game sample, but we do have an extended run of disappointment to fall back on, Pitts caught two passes and averaged under a fantasy point per target (PPR) for the first time this season.

Early in the year, we had a path to a reasonable floor with the former first-round picks because of a regressed aDOT (Weeks 1-8: 5.5 yards). For whatever reason, the Falcons have pivoted from that plan, and he’s posted an aDOT north of 11.5 yards in three of his past four games, sacrificing the marginal floor we had for upside that isn’t coming to fruition.

I like Atlanta to win this game and thus put some points on the board. If you’re stuck, I could see you squinting at this profile, seeing a handful of targets in an offense we think can have some success, and talking yourself into it.

I’m fine with that, but I’m not labeling him as anything more than a fancy streamer at this point: the floor is simply too low and too likely in any given spot to graduate him above that tier.

Luke Musgrave | GB (at DET)

As it turns out, Tucker Kraft might just be #good.

At the running back position, a backup can step in for an injured starter and often return 80-90% of the value if given the opportunity. It almost never works that way at the receiver position, and historically, it’s all over the place at tight end.

For every Isaiah Likely that seems poised to take a leap when Mark Andrews sits, there’s a Brock Wright that isn’t used the way that Sam LaPorta is.

I think we are seeing that the latter is more descriptive of the situation in Green Bay than the former.

Luke Musgrave has been held to just 19 routes over the past two weeks, and while I’d usually tell you that earning four targets in those games is a great sign, the fact that he’s turned them into just six yards is what has me trending far away from this situation.

He did force a 24-yard DPI penalty on the first drive last week, so all is not lost, but for those hoping Musgrave would walk into a viable role every week, that dream is gone. With Jayden Reed trending in a positive direction, things might get worse before they get better.

Mark Andrews | BAL (vs CIN)

Mark Andrews had a very catchable end zone target on Sunday against the Jets, but he couldn’t convert, and that doomed him as a touchdown-or-bust option at the position.

Sure, I could highlight his 20-12 edge in routes over Isaiah Likely, but does it matter? Both saw three targets, and you’re doing nothing but chasing a score with the 30-year-old at this point.

Over the past two seasons, he’s scored on 16 of his 88 catches, making him one of the better per-reception producers at the position, but not a role that carries much in the way of consistency.

He’s a viable option this week because of the cushy matchup and implied point total for the Ravens. That train of thought holds for the next few weeks (they get an extended week ahead of playing the Steelers next week and then go to Cincinnati in Week 15), and that makes him a reasonable stream-and-hold, but if you’re rostering him and thinking you have a “safe” option or the position figured out, I think you’re wrong.

If value opens up on the wire for any reason in your league, I wouldn’t hesitate to make the move.

Mason Taylor | NYJ (vs ATL)

Mason Taylor pretty clearly has a role and is someone I’m watching for 2026 (27 of their 32 routes belonged to him last week), but this offense needs to be avoided like the plague when it comes to pass catchers, no matter who is under center.

Use the final month of this year scouting Taylor: he was a second-round pick in April and has some juice. That’s the type of profile I want to be early on, but not this early. The rest of the 2025 season is a lost cause: I’ve got my eyes on 2026 if this offense can get even slightly below average play under center.

Michael Mayer | LV (at LAC)

You’re late to the party if you’re reading this, but Michael Mayer can be dropped without hesitation.

On Sunday, Brock Bowers ran nine routes for every one of his, and Ian Thomas actually worked ahead of Mayer in terms of routes and targets against the Browns.

This offense is a mess on too many levels to count, and sustaining two viable tight ends is something even the top units struggle with. Mayer’s contingent value isn’t nearly high enough to justify holding: if Bowers were to get hurt, you get access to a marginal player in a Geno Smith-led offense.

Is that really worth waiting for?

Mike Gesicki | CIN (at BAL)

Mike Gesicki missed more than a month with the pectoral injury and seems to be coming back at the right time in terms of fantasy upside with Joe Burrow trending in a positive direction.

In his return to action last week against the Patriots, Gesicki accounted for six of Cincinnati’s nine tight end targets and was the only player at the position to see a look on the plus side of the field.

This is a player who caught 65 balls last season. Of course, it should be noted that he has scored just twice over the past three seasons (41 games played), but there is a floor production profile to chase here.

I expect last week (4-35-0) to be on the lower level of expectations, but not far from the mean. If you need 9-11 PPR points, I think Gesicki is a reasonable roll of the dice this week and moving forward, though I’m not confident that he has access to a ceiling that is much higher than that.

Noah Fant | CIN (at BAL)

Before last week, he had gotten a touchdown or a handful of catches from Noah Fant in three of four games, production that doesn’t stand out, but also doesn’t kill you.

That time is over.

Mike Gesicki returned, as expected, from his pectoral injury and dominated the TE usage in a game where Ja’Marr Chase was inactive.

Week 12 Participation

• Gesicki: 26 routes and 6 targets
• Tanner Hudson: 13 routes and 1 target
• Drew Sample: 10 routes and 1 target
• Fant: 7 routes and 1 target

I’m not 100% sure that the tight end role in Cincinnati holds any value moving forward, but I’m confident that if it does, it’s Gesicki’s role and not Fant’s.

Oronde Gadsden | LAC (vs LV)

Week 10 was cut short with a quad injury for Orondo Gadsden, but he wasn’t listed on the final injury report before the Week 12 bye, thus making “health” something we can’t use as an excuse for his subpar showing.

• Last two games: 11 targets and 54 yards
• Four games prior: 27 targets and 377 yards

We probably got ahead of ourselves in labeling him as locked in TE1, but that doesn’t mean this profile is fraudulent. He owns an 8.8 aDOT for the season, a strong mark for a tight end that has fueled him to average over two PPR points per target this season.

The Chargers should threaten 30 points Sunday afternoon, and that sort of game environment elevates Gadsden into my top 12 at the position.

He’s not an elite option, but ranking that high in a week with no one on a bye is impressive and should give you confidence in playing him, even with the recent struggles.

Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs BUF)

That’s now four touchdowns in a six-game stretch for Pat Freiermuth, and while I don’t mind chasing touchdowns at the position, this isn’t the way I’d do it.

Patty Football is operating as part of a three-way TE committee in an offense that makes moving the ball look painful at times. He’s come through lately, but the man has 13 targets this season in enemy territory.

Are you really willing to back that sort of resume, with or without Aaron Rodgers under center?

I’ve thought that Freiermuth wasn’t the right way to chase TE TDs in Pittsburgh this season, and that might be wrong. However, he’s still not the way I’d do it at the position when looking league-wide, understanding that there are a handful of options on your wire that either hold a more fruitful role (Freiermuth has one game with 5+ targets this season) in terms of volume or scoring equity.

Sam LaPorta | DET (vs GB)

“Very, very slim” was how Dan Campbell described the chances of us seeing Sam LaPorta (back) again in 2025, and that means you can safely move on from the third-year tight end.

LaPorta still has another year left on his deal, and with his age-25 season coming up for a team that wants to chase annual success, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the organization is proceeding with caution.

Brock Wright will continue to fill the TE role on this offense. However, prevailing wisdom suggests that their three elite skill-position players (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs) will continue to do the heavy lifting, with the TE position as a whole more of an afterthought/complementary piece.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at SEA)

The Vikings are replicating some of what the Ravens do with Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson is the test subject, but if the team has to get cute to get the tight end involved, is it really someone we want to count on?

I don’t think it is.

Hockenson took a direct snap and caught all four of his targets (no minor accomplishment in a J.J. McCarthy-led offense that saw all of his teammates catch just 57.1% of their looks), and yet, we are left with 5.9 PPR points and another negative return on investment.

I don’t know if it’s fair to dismiss McCarthy as a prospect outright. Still, it’s clear that he’s not processing the game at the speed needed to move an offense forward with any sort of consistency, and that’s giving Justin Jefferson issues every week, never mind a tight end who has scored just twice over the past two seasons (21 games played, 113 targets earned).

This is obviously a tough matchup, but I’m not sure that I’d feel any differently in whatever a “good” matchup for this offense looks like. This is a unit stuck in the mud, and an increase in Hockenson’s usage probably isn’t high on the list of ways they plan to dig out.

He doesn’t need to be rostered, and I’m not the least bit tempted to stream in this direction for Week 13.

Theo Johnson | NYG (at NE)

Seemingly, everyone has fun when Jameis Winston is under center: fans, teammates, and opponents, there are literally no exceptions.

We saw some of that fun spill over in the direction of Theo Johnson, as the elite athlete had a pair of chunk plays (catches of 24 and 39 yards) in the overtime loss to the Lions over the weekend.

For the season, Johnson is averaging 10.9 yards per catch and brings an interesting dynamic to this offense, one currently built around Wan’Dale Robinson. I like how he projects in this unit as a whole, and while the Pats are a tough matchup, they have allowed a tight end to clear his season average in eight of the past nine weeks.

I don’t think the Giants will move the ball with great levels of consistency this week, but I do think it’s fair to expect their starting tight end to flirt with double-digit PPR points, and that’s enough to justify streaming him.

New York goes on bye after this game, and that means you might have to cut him loose, but if he can put together another strong 60 minutes of film, I’d reconsider.

• Week 15 vs. Commanders
• Week 16 vs. Vikings
• Week 17 at Raiders

Travis Kelce | KC (at DAL)

Travis Kelce was rather ordinary against the Colts over the weekend (4-43-0 on six targets), but he did have a rushing TD taken off the board on the second drive, 6.1 points that would have made an underwhelming day a profitable one.

That stuff happens, and there’s not much you can do about it.

We seem poised to get “Postseason Kelce” earlier this year than years past, given when Kansas City sits in the standings, and that means more than enough volume to justify feeling good about starting him. However, the spike in Xavier Worthy’s usage last week (eight targets) hinders the upside in my projection profile.

Kelce has been living in that 8-14 PPR point range for the majority of this season, and that’s what you can expect moving forward. This Dallas defense has looked better coming out of the bye, but that elevates them to average, and an average matchup isn’t nearly enough to scare me off of Kelce in a meaningful way.

Trey McBride | ARI (at TB)

Trey McBride is the closest thing we have to inevitable at the position, and it’s nowhere near close.

McBride NFL Rankings Since Week 6, 2024

• 876 routes, 3rd most
• 226 targets, 2nd most
• 171 receptions, 3rd most
• 1,768 receiving yards, 6th most
• 783 yards gain after the catch, 7th most

He and Ja’Marr Chase are the only two players to rank top-5 in each of those first three categories over that stretch. Ja’Marr freakin’ Chase, the winner of the 2024 receiving triple crown and the consensus 1.01 in drafts this summer.

McBride is running the majority of his routes from the slot this season, unlike last year, while his aDOT has ticked up slightly. With Jacoby Brissett unlocking the scoring equity that we always thought was there, our wildest dreams are coming true, and McBride profiles as a league winner.

Where he falls in the ADP pecking order for 2026 will be interesting, but that’s a conversation for a different day. For now, all you have to do is click him into your lineup each week and feel privileged to do so.

Tyler Warren | IND (vs HOU)

It felt like the Chiefs did a good job with Tyler Warren on Sunday, and he still finished with seven targets (26.3% reception share and 22.6% target share).

That’s the difference between a good and a great asset at the position.

The rookie has cleared nine PPR points in nine of 11 games this season, and I see no reason to expect anything different moving forward. Over his past three games, the Colts have adjusted the routes of their standout rookie, further elevating his floor.

• Weeks 4-8: 7.4-yard aDOT
• Weeks 9-12: 3.1-yard aDOT

At this point, a handful of catches feels like a baseline, and that’s more than 90% of the TE pool can claim. He’ll struggle to keep up with Trey McBride at the tippy top of the TE board based on his importance in Arizona. Still, I’ll take my chances with Warren against just about anyone at the position after that, and that’s tremendous value based on the price you paid this summer.

Zach Ertz | WAS (vs DEN)

Zach Ertz has caught exactly four passes in four straight games, though to get there in Madrid against the Dolphins, it required a season-high eight targets.

At best, the veteran tight end is a low-end floor play in deeper leagues, but in a game like this, where Washington will have to fight to score 20 points, I’m not interested in a middling floor that comes with virtually no upside.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

You can do better.

There are a few streaming options I prefer to Ertz playing on Thanksgiving, and if those TEs aren’t available, Theo Johnson plays in the final game of the week and is ranked higher for me this week.